朱莉哥
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#WLFI will be launched tomorrow. There are all kinds of guesses, but what I want to say is that everyone still lacks imagination.
Now that I think about it carefully, #TRUMP feels more like a trial run, and many subsequent policies seem to be specially packaged dumplings for WLFI.
The purpose of WLFI is definitely not just to make a quick profit in the cryptocurrency space. It's obvious that the goal is to draw the blood of traditional finance into the cryptocurrency world, aligning with their slogan of realizing financial freedom for people worldwide.
So next, it will definitely be the autumn of WLFI, and the WLFI ecosystem on the chain is the USD1 track.
Now that I think about it carefully, #TRUMP feels more like a trial run, and many subsequent policies seem to be specially packaged dumplings for WLFI.
The purpose of WLFI is definitely not just to make a quick profit in the cryptocurrency space. It's obvious that the goal is to draw the blood of traditional finance into the cryptocurrency world, aligning with their slogan of realizing financial freedom for people worldwide.
So next, it will definitely be the autumn of WLFI, and the WLFI ecosystem on the chain is the USD1 track.
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The market whales are busy converting #ETH into #BTC , so the trend is one of rising, then stabilizing or declining. So what will the final result be?
I believe there will ultimately be a balance, and the BTC market makers hidden behind the scenes will definitely come out to absorb and take delivery. It is impossible for such a high-quality asset like BTC to lack major players managing it. When can this speculation be realized? We will see some clues when the net accumulation of BTC contracts gradually increases to 500 million to 1 billion.
I believe there will ultimately be a balance, and the BTC market makers hidden behind the scenes will definitely come out to absorb and take delivery. It is impossible for such a high-quality asset like BTC to lack major players managing it. When can this speculation be realized? We will see some clues when the net accumulation of BTC contracts gradually increases to 500 million to 1 billion.
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Regarding the exchange rate of #ETH , from a weekly perspective, it is clear that it is currently constrained by this long-term downward trend line, with a slight pullback this week and still not breaking through;
This aligns with the expectations in the citation, as the previous large whales gradually changed their positions, leading to an improvement in the exchange rate level, while the continuous buying of ETFs and coin stocks has driven up the U-based price.
But the current question is, how much of this core buying power for ETH remains among these three favorable factors?
My thought is that the exchange rate should still be under pressure in the short term, but the long-term downward trend line will eventually break through. Once it breaks, it signifies that the liquidity of BTC in the market has truly started to flow out.
What people are looking forward to as the altcoin season may not be a bull market in U-based terms, but rather a bull market in terms of the exchange rate. This means that even if there is a bear market, the downside space for altcoins and ETH is limited, and once the bull market resumes, their increase may be much faster than BTC's!
This aligns with the expectations in the citation, as the previous large whales gradually changed their positions, leading to an improvement in the exchange rate level, while the continuous buying of ETFs and coin stocks has driven up the U-based price.
But the current question is, how much of this core buying power for ETH remains among these three favorable factors?
My thought is that the exchange rate should still be under pressure in the short term, but the long-term downward trend line will eventually break through. Once it breaks, it signifies that the liquidity of BTC in the market has truly started to flow out.
What people are looking forward to as the altcoin season may not be a bull market in U-based terms, but rather a bull market in terms of the exchange rate. This means that even if there is a bear market, the downside space for altcoins and ETH is limited, and once the bull market resumes, their increase may be much faster than BTC's!
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If nothing unexpected happens, next Monday morning, the weekly line for #BTC will confirm a death cross...
At the same time, it will also confirm a second top divergence...
Honestly, I am looking forward to a bullish trend over the weekend, but this is not realistic. According to past market data, the week when the weekly line confirms a death cross usually results in a small bullish candle.
Therefore, there may be some weak rebounds next week, but the overall structure remains pessimistic...
At the same time, it will also confirm a second top divergence...
Honestly, I am looking forward to a bullish trend over the weekend, but this is not realistic. According to past market data, the week when the weekly line confirms a death cross usually results in a small bullish candle.
Therefore, there may be some weak rebounds next week, but the overall structure remains pessimistic...
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The bn track, wlfi track, and solana meme (ai) each have their own problems and opportunities.
The bn track has very clear liquidity support, but unlike memes, it does not have a sufficient number of holders covering both Chinese and English;
The solana/base meme (ai) has a more active holder community, but currently does not receive maximal liquidity support;
The wlfi track has both Chinese and English communities and potentially has liquidity support, but it is too expensive.
If there are particularly large opportunities on-chain in the future, the ideal situation should be:
1. Liquidity subsequently receives significant support;
2. Able to encompass both Chinese and English communities, with more holders;
3. In the initial stage, there are sufficient opportunities to build positions below 10 million.
Only by meeting these three conditions can there be particularly large wealth creation opportunities and wealth effects. #美联储降息预期
The bn track has very clear liquidity support, but unlike memes, it does not have a sufficient number of holders covering both Chinese and English;
The solana/base meme (ai) has a more active holder community, but currently does not receive maximal liquidity support;
The wlfi track has both Chinese and English communities and potentially has liquidity support, but it is too expensive.
If there are particularly large opportunities on-chain in the future, the ideal situation should be:
1. Liquidity subsequently receives significant support;
2. Able to encompass both Chinese and English communities, with more holders;
3. In the initial stage, there are sufficient opportunities to build positions below 10 million.
Only by meeting these three conditions can there be particularly large wealth creation opportunities and wealth effects. #美联储降息预期
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#BTC Technical Analysis
1. The big pie started its rise from the manipulated level of 108666.66. Currently, from a small-scale perspective, it barely seems to have formed a guiding diagonal wave, but it is not very obvious;
2. The reason it is noted as not very obvious is that if this guiding diagonal has almost completed its formation, it still hasn't reached the resistance level I provided a few days ago;
3. However, if it follows the red line, then there is no necessity for participation, because it is difficult to determine how far this rebound can go after the first rise, the second pullback, and the third segment; the cost-effectiveness is not very high, so we should proceed with caution.
In recent days, E has slightly cooled down, the elder brother and second brother are not at home, and S has become the king. I would like to share a few questions I have been pondering:
1. Will the market immediately hype S after just speculating on #ETH ’s spiral takeoff?
2. How do the basic conditions for S's spiral takeoff compare to those of B and E?
3. In the current market state where the big pie is starting to weaken, and E has just experienced a surge before returning to calm, is it an appropriate entry time?
The answer is that I personally will not consider participating; missing out will only result in not making money, but FOMO will only lead to losses.
The current strategy remains to wait. The main funds in the market not only have patience but also manipulate people's minds. This round of Wall Street trading, whether it's the big pie or E, is evident; this level can be called a 'master of human management.' The price of BE is rising coolly, while retail investors' account balances are coolly declining;
For retail investors, the fairest thing might be that we have as much time as the main funds. Let's wait for a relatively fair opportunity.
1. The big pie started its rise from the manipulated level of 108666.66. Currently, from a small-scale perspective, it barely seems to have formed a guiding diagonal wave, but it is not very obvious;
2. The reason it is noted as not very obvious is that if this guiding diagonal has almost completed its formation, it still hasn't reached the resistance level I provided a few days ago;
3. However, if it follows the red line, then there is no necessity for participation, because it is difficult to determine how far this rebound can go after the first rise, the second pullback, and the third segment; the cost-effectiveness is not very high, so we should proceed with caution.
In recent days, E has slightly cooled down, the elder brother and second brother are not at home, and S has become the king. I would like to share a few questions I have been pondering:
1. Will the market immediately hype S after just speculating on #ETH ’s spiral takeoff?
2. How do the basic conditions for S's spiral takeoff compare to those of B and E?
3. In the current market state where the big pie is starting to weaken, and E has just experienced a surge before returning to calm, is it an appropriate entry time?
The answer is that I personally will not consider participating; missing out will only result in not making money, but FOMO will only lead to losses.
The current strategy remains to wait. The main funds in the market not only have patience but also manipulate people's minds. This round of Wall Street trading, whether it's the big pie or E, is evident; this level can be called a 'master of human management.' The price of BE is rising coolly, while retail investors' account balances are coolly declining;
For retail investors, the fairest thing might be that we have as much time as the main funds. Let's wait for a relatively fair opportunity.
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Playing contracts is like playing Dou Di Zhu with the dealer, except your hand is completely transparent to the dealer, with no concealment. As a result, the final outcome for retail investors is often a loss. However, there is one exception: if you use a very low leverage and the trading targets are major currencies like #BTC or #ETH , it becomes very difficult for the dealer to have a substantial impact on you.
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Somnia (#SOMI )
Total Supply 1 Billion
Circulating 160 Million
Funding: 270 Million USD
Current Price 1.15 Corresponds to Circulating Market Value 184 Million
A project with 270 Million in funding is definitely a top-tier project, and this market value is considered undervalued.
High probability of going up
Airdrop 5% Unlock 20%, which means the selling pressure is only 1%, considered very low for a new coin.
Whether it’s funding, selling pressure, or undervalued price, I think it’s more suitable than XPL.
Is there anyone who understands this project? Currently, the funding found on Twitter is 270 Million; is it real?
Parent Company: Improbable Total Funding 930 Million
Welcome to discuss.
Total Supply 1 Billion
Circulating 160 Million
Funding: 270 Million USD
Current Price 1.15 Corresponds to Circulating Market Value 184 Million
A project with 270 Million in funding is definitely a top-tier project, and this market value is considered undervalued.
High probability of going up
Airdrop 5% Unlock 20%, which means the selling pressure is only 1%, considered very low for a new coin.
Whether it’s funding, selling pressure, or undervalued price, I think it’s more suitable than XPL.
Is there anyone who understands this project? Currently, the funding found on Twitter is 270 Million; is it real?
Parent Company: Improbable Total Funding 930 Million
Welcome to discuss.
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#BTC Technical Analysis
1. The weekly MACD death cross is confirmed, temporarily inclined towards a fluctuating adjustment similar to 24-3 → 24-8;
2. Currently, the adjustment level has been confirmed to expand to the adjustment targeting the rise since 98200. If it breaks below the 108 position, it will confirm an expansion targeting the rise since 74508. In terms that retail investors like to hear, the position around 108 is very likely to be the support for this level;
3. The adjustment wave is inherently very complex and difficult to predict accurately. Relatively speaking, it’s good to know which market conditions are simple and which are challenging.
#ETH Technical Analysis
1. The difficulty lies in the current divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum's trends. Ethereum has shown a push pattern since the rise from 4060;
2. Therefore, there are several possibilities for this rise since 4060: 1. It is in the process of topping, referring to Ethereum's movement in May; 2. It is the first wave of a five-wave structure, and the complete five-wave rally that follows could be significant; 3. This is indeed the five waves continuing to form a top.
In the cryptocurrency market, apart from the previous linear plot where $SOL dominated a small portion for a while; the rest is only dominated by Bitcoin and Ethereum.
If Bitcoin declines, or Ethereum tops, and other altcoins perform well, for me, it would be a trap; hence there is no need for analysis, because these coins are not part of the profit-making plan.
With my insufficient skills, in such market conditions, I choose wealth management, and then watch the high-level teachers execute high sells and low buys, shedding envious tears.
1. The weekly MACD death cross is confirmed, temporarily inclined towards a fluctuating adjustment similar to 24-3 → 24-8;
2. Currently, the adjustment level has been confirmed to expand to the adjustment targeting the rise since 98200. If it breaks below the 108 position, it will confirm an expansion targeting the rise since 74508. In terms that retail investors like to hear, the position around 108 is very likely to be the support for this level;
3. The adjustment wave is inherently very complex and difficult to predict accurately. Relatively speaking, it’s good to know which market conditions are simple and which are challenging.
#ETH Technical Analysis
1. The difficulty lies in the current divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum's trends. Ethereum has shown a push pattern since the rise from 4060;
2. Therefore, there are several possibilities for this rise since 4060: 1. It is in the process of topping, referring to Ethereum's movement in May; 2. It is the first wave of a five-wave structure, and the complete five-wave rally that follows could be significant; 3. This is indeed the five waves continuing to form a top.
In the cryptocurrency market, apart from the previous linear plot where $SOL dominated a small portion for a while; the rest is only dominated by Bitcoin and Ethereum.
If Bitcoin declines, or Ethereum tops, and other altcoins perform well, for me, it would be a trap; hence there is no need for analysis, because these coins are not part of the profit-making plan.
With my insufficient skills, in such market conditions, I choose wealth management, and then watch the high-level teachers execute high sells and low buys, shedding envious tears.
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All partners of WLFI official website.
I just saw DOLO fly,
bought some #Lista ,
The concept of AAVE is retreating, and other projects will inevitably rise.
Besides #DOLO , I think LISTA is more suitable, so buy the dip.
In the next few days, WLFI concept coins should continue to run.
This is also the last dance of WLFI concept coins; after WLFI issues tokens, this concept will not be speculated on anymore.
I just saw DOLO fly,
bought some #Lista ,
The concept of AAVE is retreating, and other projects will inevitably rise.
Besides #DOLO , I think LISTA is more suitable, so buy the dip.
In the next few days, WLFI concept coins should continue to run.
This is also the last dance of WLFI concept coins; after WLFI issues tokens, this concept will not be speculated on anymore.
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I also feel that the altcoin season is coming,
1. The market share of BTC has been decreasing, which is a major trend in recent months.
2. Recently, altcoins like ETH, SOL, ADA, and DOGE have been performing strongly; large capital in the market has already bet on altcoins like ETH, SOL, and LTC.
3. Interest rate cuts are likely to begin in September, with 2-3 occurrences before December.
4. There have been two altcoin seasons in 2023, one in 2024, and theoretically, there should be at least one altcoin season in 2025, which is likely to be in Q4.
5. At this stage, if you are still betting on BTC for significant gains, it is likely to be very difficult. It might be better to bet on quality altcoins like ETH, SOL, and DOGE for potential growth.
#杰克逊霍尔会议
1. The market share of BTC has been decreasing, which is a major trend in recent months.
2. Recently, altcoins like ETH, SOL, ADA, and DOGE have been performing strongly; large capital in the market has already bet on altcoins like ETH, SOL, and LTC.
3. Interest rate cuts are likely to begin in September, with 2-3 occurrences before December.
4. There have been two altcoin seasons in 2023, one in 2024, and theoretically, there should be at least one altcoin season in 2025, which is likely to be in Q4.
5. At this stage, if you are still betting on BTC for significant gains, it is likely to be very difficult. It might be better to bet on quality altcoins like ETH, SOL, and DOGE for potential growth.
#杰克逊霍尔会议
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Current price of #ol is 0.036, enter at 0.033 for an additional position, stop loss at 0.03.
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#BTC has started a rebound targeting 124474.
The upper resistance levels are 116500→119500, and it is believed that this is just a rebound.
The difficulty of participating in the market is high, and there is no comfortable entry area, so continue with financial management.
The upper resistance levels are 116500→119500, and it is believed that this is just a rebound.
The difficulty of participating in the market is high, and there is no comfortable entry area, so continue with financial management.
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#OKB This wave really feels like I completely missed out, and even gives me a sense that this matter is very distant from me.
Looking back, the last time I dealt with OKB, I was still with my friends in the group, got in at 14 bucks at the low in 2022, sold it for over 40, and then didn’t pay any more attention.
Well, so to be precise, it can’t be called missing out; it should be said that this money was never really related to me;
It’s just like how I’m always focused on secondary trading of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, occasionally seeing which on-chain general gets a big result, and then I happen to glance at that asset and didn’t buy it. I can’t forcibly say that if I had bought a few tens of thousands of USDT back then, what would have happened, that I missed out, what a pity! Because it’s impossible for me to buy.
Even if time were to rewind, I might still not pay much attention to OKB, I might still never buy, and I wouldn’t be sensitive enough to rush to get in...
Looking back, the last time I dealt with OKB, I was still with my friends in the group, got in at 14 bucks at the low in 2022, sold it for over 40, and then didn’t pay any more attention.
Well, so to be precise, it can’t be called missing out; it should be said that this money was never really related to me;
It’s just like how I’m always focused on secondary trading of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, occasionally seeing which on-chain general gets a big result, and then I happen to glance at that asset and didn’t buy it. I can’t forcibly say that if I had bought a few tens of thousands of USDT back then, what would have happened, that I missed out, what a pity! Because it’s impossible for me to buy.
Even if time were to rewind, I might still not pay much attention to OKB, I might still never buy, and I wouldn’t be sensitive enough to rush to get in...
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1. #BTC Technical Analysis
The rise starting from 111920 is the final segment of the overall rise that began from 74508;
The current decline is nearing the point of erasing this last bit of the rise, and the level may have expanded to a correction against the rise from 74508 to 124474;
The rise from 74508 to 124474 may be the fifth segment of the overall rise that started from 15476;
Let's first assume several key support levels and observe the price performance upon reaching them, from near to far: 112000 (the starting point of the last segment), 108706 (today's price, daily MA120), 92503 (today's price, 3-day MA120), 74508 (the starting point of the ending diagonal).
Indicators:
The daily indicators of Bitcoin are neutral, while indicators below the daily level are bearish, and above the daily level are in the process of correction from a high position (overbought);
It is particularly important to note that if the daily bullish momentum continues to be weak, the weekly MACD will cross bearish. This is a large-scale indicator with relatively high certainty; if the weekly bearish cross is confirmed, it will either be a long-term correction (2024-03 to 2024-08) or a violent drop (2025-01 to 2025-04).
2. #ETH Technical Analysis
The E coin is representative in the overall market trend that started on April 8, whether in terms of the magnitude of the increase or in driving market sentiment, the E coin has replaced the position of Bitcoin in this round.
The rise starting from 3354 can be seen as wave 3 of 5 or wave 5 of the rise that began from 1300 (uncertain);
Currently, the daily indicators are in a correction process, and the MACD has not returned to the zero axis;
The large-scale indicators lag behind Bitcoin, and it is believed that it is still good to follow the main market; if the main market is doing well, it will outperform the main market, but if Bitcoin underperforms, it cannot hold up alone.
The rise starting from 111920 is the final segment of the overall rise that began from 74508;
The current decline is nearing the point of erasing this last bit of the rise, and the level may have expanded to a correction against the rise from 74508 to 124474;
The rise from 74508 to 124474 may be the fifth segment of the overall rise that started from 15476;
Let's first assume several key support levels and observe the price performance upon reaching them, from near to far: 112000 (the starting point of the last segment), 108706 (today's price, daily MA120), 92503 (today's price, 3-day MA120), 74508 (the starting point of the ending diagonal).
Indicators:
The daily indicators of Bitcoin are neutral, while indicators below the daily level are bearish, and above the daily level are in the process of correction from a high position (overbought);
It is particularly important to note that if the daily bullish momentum continues to be weak, the weekly MACD will cross bearish. This is a large-scale indicator with relatively high certainty; if the weekly bearish cross is confirmed, it will either be a long-term correction (2024-03 to 2024-08) or a violent drop (2025-01 to 2025-04).
2. #ETH Technical Analysis
The E coin is representative in the overall market trend that started on April 8, whether in terms of the magnitude of the increase or in driving market sentiment, the E coin has replaced the position of Bitcoin in this round.
The rise starting from 3354 can be seen as wave 3 of 5 or wave 5 of the rise that began from 1300 (uncertain);
Currently, the daily indicators are in a correction process, and the MACD has not returned to the zero axis;
The large-scale indicators lag behind Bitcoin, and it is believed that it is still good to follow the main market; if the main market is doing well, it will outperform the main market, but if Bitcoin underperforms, it cannot hold up alone.
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Trading is about taking one step at a time, so don't laugh at the teachers who say, "It might go up, it might go down, and there's also the possibility of it moving sideways."
Forecast and plan for August 16,
Opportunity appeared on August 18 to prepare for acquisition,
On August 19, the situation was not as expected, so we went with PLAN B,
What is a trader?
A trader has a trend in mind and shapes in sight.
#加密市场回调
Forecast and plan for August 16,
Opportunity appeared on August 18 to prepare for acquisition,
On August 19, the situation was not as expected, so we went with PLAN B,
What is a trader?
A trader has a trend in mind and shapes in sight.
#加密市场回调
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