crypto洞察者

2024.12.12 Daily Market Analysis

As of now, the market price of Bitcoin is around 100300. The one-hour movement of BTC cannot be said to be exactly the same, and it is also carved out of the same mold. It was not until yesterday that it reached the lps that it was found to be the 1-hour bottom structure. Naked K can only look at the trend. Wyckoff's accumulation stage E is now. I recently studied Wyckoff. It is too similar. I believe it.

The two lowest points were both during the Asian sleeping time. Those who get on the bus can only place orders or get on the bus at the lps. The profit and loss ratio is indeed pitiful.

Currently, the 1-hour is in a correction. You can consider entering the market when the correction is almost there. Bitcoin should have a new high this month.
Once the trend is confirmed, the short position is the fuel at this moment

Intraday pressure and support
BTC pressure 101000/101800/103000
Support 100000/99000/97800
ETH pressure 4000/4080/4170
Support 3900/3820/3750
Spot sector

There are too many good coins and not enough money. If you want to buy something but don’t dare to start, you can consult Brother Niu, and Brother Niu can give you a free ride.
As of now, Brother Niu’s holdings

aave link ena turbo grass pepe goat contracts were bought as spot

The two aave and link recommended today were bought following Trump.

xvg is still carrying orders

The hair I lost with programmers has all turned into this real trading data!!!!

Over the past year, I have almost lived in front of my computer.
From strategy logic to code implementation, from backtesting optimization to real trading validation, I have stayed up countless nights with my programmer brothers, drinking who knows how many boxes of Red Bull.
My head is almost bald, but what I got in return is a gold fully automated trading system that I am increasingly confident in.

It doesn't rely on feelings, only executes rules; it doesn't fear staying up late, monitoring the market 7x24 hours; it strictly controls risks, with every trade carrying a stop loss.
The most important thing is — it really produced a curve that allows me to sleep soundly.

Today, Brother Niu decided to do one thing: publicly share trades.
Not to show off, but to find a group of like-minded traders — if you also believe discipline beats intuition and systems beat luck, then welcome to follow my real trading.
You can watch it execute with your own eyes, verify each signal, and witness how far this strategy, traded with hair, can go.

If you want to follow trades or observe, you can search for

Coin Circle King - Brother Qi

Really, I can't sleep at all.

An hour of divergence, two hours of failed rebound

ETH has rebounded much stronger than Bitcoin
Remember, it's a rebound, not a reversal, and it's not over yet!

Recently, after the significant drop in Bitcoin, there hasn't been a proper rebound, and many people are wondering what the reason is. Xiaohongshu even suggested that it’s the fault of Strategy! It only added some volatility; the core issue is that several things came together:

1. Strategy didn't hold back but added some panic:

This company actually invested over 800 million dollars to buy the dip during the crash, and its holdings are almost 650,000 BTC. However, it's not having a good time itself—the market value has dropped to 59 billion dollars, which is lower than the value of the Bitcoin it holds, and its previous methods of issuing stocks and borrowing money to buy Bitcoin are becoming increasingly unfeasible. Moreover, it might get kicked out of the mainstream index, leading to funds being forced to sell its stocks, which makes the market even more anxious, but it only contributed to a slight drop, not the main reason.

2. The real reasons for the severe drop and inability to rebound:

- Federal Reserve's decisions: They said interest rates might not be cut in December, and the dollar has become valuable (Bitcoin is negatively correlated with the dollar), so everyone is hesitant to buy Bitcoin, which is high-risk;

- Large institutions withdrawing funds: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen money flowing out for many consecutive days, totaling over 1.3 billion dollars. Once large funds leave, liquidity deteriorates;

- The vicious cycle of selling more as prices drop: After breaking key price levels like 100,000 and 90,000, many leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated, leading to further drops. Retail investors are also hesitant to buy, and with no one to take over, it naturally cannot rebound;

- Technical issues: It didn't reach 120,000 before dropping, and now it has broken many support levels. Those who understand technical analysis are also selling, leading to a sharper decline.

BTC plummeted to $82,000, Hyperliquid saw over $10 million in liquidations across five accounts.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, BTC dropped to $82,000 and ETH fell to $2,669 during a sharp decline.
During this minute, there were a total of 5 accounts with liquidations exceeding $10 million, all occurring on Hyperliquid's positions. Among them, the largest liquidation reached as high as $36.78 million.

$BTC has advanced to the front warehouse, and the new round of starting point for the rise is at most 78, aiming for a rebound.
Remember, it's a rebound, not a reversal. It seems to be following the first script, and it's highly likely to go to a number starting with seven again.

Tonight we won't be live streaming because we're researching strategies. I also mentioned during yesterday's stream that we could maintain our capital losses, but that position was really good. Brother Niu himself didn't exit, and after adding to the position this morning, it seems to have recovered.

Tonight, I'll write out the scripts for the next few days.

Script 1: $btc first rebounds to around 98, and then seeing that Bitcoin is so strong, we must chase it to see new highs; then there will be a sharp drop directly to below 86, and finally it will recover, killing both long and short positions.
[smile]


Script 2: $BTC will directly break through 84 tonight heading towards 78, a lot of people will chase the short, and then flee, the bull is gone, Bitcoin is heading towards the 6xxx range, hurry and run away, damn blockchain scam! Then Bitcoin will hold directly around 78-8, and rebound back to 86 to blow up the short positions!!!!!!

$eth has fully diverged, target increase of 350-400 dollars

Is zec awesome?

Level upgrade, actually I wanted to say it's stable, but I was afraid many wouldn't believe it. I'm also a bit tipsy right now sharing my true feelings with you all. The level upgrade is quite impressive, a 99% win rate is no joke.

How about it?

$zec one hour level upgrade, target 760

Gold can enter

du has started shorting again—opening huge short positions with maximum leverage on BTC (40x), XRP (20x), and ZEC (10x), with a total position size of 196 million dollars!
1,555.56 BTC (148.5 million dollars)
12.34 million XRP (27.4 million dollars)
31,016 ZEC (20.4 million dollars)

The Federal Reserve's December meeting faces a tough decision, with the probabilities of rate cuts and maintaining the current rate being roughly equal.


Aaron Hill, Chief Market Analyst at FPMarkets, stated in a report that the recent government shutdown has led to a lack of official data, presenting a challenging scenario for the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. There are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and a cautious stance is being maintained. Although some officials support a rate cut, "meaningful hawkish repricing has already occurred." According to LSEG data, the current probabilities for a rate cut and for maintaining the rate are approximately equal.

Giant Whale 66k ETH Borrow just bought 16,937 ETH

Total purchase amount: 422,175 ETH

BTC eighty-six thousand

Regarding the market, I see many people are very confused, constantly asking Brother Niu where $btc will go, where $ETH will go. This is not something that can be determined all at once. In this wave of small bear market, BTC may drop to 86,000, and ETH may drop to 2,600-2,800.

When making trades, consider extreme scenarios where it might drop to 2,400-2,500.

Be mindful of slippage: if the market drops rapidly, the actual transaction price may be lower than the target price by 1%-5% (large platforms have less impact, while small platforms have greater slippage).

The surge you thought the night before yesterday was merely a rebound from the five-day moving average, followed by a rapid drop due to ETH level upgrading not breaking the secondary level. The market situation during this time is complex; it still has a small decline, then begins to fluctuate, rebounding possibly to above 4,000, and then slowly dropping to the target range of 1%-5% below.

You should keep checking my Weibo; you can't just read one post and then ignore the next. Haven't I been reminding everyone about BTC at 86,000 these days?

It is impossible not to trade in this torturous hellish market, but the best trading approach is to follow the strategy, letting machines take profit and stop loss, preventing oneself from being swept away by market emotions!

Finally, here’s a saying for everyone: the market is brewing direction in its fluctuations; discipline is the compass to navigate through the fog.

😀😀😀😀 The message screen is full of smoke bombs

Five-day line rebound, the fluctuations are quite large, so I opened a mouse warehouse

This foreign guy, using 60,000 USD

Six AI intelligences (Image 1), each placing 10,000 for short selling, overall it's a loss.

The facts prove that the strategy doesn't work, it's not related to AI, relying solely on algorithms is also not feasible, advanced candlestick technology support is still needed!

Now take a look at what we've done, just asking if you think it's awesome (Image 2) ​​​