渔夫论金

My brothers who can't be found can come to the chat room to find me

Looking solely at the EMA indicator, you will always only capture lagging market signals.
The same EMA55, in a downtrend, is an unambiguous resistance level; in a ranging market, it will be repeatedly crossed by the price, rendering it ineffective.
Only by combining price action with the position of the EMA can the trend direction truly become clear.

Breaking down the complete logic with practical cases:

1. A triangular consolidation pattern appears in a downtrend, and after breaking out, the trend continues. At this time, the EMA55 is located above the price and must strictly be regarded as a resistance level.

2. The price enters a bottoming range, repeatedly testing the lows or even falsely breaking below, but "the bears are unable to create new lows," which is a preliminary signal of reversal.

3. The price breaks above the upper boundary of the range, retesting the previous high and the resonant position of the EMA55, with a second pullback not breaking the structural low (forming a higher low), and bullish strength begins to dominate.

4. A true strong reversal is established, stemming from a resonance of three signals: breaking the EMA55 + breaking the previous high + continuous large bullish candles, the trend shifts from a previous "potential reversal" to a complete transition into the "effective reversal" stage.

EMA is never an isolated trading basis; the EMA detached from price action is merely a lagging line; only by combining the two can one accurately judge the trend - whether it is weakening, reversing, or currently in the main upward phase.

The fluctuation pattern of gold has not changed, and it is the right time to go long at 4190.

During yesterday's US trading session, the price of gold experienced a rapid decline, drawing the attention of countless traders. The market's bearish sentiment briefly intensified. However, key support levels demonstrated strong resilience, with the previous bottom holding firm, and the rapid decline did not continue. The fluctuation range of gold remains solid.

Entering today's Asian session, technical indicators on the market are gradually showing a weakening trend, and the bullish counterattack is currently insufficient, with the bears also failing to break through key support. The battle between bulls and bears has become stalemated. Based on the current market performance, the probability of breaking the fluctuation range in the short term has significantly decreased, and the market is likely to continue oscillating within the range.

In a fluctuating market, accurately identifying entry points is key to profitability. Currently, the gold pullback at 4190 is an excellent opportunity to position long orders! The target above can be directly set to the range of 4216-4224, which is a common resistance level in the recent fluctuating trend. After reaching this range, one can choose to take profits and exit. At the same time, to strictly control trading risks, the stop-loss level should be set at 4175. If this level is breached, immediate stop-loss and exit are necessary to avoid deep losses.

Before the fluctuation pattern is broken, do not blindly chase after rising prices or sell off in a panic. Follow the principles of range trading, relying on key support and resistance to sell high and buy low, to firmly grasp the benefits of oscillation!

With just an 800 deposit, such returns in the counterfeit market are a rare surprise that is hard to come by;

But when switching to the gold market, the mature trading mechanism and stable market trends allow you to lock in equivalent returns at any time,

Without relying on luck for opportunities, profit is visible and tangible.

Evening crude oil long strategy on December 8: Multiple favorable factors support the breakthrough at $60

On the evening of December 8, the crude oil market showed clear bullish signals. With multiple driving factors resonating, a new round of rising momentum is building up.

On the macro level, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to rise, putting pressure on the US dollar index and providing strong support for crude oil assets priced in dollars. The geopolitical situation is further exacerbating the situation, with the ongoing escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela directly triggering market concerns about crude oil supply, increasing the risk of supply disruptions and further raising expectations for rising crude oil prices.

On the technical side, crude oil prices demonstrate strong support at the $60 level, with recent trends forming a structure of oscillating upward movement. Short-term moving averages are collectively turning upward, and the bullish trend is taking shape, achieving perfect resonance between technical and fundamental aspects.

Evening operation suggestions recommend adopting a low-buying strategy, with the possibility of building long positions in batches within the 59-59.3 dollar range. A stop-loss should be set below 58.6 dollars to strictly control risks, with the target set at the 60.2-61.5 dollar range. It should be noted that the geopolitical situation has sudden developments, so it is essential to enter the market with light positions, pay close attention to changes in news, and avoid losses caused by extreme market conditions.

A method to identify convergence in oscillation! Capturing major market signals in a 4-hour cycle

I will teach you the simplest and most practical method for judging oscillation convergence, allowing you to easily grasp the opportunity to initiate a trend:

1. Switch to the 4-hour trading cycle and pull up the BBW (Bollinger Band Width) indicator;

2. Keep a close eye on the 'bandwidth' value curve in the indicator, observing whether it continues to approach the lower edge of the 'contraction' curve;

3. When the blue bandwidth line gets closer to the lower green contraction line, it means the probability of a breakout is continuously increasing, and a big market move is just around the corner!

Of course, you can also flexibly adjust based on your preferred trading cycle.

Essentially, the BBW indicator is a secondary data processing of the Bollinger Bands, and its core logic is completely consistent with the traditional technical analysis principle that 'narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate a trend.' The trading market always follows the cyclical pattern of 'chaotic oscillation → convergence breakout → trend explosion → back to chaos,' and what we can capture is always the probability advantage, not a deterministic conclusion.

The closer the blue bandwidth line is to the lower edge, the higher the probability of a significant market move and the simultaneous increase in the winning rate of breakout trades, but it does not mean the market will definitely move as expected. Grasping the probability advantage is the key to winning in trading.

On December 8, last week, London spot gold rose and fell, with a weekly decline of 0.77% to $4196.78 per ounce. This week will welcome a super central bank week, with interest rate decisions from not only the Federal Reserve but also the central banks of Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and others. At 3 a.m. Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce its December interest rate decision. In addition to focusing on whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman, the latest quarterly economic forecasts, and the internal game situation are also market highlights. Gold may experience significant short-term fluctuations today.

In terms of macro data, the U.S. ADP employment number in November decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The labor market has shown signs of weakness, but as of the week ending November 29, the initial unemployment claims decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 220,000 and the previous value of 216,000, indicating limited willingness for corporate layoffs, which has salvaged market perceptions of the labor market. Additionally, the ISM services PMI index in the U.S. rose to 52.6 in November, a new nine-month high, with an expectation of 52.0. The services index was supported by extended supplier delivery times and further improvement in business activity.

Last week, the U.S. President hinted that the next Federal Reserve Chairman would be Hassett. The market believes that if Hassett is elected, it will strengthen bets on a dovish stance, but balancing monetary stimulus with inflation poses challenges. It is also noteworthy that, according to Reuters, the Bank of Japan may raise its policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the first rate hike since January this year. The expectation of the Bank of Japan resuming interest rate hikes may lead to a wave of unwinding in past "yen carry trades," putting significant pressure on global risk assets, especially U.S. dollar assets.

Last week, influenced by the Federal Reserve maintaining dovish expectations and no new developments in the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical situation, gold performed relatively strongly but continued to operate within a volatile range. The market's focus on the Federal Reserve's meeting is on the subsequent interest rate cut expectations and whether there will be policy expectations injected into the market after ending the balance sheet reduction. Overall, the market has fully priced in a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, so the meeting may be a buy-the-news event for gold, with significant short-term fluctuations expected today, so caution is advised.

From a 4-hour technical perspective, we can capture two key signals: first, the KDJ indicator is weakening and has fallen below the critical line; second, the MACD has failed to provide positive guidance. The combination of these two signals suggests that gold prices are likely to remain in a small range of fluctuation in the short term. In practice, special attention can be paid to support levels 4195, 4183, 4156, and resistance levels 4221, 4235, as these points can serve as important references for short-term trading.

Looking at the fundamentals, this week's Federal Reserve meeting is the market's "main event." Currently, 88.4% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the uniqueness of this meeting lies in the significant policy disagreements within the Fed, making it the most controversial meeting in years. For traders, it is crucial to focus on the policy direction and internal dynamics released by the meeting, as this will directly affect the future trend of gold.

The truly effective trend line must meet two core conditions simultaneously:

1. Anchoring the essential starting point of the trend continuation: accurately corresponding to higher lows (HL) in an uptrend, and locking in lower highs (LH) in a downtrend, definitely not invalid points in random fluctuations;

2. Verification through practical experience of key structures: for example, a support zone pushing to a new high after a pullback, or a resistance zone triggering a new low after testing; only with structural resonance can the trend line possess practical value.

Meeting the above two points, the trend line will demonstrate extremely strong stability and can provide precise guidance throughout the market; conversely, if the connected points lack structural significance, it is merely a "pseudo trend line" that deceives oneself and will ultimately mislead decisions.

In fact, the core of the trend line is never about how accurately it is drawn, but whether it can penetrate the market's surface and accurately identify the true turning points of the trend. Understanding the trend structure, drawing the correct trend line is just a natural result - this is precisely the core logic of technical analysis!

Why did we decisively turn to gold trading?

The core logic is clear: zero transaction fees reduce trading cost losses,

low entry barriers break down financial barriers,

and with the flexible property of quick recovery,

the efficiency of profit realization is further upgraded—this is precisely the optimal track for stable profits in the current volatile market!

12.5 Friday Morning Gold Analysis

Yesterday, gold continued to oscillate at high levels. The U.S. unemployment claims data released in the evening was lower than expected, causing a brief bearish reaction. After dipping, gold quickly reversed in a V-shape and regained lost ground, achieving the bullish target of 4220 set yesterday. Although it has maintained slight fluctuations recently, the bullish recovery has been strong after each pullback, combined with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (current market probability of rate cuts exceeds 89%) and geopolitical risks providing support, the overall bullish structure remains solid.

From a technical perspective, the MACD golden cross on the four-hour chart continues to rise, the Bollinger Bands are extending upwards, and the KDJ indicator is gradually releasing bullish momentum. The key support to watch below is the 4180-4160 range, which is both a crucial support level from previous pullbacks and a densely packed buying area for bulls. The validity of this support has been verified multiple times; the short-term resistance above focuses on 4240-4250, and once broken, it will advance towards the 4260-4300 integer level.

Trading Suggestions

Long Position Setup: Enter in the 4160-4180 range, target 4260-4300

Defensive Settings: Stop loss below 4150 (if it effectively breaks below, the short-term bullish logic will pause)

Core Idea: The short-term oscillation does not change the mid-term upward trend. Pulling back to support levels remains a good opportunity to go long. Be cautious of short-term volatility triggered by data, and after breaking key points, you may increase positions accordingly.

From Technological Utopia to Digital Gaming Field: The Underlying Rules of the Cryptocurrency Circle Have Been Reconstructed!

The early idealistic creed of the cryptocurrency circle — "Code is Law, On-chain is Security" — collapsed dramatically in the incident involving Chen Zhi from the Cambodian Prince Group and LuBian. When national power intervenes, technical loopholes become the breakthrough point for the "legal transfer" of assets, completely shattering the absolute security illusion of decentralization.

The game rules have long been iterated and upgraded. Today’s crypto field is no longer a three-way game among retail investors, institutions, and hackers; it has become a new digital battlefield for covert wars between nations. Your on-chain assets may have already been invisibly marked, exposed to multiple risk perspectives.

We must face the core proposition: When the ideal of decentralized technology encounters the reality of centralized power, how can we safeguard asset security? The answer lies only in evolution — asset diversification, maintaining a low-profile position, and upgrading top-level security protection; these three principles have become the essential courses for survival in the new era of crypto investment.

Core formula for trading risk control: Risk = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. No matter how big the fluctuations are, you can still control the risk steadily!

Most traders mistakenly believe that 'risk is determined by price fluctuations,' falling into a cognitive fallacy—the real risk is never the amplitude of market fluctuations, but rather the size of your position, the stop loss settings, and the preset maximum loss threshold.

The core logic of trading risk control is hidden in a simple formula: Risk = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. As long as you strictly lock each trade's risk at 1% of your account funds, no matter if the market fluctuates 2%, 5%, or even 10%, it cannot exceed your risk boundary.

The key is not 'how much the market fluctuates,' but whether you have done three things well:

How much position size to enter?

Where to precisely set the stop loss?

Is the actual risk strictly limited to within 1%?

Let me give two straightforward practical examples:

If the price fluctuates by 2%, you only need to open a position of 50% (half position), actual risk = 50% × 2% = 1%;

Even if the price fluctuates extremely by 4%, as long as you compress the position to 25% (1/4 position), the risk remains = 25% × 4% = 1%.

Market fluctuations are external variables, always uncontrollable; but risk is an internal variable, completely under your control. You cannot influence price trends, but you can firmly lock the risk within the preset framework by adjusting position sizes and clarifying stop losses—fluctuations can be infinitely amplified, but risk can always be actively compressed by you.

This is the essence of trading risk control: abandon control of the uncontrollable market, and fully master the controllable trading behavior. By safeguarding the 1% risk boundary, you can survive for a long time in the ever-changing market and steadily profit.

Disrupting Cognition! The Core of Fibonacci Trading: Don't Focus on Numbers, Just Look at 'Retracement Quality'

#FibonacciTrading #TrendTrading #TradingSkills #FinancialAnalysis

Most traders mistakenly treat Fibonacci retracements as a 'market prediction tool,' fixating on numbers like 61.8%, 50%, etc., while ignoring the core logic of trading—the quality of retracements in a trend is the key to trend continuation.

The practical logic of skilled traders is actually quite simple:
First, identify a clear trend, anchor clear highs and lows to draw the retracement range, and the core observation is whether the retracement forms effective support in key areas (such as 61.8%). It is important to clarify that 61.8% itself has no 'magic power'; it is merely a depth threshold for retracements that frequently occurs in strong trends. The real trading signals come from the market performance after the price reaches that area:

Can it quickly stabilize the decline and avoid breaking down further?

Can it regain key structural levels and recover the lost ground of the retracement?

Has the downward momentum significantly slowed, and is buying interest starting to actively enter?

When these three types of signals appear simultaneously, it indicates that market selling pressure has been fully released, and the willingness of bulls to take over is strong, which will greatly increase the probability of trend continuation.

Thus, the essence of Fibonacci trading is not about 'whether the retracement precisely touches 61.8%' but rather 'after the price reaches the key area, does a clean stabilization structure appear?' Grasping this core is what allows Fibonacci to become a powerful tool for trend trading, rather than a shackle of numerical worship.

Gold prices are experiencing intense fluctuations at high levels! The range of 4170-4250 is a battleground, with high selling and low buying being the optimal strategy.

On Wednesday, the gold market staged a thrilling rise and fall, with prices swinging violently in the range of 4194-4241 USD throughout the day. The battle between bulls and bears has entered a heated stage, with insufficient trend continuity, and the market has officially fallen into a pattern of high-level fluctuations and consolidations.

From a technical perspective, the daily gold price remains firmly above the 5-day moving average, and the 4200 USD level has formed a consensus short-term psychological support in the market. Meanwhile, the area between 4245-4250 USD has erected an unbreakable barrier of resistance. Despite multiple attempts to surge to higher levels, the gold price has consistently failed to break through the previous resistance range, and short-term oscillation momentum continues to strengthen. It is worth noting that the non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures have seen a slight reduction, clearly indicating that in the current high-level area, market funds are becoming increasingly cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

Since the gold price corrected from its high of 4264 USD, the market has not made a clear directional choice. Based on a comprehensive assessment of multiple factors, gold is likely to maintain a pattern of "not falling deeply, not rising sharply" in the short term. For short-term traders, it is essential to focus on the core volatility range of 4170-4250 USD—until this range is effectively broken, the trend continuity of both bulls and bears will be greatly restricted. The team clearly suggests that short-term operations should mainly focus on high selling and low buying within the range, avoiding blind chasing of highs and lows; accurately grasping the turning points of the range is key to locking in stable profits!

In terms of short-term operations, the precise layout logic remains locked: it is recommended to decisively initiate the first long position when the gold price retraces to around 4192 USD; if the price further dips to near 4170 USD, one can add positions to the normal level, completing a step-by-step building of positions. Attention should be paid to the breakout movement of yesterday's high point around 4240 USD, as this position serves as a crucial resistance point, and its effective breakthrough will open up further upward space for bulls, which is a core signal for the continuity of short-term trends! #黄金

US Dollar Index and Commodity Trading Strategies (Intraday Edition)

1. US Dollar Index

Daily Pattern: Yesterday rebounded after hitting a low, forming a doji; short-term long-short competition intensifies.

Intraday Focus: Core range 99.0-99.5; follow the trend after breaking through the range.

2. Gold (XAU/USD)

1. Market Review

Yesterday saw fluctuations, with a sharp drop near 4200 stabilizing in the morning; the US market peaked at 4264, encountered resistance and fell back, closing as a doji; the triangle breakout target was not reached, with 4264 forming strong resistance; a short-term pullback may occur before continuing the increase.

2. Key Price Levels (Top to Bottom)

Strong Resistance: 4308 (weekly key level), 4264 (yesterday's high), 4245, 4236 (intraday long-short dividing line)

Support Range: 4219 (intraday near support), 4200 (yesterday's low), 4193-4174 (strong support zone for top-bottom conversion)

3. Trading Strategy

Range Trading: Before breaking the range of 4219-4239 in the morning, adopt a high short low long strategy.

Follow Up on Breakout: If stabilizing above 4236, look bullish with a target of 4245-4264; if breaking below 4219, look down to 4205, and gradually position long orders in the range of 4193-4174.

Review of Yesterday's Strategy: Long at 4211, short at 4240, long at 4247, long at 4220 (all in line with the intraday fluctuation rhythm).

3. Crude Oil (WTI)

Daily Pattern: Yesterday closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle, indicating upward pressure.

Intraday Strategy: Look to position long near the 59.0 line and lightly short near the 60.6 line.

Risk Warning: Strictly control position sizes; real-time trading should consider changes in volume.
Note: The above analysis is based on technical patterns and key price levels; the market is uncertain. Please manage stop-losses and base real trading decisions accordingly.