BTC含笑
散户. 偶尔分享一些自己的思考.
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20251206
Officially starting closed-door training,
for a duration of one year.
Officially starting closed-door training,
for a duration of one year.
See original
As shown in the figure:
1. Do not pursue long positions on the 4h chart
2. If it drops below the previous low of 8.38 on the 4h chart, it will turn into a weekly downward continuation
3. Upper short position area: 9.65-9.72
1. Do not pursue long positions on the 4h chart
2. If it drops below the previous low of 8.38 on the 4h chart, it will turn into a weekly downward continuation
3. Upper short position area: 9.65-9.72
In this wave, my understanding of BTC:
Last night BTC quickly recovered after breaking 9.18,
4h may reach a peak, do not chase long.
Situation 1: Directly breaking down from the current position,
Current price 9.2 light short,
Stop loss previous high 9.41.
Situation 2: Continuing to rebound
Open full short above the channel 9.65-9.72,
Stop loss 5% of principal.
-----
-----
Looking down at the 4h wave secondary low point at 8.37.
Situation 1: Pullback near 8.37, continue to move up in 4h rebound.
Situation 2: Directly breaking 8.37, completing the weekly downward continuation.
Last night BTC quickly recovered after breaking 9.18,
4h may reach a peak, do not chase long.
Situation 1: Directly breaking down from the current position,
Current price 9.2 light short,
Stop loss previous high 9.41.
Situation 2: Continuing to rebound
Open full short above the channel 9.65-9.72,
Stop loss 5% of principal.
-----
-----
Looking down at the 4h wave secondary low point at 8.37.
Situation 1: Pullback near 8.37, continue to move up in 4h rebound.
Situation 2: Directly breaking 8.37, completing the weekly downward continuation.
See original
In this wave, my understanding of BTC:
Last night BTC quickly recovered after breaking 9.18,
4h may reach a peak, do not chase long.
Situation 1: Directly breaking down from the current position,
Current price 9.2 light short,
Stop loss previous high 9.41.
Situation 2: Continuing to rebound
Open full short above the channel 9.65-9.72,
Stop loss 5% of principal.
-----
-----
Looking down at the 4h wave secondary low point at 8.37.
Situation 1: Pullback near 8.37, continue to move up in 4h rebound.
Situation 2: Directly breaking 8.37, completing the weekly downward continuation.
Last night BTC quickly recovered after breaking 9.18,
4h may reach a peak, do not chase long.
Situation 1: Directly breaking down from the current position,
Current price 9.2 light short,
Stop loss previous high 9.41.
Situation 2: Continuing to rebound
Open full short above the channel 9.65-9.72,
Stop loss 5% of principal.
-----
-----
Looking down at the 4h wave secondary low point at 8.37.
Situation 1: Pullback near 8.37, continue to move up in 4h rebound.
Situation 2: Directly breaking 8.37, completing the weekly downward continuation.
See original
Supply and Demand: Whale Holdings, ETF, Data
Data: PCE/PCI, Non-farm, ADP, Unemployment Claims
Data: Long and Short, Fees
K-Line Patterns
Sideways Price Range
Trend Line Price Channel
MAEMA RSI KDJ MACD BOLL
Fibonacci
Support and Resistance
Volume and Price
Price Behavior
Waves
CCI MFI OBV
POC COD Volume Analysis
Gann
Greed and Fear
20251202.tue
There is no shortcut in trading
Experience can only come from personal practice
Repetitive Training
Make trading a muscle memory
Keep it up, keep it up, keep it up, keep it up!
Work hard, work hard, work hard, work hard!
Data: PCE/PCI, Non-farm, ADP, Unemployment Claims
Data: Long and Short, Fees
K-Line Patterns
Sideways Price Range
Trend Line Price Channel
MAEMA RSI KDJ MACD BOLL
Fibonacci
Support and Resistance
Volume and Price
Price Behavior
Waves
CCI MFI OBV
POC COD Volume Analysis
Gann
Greed and Fear
20251202.tue
There is no shortcut in trading
Experience can only come from personal practice
Repetitive Training
Make trading a muscle memory
Keep it up, keep it up, keep it up, keep it up!
Work hard, work hard, work hard, work hard!
See original
Learning 👍
Train the form, indicators, price, and volume to develop muscle memory.
Specifications are strict, and the skills are perfected.
Train the form, indicators, price, and volume to develop muscle memory.
Specifications are strict, and the skills are perfected.
To achieve good results in trading, it is unimaginable without a lot of review and practice; it is basically impossible.
Back in the day when taking the college entrance exam, there wasn't a single person from our class who got into Qinghua or Beida that didn't have all types of questions and problems memorized. During the process, there was hardly any time for thought; after finishing the questions in one go, plus the time to check for mistakes, we basically submitted the exam on time, barely scraping by without any extra time to think about how to solve the problems.
The market is like the college entrance exam, presenting various types of questions every day, requiring traders to be able to answer correctly, and its difficulty is comparable to or even surpasses that of the college entrance exam.
The college entrance exam bets on one's future destiny, while trading bets on one's poverty or wealth in life. The college entrance exam indirectly determines one's future, while trading directly anchors one’s poverty or wealth, pain or happiness. If you don’t want to be a leek harvested, it is completely impossible to do well without correctly answering the questions presented by the market.
Let’s encourage each other.
Back in the day when taking the college entrance exam, there wasn't a single person from our class who got into Qinghua or Beida that didn't have all types of questions and problems memorized. During the process, there was hardly any time for thought; after finishing the questions in one go, plus the time to check for mistakes, we basically submitted the exam on time, barely scraping by without any extra time to think about how to solve the problems.
The market is like the college entrance exam, presenting various types of questions every day, requiring traders to be able to answer correctly, and its difficulty is comparable to or even surpasses that of the college entrance exam.
The college entrance exam bets on one's future destiny, while trading bets on one's poverty or wealth in life. The college entrance exam indirectly determines one's future, while trading directly anchors one’s poverty or wealth, pain or happiness. If you don’t want to be a leek harvested, it is completely impossible to do well without correctly answering the questions presented by the market.
Let’s encourage each other.
See original
K-line patterns, technical indicators, volume-price analysis,
price behavior, trading psychology.
Next, train repeatedly to form a qualified trading strategy
11302025 努力
price behavior, trading psychology.
Next, train repeatedly to form a qualified trading strategy
11302025 努力
See original
Next week's main theme: rebound to go long
1. On Friday, the Federal Reserve's dovish remarks,
increased expectations for interest rate cuts
2. ETFs have started to see inflows again,
continue to observe on Monday and Tuesday,
if there is sustained net inflow,
it can be taken as a strong rebound signal
Price range:
1. 930 - 888
2. 104 - 990
Questions:
1. If the Fed cuts interest rates in December, will BTC reach new highs?
2. There is speculation that 8.05 is the monthly bear bottom, will it break to 7.4 next week?
Answer:
Apart from so-called analysts,
no traders know.
Follow the market,
the market is always right.
1. On Friday, the Federal Reserve's dovish remarks,
increased expectations for interest rate cuts
2. ETFs have started to see inflows again,
continue to observe on Monday and Tuesday,
if there is sustained net inflow,
it can be taken as a strong rebound signal
Price range:
1. 930 - 888
2. 104 - 990
Questions:
1. If the Fed cuts interest rates in December, will BTC reach new highs?
2. There is speculation that 8.05 is the monthly bear bottom, will it break to 7.4 next week?
Answer:
Apart from so-called analysts,
no traders know.
Follow the market,
the market is always right.
See original
Crossing Bulls and Bears:
1. Only trade BTC
2. Continue to refine technical points, only enter trades in effective structural market conditions
3. Continuously track economic data and market liquidity
4. Be wary of -75% volatility black swan
Prepare for 2028, keep it up
1. Only trade BTC
2. Continue to refine technical points, only enter trades in effective structural market conditions
3. Continuously track economic data and market liquidity
4. Be wary of -75% volatility black swan
Prepare for 2028, keep it up
See original
Entering long-term oscillation correction + Bear market:
U.S. stocks are correcting due to concerns over the AI bubble + Liquidity tightening + Uncertainty over interest rate cuts in December.
1. ETF continues to outflow
2. U.S. companies' reserve boom pauses
3. Retail investors continue to sell
This is my first experience of a bear market,
5.6W is the on-chain investor cost price,
continuing to observe...
U.S. stocks are correcting due to concerns over the AI bubble + Liquidity tightening + Uncertainty over interest rate cuts in December.
1. ETF continues to outflow
2. U.S. companies' reserve boom pauses
3. Retail investors continue to sell
This is my first experience of a bear market,
5.6W is the on-chain investor cost price,
continuing to observe...
See original
BTC volatility is sufficient,
starting today,
stop all mainstream coin spot and contracts,
1) 20251107 only do BTC contracts.
2) In 2026, start accumulating BTC spot every month. Prepare for the 2028 bull market.
starting today,
stop all mainstream coin spot and contracts,
1) 20251107 only do BTC contracts.
2) In 2026, start accumulating BTC spot every month. Prepare for the 2028 bull market.
See original
Throughout the entire month of November,
there will be a cloud of negative emotions,
patiently waiting for the quantitative easing that may begin in December,
and the interest rate meeting in December.
During this time,
it will definitely be of hellish difficulty,
don't be rigid,
just take the profits.
there will be a cloud of negative emotions,
patiently waiting for the quantitative easing that may begin in December,
and the interest rate meeting in December.
During this time,
it will definitely be of hellish difficulty,
don't be rigid,
just take the profits.
See original
BTC continues to decline.
As shown in the figure,
Thursday's ETF net inflow,
but after a rebound to 1023 in the morning,
it has now fallen below the psychological level of 10.
Currently facing a deep correction,
reasons:
1) Market liquidity is tightening
2) Uncertainty about interest rate cuts in December
3) Risks of collapses in DeFi and CeFi!!!!
4) The Nasdaq has a possibility of deep correction
5) Panic sentiment has already broken through the 100,000 level continuously
6) Slowing increase in U.S. company holdings, ETF net inflow is also slowing, unable to absorb sell orders
I thought last week,
shorting after the interest rate cut,
waiting for the negative sentiment to pass for a week before going long,
currently,
the market has not fully digested the negative sentiment,
pre-market on Friday, still in a bearish trend.
The market is always right,
in this high-risk environment,
reduce positions,
slow down the trading pace,
patiently wait for bottoming signals.
Focus on:
a. 9.45
b. 8.87 active investor cost price
c. 8.4
d. 7.8
f. 7.19
e. 5.60 on-chain investor actual cost price
As shown in the figure,
Thursday's ETF net inflow,
but after a rebound to 1023 in the morning,
it has now fallen below the psychological level of 10.
Currently facing a deep correction,
reasons:
1) Market liquidity is tightening
2) Uncertainty about interest rate cuts in December
3) Risks of collapses in DeFi and CeFi!!!!
4) The Nasdaq has a possibility of deep correction
5) Panic sentiment has already broken through the 100,000 level continuously
6) Slowing increase in U.S. company holdings, ETF net inflow is also slowing, unable to absorb sell orders
I thought last week,
shorting after the interest rate cut,
waiting for the negative sentiment to pass for a week before going long,
currently,
the market has not fully digested the negative sentiment,
pre-market on Friday, still in a bearish trend.
The market is always right,
in this high-risk environment,
reduce positions,
slow down the trading pace,
patiently wait for bottoming signals.
Focus on:
a. 9.45
b. 8.87 active investor cost price
c. 8.4
d. 7.8
f. 7.19
e. 5.60 on-chain investor actual cost price
See original
BTC price continues to decline,
Attention:
1) 10.50 - 10.45 Intensive liquidation
2) The previous low of the oscillation range 10.34
3) Spike low point 10.13
4) 100,000 integer level, extremely fearful sentiment
5) 9.8 extreme low point
As shown in the figure:
Due to the unknown interest rate cut in December,
USD/Treasury bonds, strong rebound,
BTC price continues to decline.
If U.S. stocks have a significant correction,
BTC will definitely break below the 100,000 level.
At the same time, this week's news,
must pay close attention to Trump's speeches,
if a war occurs,
BTC will certainly drop significantly by around 5000 ~ 10000.
Attention:
1) 10.50 - 10.45 Intensive liquidation
2) The previous low of the oscillation range 10.34
3) Spike low point 10.13
4) 100,000 integer level, extremely fearful sentiment
5) 9.8 extreme low point
As shown in the figure:
Due to the unknown interest rate cut in December,
USD/Treasury bonds, strong rebound,
BTC price continues to decline.
If U.S. stocks have a significant correction,
BTC will definitely break below the 100,000 level.
At the same time, this week's news,
must pay close attention to Trump's speeches,
if a war occurs,
BTC will certainly drop significantly by around 5000 ~ 10000.
See original
Even institutional analysts,
when faced with the deep correction of BTC,
are uncertain.
1) From a liquidation perspective: 1050 - 1045
2) There are also opinions suggesting a drop to 10
3) There are extreme views, with a limit bottom of 9.8
My own thoughts:
1. Powell's bearish remarks, the market is still digesting
2. In a fragile market, ETF inflows are also decreasing,
a slight negative news impact
could lead to a significant drop
3. This week is mainly about shorting
4. Last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, I estimate there will be another 3 or 4 days,
the market will be able to digest the bearish sentiment
5. There is no need to bet on a rebound to go long,
wait for Wednesday and Thursday for the market to move for a while before considering
Additionally,
ETH broke below 3600,
SOL surprisingly broke below 165,
BNB 980.
When the storm comes,
only then do we realize that BTC is the most resilient.
when faced with the deep correction of BTC,
are uncertain.
1) From a liquidation perspective: 1050 - 1045
2) There are also opinions suggesting a drop to 10
3) There are extreme views, with a limit bottom of 9.8
My own thoughts:
1. Powell's bearish remarks, the market is still digesting
2. In a fragile market, ETF inflows are also decreasing,
a slight negative news impact
could lead to a significant drop
3. This week is mainly about shorting
4. Last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, I estimate there will be another 3 or 4 days,
the market will be able to digest the bearish sentiment
5. There is no need to bet on a rebound to go long,
wait for Wednesday and Thursday for the market to move for a while before considering
Additionally,
ETH broke below 3600,
SOL surprisingly broke below 165,
BNB 980.
When the storm comes,
only then do we realize that BTC is the most resilient.
See original
BTC Trend Thoughts
Today's Positive News:
The China-U.S. trade conflict has temporarily ended.
Current Market,
Because of
1) Powell's uncertainty about interest rate cuts in December
2) Continuously below 11.30 short-term holder cost line
3) U.S. stocks are consolidating at high levels, Buffett's company financial report is negative for U.S. stocks
Next week:
1. Sudden news may include: Strikes against Venezuela, escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war
2. Wait until the week after next to go long, focus on shorting during the rebound next week to let the market digest negative sentiment.
Today's Positive News:
The China-U.S. trade conflict has temporarily ended.
Current Market,
Because of
1) Powell's uncertainty about interest rate cuts in December
2) Continuously below 11.30 short-term holder cost line
3) U.S. stocks are consolidating at high levels, Buffett's company financial report is negative for U.S. stocks
Next week:
1. Sudden news may include: Strikes against Venezuela, escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war
2. Wait until the week after next to go long, focus on shorting during the rebound next week to let the market digest negative sentiment.
See original
Future Trends of BTC
1. Continuous decline in the next week, bottom at 9.8
Reason:
The market needs to digest Powell's remarks on "uncertainty of interest rate cuts in December"
9.8 price is the lowest point since May
2. On 11.08, next Saturday, start building long positions
October price review
Price drop after interest rate cut (Friday -> next Friday)
a. 9-18 interest rate cut, Friday, peak at 11.80
b. 9-26 Friday, low at 10.86 (-7.8%, 9200)
Fluctuation (weekend), main upward wave (Sunday 21:00 market surge)
c. 9.26 ~ 9.28 convergence of fluctuations
d. 10-07. Tuesday 12.62 (+15.5%, 17000)
After a big rise comes a big drop, 10.11 Black Swan
c. 10.11 Black Swan on Friday, single day 12.25 -> 10.13
(-17.2%, 21000)
After a big drop, this month fluctuates between 10.34 ~ 11.60
d. 10.14 Tuesday double top 11.60
e. 10.17 Friday bottom 10.34
f. 10.21 ~ 10.22 due to the false peace between Russia and Ukraine,
10.78 ~ 11.40 / drawing door,
g. 10.23 double bottom 10.66 starts to open expectations for interest rate cut rebound
h. 10.27. Monday peak 11.63
10.28. Tuesday second peak 11.60
i. On 10.29, Powell said "uncertainty about interest rate hikes in December",
bearish for the market,
dropped to 10.31 04:00 10.62
1. Continuous decline in the next week, bottom at 9.8
Reason:
The market needs to digest Powell's remarks on "uncertainty of interest rate cuts in December"
9.8 price is the lowest point since May
2. On 11.08, next Saturday, start building long positions
October price review
Price drop after interest rate cut (Friday -> next Friday)
a. 9-18 interest rate cut, Friday, peak at 11.80
b. 9-26 Friday, low at 10.86 (-7.8%, 9200)
Fluctuation (weekend), main upward wave (Sunday 21:00 market surge)
c. 9.26 ~ 9.28 convergence of fluctuations
d. 10-07. Tuesday 12.62 (+15.5%, 17000)
After a big rise comes a big drop, 10.11 Black Swan
c. 10.11 Black Swan on Friday, single day 12.25 -> 10.13
(-17.2%, 21000)
After a big drop, this month fluctuates between 10.34 ~ 11.60
d. 10.14 Tuesday double top 11.60
e. 10.17 Friday bottom 10.34
f. 10.21 ~ 10.22 due to the false peace between Russia and Ukraine,
10.78 ~ 11.40 / drawing door,
g. 10.23 double bottom 10.66 starts to open expectations for interest rate cut rebound
h. 10.27. Monday peak 11.63
10.28. Tuesday second peak 11.60
i. On 10.29, Powell said "uncertainty about interest rate hikes in December",
bearish for the market,
dropped to 10.31 04:00 10.62
Some thoughts for next week:
1. Tomorrow there will be positive news on the China-US trade negotiations,
Tonight there will be pre-priced positive news,
Tomorrow during the day we will continue to observe the trends,
Then decide whether to increase long positions or close them.
2. If there is a Trump-Xi meeting next week, it will be significant positive news,
3. The Russia-Ukraine situation will keep fluctuating.
Follow Trump's speeches for trading, don't overthink it.
4. Interest rates will be cut at 2 AM on Thursday, with a 25bp cut basically set,
After the rate cut, it will be a negative signal for shorting,
Before that, just go long.
5. Pay attention to Powell's speech after the monetary policy meeting,
Observe the focus of old Powell's speech,
I predict it will still be dovish and positive,
This will have an impact on the market in late November.
1. Tomorrow there will be positive news on the China-US trade negotiations,
Tonight there will be pre-priced positive news,
Tomorrow during the day we will continue to observe the trends,
Then decide whether to increase long positions or close them.
2. If there is a Trump-Xi meeting next week, it will be significant positive news,
3. The Russia-Ukraine situation will keep fluctuating.
Follow Trump's speeches for trading, don't overthink it.
4. Interest rates will be cut at 2 AM on Thursday, with a 25bp cut basically set,
After the rate cut, it will be a negative signal for shorting,
Before that, just go long.
5. Pay attention to Powell's speech after the monetary policy meeting,
Observe the focus of old Powell's speech,
I predict it will still be dovish and positive,
This will have an impact on the market in late November.
See original
BTC will continue to reach new highs
1. Adjust to the August high of 144,000
2. Currently, there is no risk of a pullback in the Nasdaq
1. Adjust to the August high of 144,000
2. Currently, there is no risk of a pullback in the Nasdaq
See original
SOL breaks new high in September 254
As shown in the figure:
As shown in the figure:
See original
As shown,
ETF inflow, public opinion guidance,
I caught a faint scent of the little bull😘
Yesterday I was thinking about shorting immediately after the interest rate cut,
But now it seems,
There’s no rush to short
Let the little bull run for a while
ETF inflow, public opinion guidance,
I caught a faint scent of the little bull😘
Yesterday I was thinking about shorting immediately after the interest rate cut,
But now it seems,
There’s no rush to short
Let the little bull run for a while
See original
Chinese area, start spreading this message
hold, wait for 9 o'clock to make a wave
hold, wait for 9 o'clock to make a wave
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