加密货币专家小马哥
币圈无常，唯稳不破，用理性对抗波动，用耐心等待机会。
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Setting aside the fundamentals and looking solely at the charts, there is indeed an impulse to "wait for it to drop before taking action." After all, entering at a high position carries a heavy psychological burden; if there is a pullback, it can easily lead to a collapse in mindset. Currently, the technical aspect is overall bearish, and short-term rebound pressure is evident. In terms of operations, it might be wise to lightly short during a rebound and consider buying in low after a sharp drop.
12.9 Short-term strategy reference
Bitcoin:
1. Short in the 91000-90200 area during a rebound, with a stop loss above 92000, targeting 89000-88000; if it breaks down, pay attention to around 86500.
2. If it stabilizes in the 86500-87500 area, consider lightly going long, with a stop loss below 85500, targeting 88000-89000.
Ethereum:
1. Short in the 3160-3120 area during a rebound, with a stop loss above 3200, targeting 3010-2970.
2. Long in the 2960-3000 area during a pullback, with a stop loss below 2910, targeting 3070-3110.
#ETH走势分析
12.9 Short-term strategy reference
Bitcoin:
1. Short in the 91000-90200 area during a rebound, with a stop loss above 92000, targeting 89000-88000; if it breaks down, pay attention to around 86500.
2. If it stabilizes in the 86500-87500 area, consider lightly going long, with a stop loss below 85500, targeting 88000-89000.
Ethereum:
1. Short in the 3160-3120 area during a rebound, with a stop loss above 3200, targeting 3010-2970.
2. Long in the 2960-3000 area during a pullback, with a stop loss below 2910, targeting 3070-3110.
#ETH走势分析
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🎄 Christmas Eve, how will the Fed's 'gift' be unwrapped?
Bitcoin holds steady at 92000, the market holds its breath—will the year-end market be a pleasant surprise or a cold lump of coal, all hinges on this week's Fed meeting.
🎯 Key Night: More than Just Rate Cuts
The market has already priced in rate cuts. The real drama lies in:
· Powell's 'Farewell Speech': a potential 'hawkish rate cut', emphasizing caution while cutting rates.
· Power Under Currents: 'Shadow Chairman' Hassett and other officials' dovish signals may define next year's direction.
· Underestimated Variable: Restarting the bond-buying program may quietly open a new round of liquidity taps.
⚡️ What Does It Mean for the Market?
Two clear paths:
1. Hawkish Reality: If the focus is on Powell's caution, the dollar strengthens, and risk assets come under pressure.
2. Dovish Future: If trading on the easing expectations represented by Hassett, risk appetite is likely to reignite.
💎 Investor Insights
At this moment, the true players are not waiting for answers but preparing contingency plans:
· Observe the formal confirmation of liquidity trends.
· Examine the market structure's real response to the news.
· Adjust positions based on the pace of policy.
Sideways movement is the calm before the storm. The meeting results will be the sole key to unlocking the upcoming market.
Market expectations are set, but wisdom lies in seeing ahead of expectations.
#美联储重启降息步伐
Bitcoin holds steady at 92000, the market holds its breath—will the year-end market be a pleasant surprise or a cold lump of coal, all hinges on this week's Fed meeting.
🎯 Key Night: More than Just Rate Cuts
The market has already priced in rate cuts. The real drama lies in:
· Powell's 'Farewell Speech': a potential 'hawkish rate cut', emphasizing caution while cutting rates.
· Power Under Currents: 'Shadow Chairman' Hassett and other officials' dovish signals may define next year's direction.
· Underestimated Variable: Restarting the bond-buying program may quietly open a new round of liquidity taps.
⚡️ What Does It Mean for the Market?
Two clear paths:
1. Hawkish Reality: If the focus is on Powell's caution, the dollar strengthens, and risk assets come under pressure.
2. Dovish Future: If trading on the easing expectations represented by Hassett, risk appetite is likely to reignite.
💎 Investor Insights
At this moment, the true players are not waiting for answers but preparing contingency plans:
· Observe the formal confirmation of liquidity trends.
· Examine the market structure's real response to the news.
· Adjust positions based on the pace of policy.
Sideways movement is the calm before the storm. The meeting results will be the sole key to unlocking the upcoming market.
Market expectations are set, but wisdom lies in seeing ahead of expectations.
#美联储重启降息步伐
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Powell's 'Final Round': An ultimate showdown of a 'hawkish rate cut' and power struggle
🎯 Ultimate market bet: Powell's 'hawkish rate cut' vs. Hassett's 'future script'
At 3 AM Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve's 2025 year-end meeting will determine whether the market receives a 'Christmas gift' or a 'departure compromise'. A 25 basis point cut is already a strong consensus (with a probability exceeding 80%), but the real drama lies in the details.
🔮 Key highlight: A 'hawkish rate cut'
The market focus is not on 'whether to cut interest rates', but on 'how to cut interest rates'. As the outgoing chairman, Powell is very likely to implement a 'hawkish rate cut'—that is, while cutting rates, he will strongly emphasize that inflation is not gone and that the future depends on data, dousing expectations for easing next year. The real variables are the dot plot and the number of dissenting votes, which will expose fractures within the Federal Reserve.
At 3 AM Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve's 2025 year-end meeting will determine whether the market receives a 'Christmas gift' or a 'departure compromise'. A 25 basis point cut is already a strong consensus (with a probability exceeding 80%), but the real drama lies in the details.
🔮 Key highlight: A 'hawkish rate cut'
The market focus is not on 'whether to cut interest rates', but on 'how to cut interest rates'. As the outgoing chairman, Powell is very likely to implement a 'hawkish rate cut'—that is, while cutting rates, he will strongly emphasize that inflation is not gone and that the future depends on data, dousing expectations for easing next year. The real variables are the dot plot and the number of dissenting votes, which will expose fractures within the Federal Reserve.
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When others are fearful, I am greedy” — this phrase, revered by countless people as a scripture, was once engraved beside my trading desk. It wasn't until the bear market dragged on like an endless night, and this saying shattered into bubbles amidst repeated liquidation alarms, that I truly understood its cost.
We have all chased the myth of high-flying coins, as if boarding a rocket could take us to the wealth cosmos; we have also stepped into the traps of zeroing out, suddenly plunging into silent darkness amid cheers. It was at that moment I realized that “risk” has never been a distant term written in white papers, but rather the blood and sweat costs that must be calculated behind every decision, the frequency of heart contractions when positions fluctuate, and the thorns of candlestick charts reflected in our eyes while staring at the screen late at night.
Now, I am no longer obsessed with the legend of “getting rich overnight.” What the market has taught me is not how to predict storms, but how to build a ship that can navigate through wind and waves — using position management as ballast, weaving a lifeline with stop-loss discipline, and charting a nautical map through in-depth research. I am no longer infatuated with the noisy festivities, but have learned to discern the signals of value amidst the noise and maintain a clear boundary in the frenzy.
On this road in the crypto world, some rely on luck to break in, but only those with understanding can go far. It is no longer a gamble with the world, but a practice with oneself: finding balance between greed and fear, and maintaining thought between faith and doubt. Wealth may fluctuate, but the understanding, mindset, and perspective that penetrate through cycles are the truly inalienable assets.
Waves will always return, but next time, I will no longer be a drifter flowing with the tide, but a navigator who knows the wind direction, depth, and course. Because true investment ultimately flows toward the ever-growing self.
#中美贸易谈判
We have all chased the myth of high-flying coins, as if boarding a rocket could take us to the wealth cosmos; we have also stepped into the traps of zeroing out, suddenly plunging into silent darkness amid cheers. It was at that moment I realized that “risk” has never been a distant term written in white papers, but rather the blood and sweat costs that must be calculated behind every decision, the frequency of heart contractions when positions fluctuate, and the thorns of candlestick charts reflected in our eyes while staring at the screen late at night.
Now, I am no longer obsessed with the legend of “getting rich overnight.” What the market has taught me is not how to predict storms, but how to build a ship that can navigate through wind and waves — using position management as ballast, weaving a lifeline with stop-loss discipline, and charting a nautical map through in-depth research. I am no longer infatuated with the noisy festivities, but have learned to discern the signals of value amidst the noise and maintain a clear boundary in the frenzy.
On this road in the crypto world, some rely on luck to break in, but only those with understanding can go far. It is no longer a gamble with the world, but a practice with oneself: finding balance between greed and fear, and maintaining thought between faith and doubt. Wealth may fluctuate, but the understanding, mindset, and perspective that penetrate through cycles are the truly inalienable assets.
Waves will always return, but next time, I will no longer be a drifter flowing with the tide, but a navigator who knows the wind direction, depth, and course. Because true investment ultimately flows toward the ever-growing self.
#中美贸易谈判
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Market Overview | Key Points Before Critical Events
1. Core of the Event
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday is the only focus this week. The market has bet on a 25 basis point rate cut, watching whether the announcement will lead to a 'positive outcome' or trigger a new upward trend.
2. Behavioral Interpretation
Saturday's consolidation and Sunday’s 'Heaven and Earth Needle' volatility are typical actions of the main players washing out positions and collecting chips before significant events, indicating that volatility will increase.
3. Key Positions
· Strength Weakness Divide: $92,000
· Stabilizing Above: Expected to test $96,000-$98,000.
· Losing Below: Key defense at the psychological level of $90,000, if broken, could lead to a deep correction to $87,000-$87,500.
4. Strategic Focus
1. Main Direction: Overall bullish, but avoid chasing highs. Prioritize buying low after a pullback, or wait for a clear breakout above $92,000 to follow on the right side.
2. Be Cautious with Shorts: The risk of going short against the trend is extremely high before the upward structure is clearly damaged.
3. Risk Control First: Volatility will inevitably increase around Thursday, so ensure light positions and strict stop-losses to guard against unexpected fluctuations.
Summary: Wait for direction, guard against volatility. Break above $92,000 to follow on the long side, holding $90,000 means the trend is not broken. #美联储重启降息步伐
1. Core of the Event
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday is the only focus this week. The market has bet on a 25 basis point rate cut, watching whether the announcement will lead to a 'positive outcome' or trigger a new upward trend.
2. Behavioral Interpretation
Saturday's consolidation and Sunday’s 'Heaven and Earth Needle' volatility are typical actions of the main players washing out positions and collecting chips before significant events, indicating that volatility will increase.
3. Key Positions
· Strength Weakness Divide: $92,000
· Stabilizing Above: Expected to test $96,000-$98,000.
· Losing Below: Key defense at the psychological level of $90,000, if broken, could lead to a deep correction to $87,000-$87,500.
4. Strategic Focus
1. Main Direction: Overall bullish, but avoid chasing highs. Prioritize buying low after a pullback, or wait for a clear breakout above $92,000 to follow on the right side.
2. Be Cautious with Shorts: The risk of going short against the trend is extremely high before the upward structure is clearly damaged.
3. Risk Control First: Volatility will inevitably increase around Thursday, so ensure light positions and strict stop-losses to guard against unexpected fluctuations.
Summary: Wait for direction, guard against volatility. Break above $92,000 to follow on the long side, holding $90,000 means the trend is not broken. #美联储重启降息步伐
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1. Current Status
• Price: Currently fluctuating around the key range of $3,100 - $3,200.
• Short-term outlook: Direction unclear, awaiting a breakout. Whether it can hold above this level is crucial.
2. Two Key Points to Watch
• Resistance: $3,200 - $3,350 area. A successful breakout could open up further upside potential.
• Support: $3,000 - $3,100 area. Especially $3,100; a breach of this level would significantly increase short-term risk.
3. Core Influencing Factors
• Federal Reserve Decision (Biggest Event This Week):
• High probability of an interest rate cut: Already anticipated by the market; if implemented, it could provide short-term support.
• The key lies in the rhetoric: Whether Powell's speech is dovish (continued easing) or hawkish (cautious) will determine the subsequent direction.
• Beware of volatility: Prices may experience significant two-way fluctuations before and after the decision announcement.
4. Key Developments to Watch
* Short-term (1-4 weeks): Determined by the outcome of the Fed meeting and the performance of the $3,100 support level.
* Medium- to long-term: Dependent on the effectiveness of its "Fusaka" network upgrade (aimed at reducing fees and increasing speed) and the progress of US regulations (such as staking rules and spot ETFs).
In short: ETH is at a critical juncture, awaiting guidance from the Fed meeting. Short-term volatility is inevitable; long-term performance depends on the development of its ecosystem and the influx of external funds.
Note: The above analysis is based on publicly available information. The market is constantly changing; please make decisions cautiously and manage your risks effectively. #ETH走势分析
• Price: Currently fluctuating around the key range of $3,100 - $3,200.
• Short-term outlook: Direction unclear, awaiting a breakout. Whether it can hold above this level is crucial.
2. Two Key Points to Watch
• Resistance: $3,200 - $3,350 area. A successful breakout could open up further upside potential.
• Support: $3,000 - $3,100 area. Especially $3,100; a breach of this level would significantly increase short-term risk.
3. Core Influencing Factors
• Federal Reserve Decision (Biggest Event This Week):
• High probability of an interest rate cut: Already anticipated by the market; if implemented, it could provide short-term support.
• The key lies in the rhetoric: Whether Powell's speech is dovish (continued easing) or hawkish (cautious) will determine the subsequent direction.
• Beware of volatility: Prices may experience significant two-way fluctuations before and after the decision announcement.
4. Key Developments to Watch
* Short-term (1-4 weeks): Determined by the outcome of the Fed meeting and the performance of the $3,100 support level.
* Medium- to long-term: Dependent on the effectiveness of its "Fusaka" network upgrade (aimed at reducing fees and increasing speed) and the progress of US regulations (such as staking rules and spot ETFs).
In short: ETH is at a critical juncture, awaiting guidance from the Fed meeting. Short-term volatility is inevitable; long-term performance depends on the development of its ecosystem and the influx of external funds.
Note: The above analysis is based on publicly available information. The market is constantly changing; please make decisions cautiously and manage your risks effectively. #ETH走势分析
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This week, the global financial markets will welcome the focus event of the 'Super Central Bank Week.' At 3 a.m. Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce its December interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 3:30 a.m. Currently, market expectations are strong, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has exceeded 86%.
Driven by the expectation of a rate cut, the precious metals market performed actively in the morning session today. On Monday, December 8, the spot gold continued its upward trend, testing the $4200/oz mark again; spot silver also rose in tandem, up 0.23% as of the time of writing, reported at $58.423/oz. The market is closely watching the Fed's decision results to determine the subsequent monetary policy path and the trend of precious metals. #比特币VS代币化黄金
Driven by the expectation of a rate cut, the precious metals market performed actively in the morning session today. On Monday, December 8, the spot gold continued its upward trend, testing the $4200/oz mark again; spot silver also rose in tandem, up 0.23% as of the time of writing, reported at $58.423/oz. The market is closely watching the Fed's decision results to determine the subsequent monetary policy path and the trend of precious metals. #比特币VS代币化黄金
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12.8 Afternoon Market Update and Strategy Adjustment
The weak oscillation pattern analyzed in the morning continues, with strong caution in the market ahead of major macro events. Below is a review of the market along with strategies based on the latest developments.
Core Market Dynamics and Data
· Bitcoin Status: Continuing to oscillate around the key level of $91,000, with intense competition between bulls and bears. The area between $93,000 and $93,500 constitutes strong resistance, while the area between $90,000 and $90,500 is an important support zone.
· Ethereum Status: Currently fluctuating around $3,060 as the market corrects. Technically, there is a clear pressure from the hourly moving averages, and the MACD indicator is weak. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the key support can be maintained.
Core Market Dynamics and Data
· Bitcoin Status: Continuing to oscillate around the key level of $91,000, with intense competition between bulls and bears. The area between $93,000 and $93,500 constitutes strong resistance, while the area between $90,000 and $90,500 is an important support zone.
· Ethereum Status: Currently fluctuating around $3,060 as the market corrects. Technically, there is a clear pressure from the hourly moving averages, and the MACD indicator is weak. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the key support can be maintained.
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Bitcoin Real-time Market | Key Decision Points
Current Price: $89,303.20 | 24-hour Change: -0.74%
Key Positions
· Current Range: Continuing to consolidate around $89K.
· Upper Resistance: $90K, breaking through may trigger a short-term rebound.
· Lower Support: $88K (recent low), a break below may deepen the pullback.
Market Sentiment and Background
Market sentiment is cautious ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Both bulls and bears are fiercely competing at key levels, and volatility is expected to increase, with a directional choice imminent. Please ensure proper risk management.
Interactive Topic
The price is stuck at a key level; is it building up for an upward attack or will it retest?
Share your views in the comments: Bullish 🚀 or Bearish 🐻?
---
If you want to get more in-depth technical analysis or understand the potential impacts of the Federal Reserve meeting, I can provide further analysis. #加密市场观察
Current Price: $89,303.20 | 24-hour Change: -0.74%
Key Positions
· Current Range: Continuing to consolidate around $89K.
· Upper Resistance: $90K, breaking through may trigger a short-term rebound.
· Lower Support: $88K (recent low), a break below may deepen the pullback.
Market Sentiment and Background
Market sentiment is cautious ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Both bulls and bears are fiercely competing at key levels, and volatility is expected to increase, with a directional choice imminent. Please ensure proper risk management.
Interactive Topic
The price is stuck at a key level; is it building up for an upward attack or will it retest?
Share your views in the comments: Bullish 🚀 or Bearish 🐻?
---
If you want to get more in-depth technical analysis or understand the potential impacts of the Federal Reserve meeting, I can provide further analysis. #加密市场观察
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Ethereum: Extremely Scarce, Key Upgrade
The current core dynamics of Ethereum can be condensed into two points:
1. Extremely Tight Supply
The exchange ETH reserves have dropped to 8.7%, a historical low. A large amount of ETH is locked for the long term, and the circulating supply continues to decrease, creating a foundation of scarcity.
2. Completion of the Fusaka Upgrade
The network has just activated the key "Fusaka" upgrade, introducing PeerDAS technology, aimed at significantly reducing Layer2 costs and preparing for large-scale ecosystem expansion.
Market Bull-Bear Divergence:
· Bullish: Institutional funds are accumulating spot positions on dips.
· Bearish: Some traders are increasing short positions, betting on short-term trends.
Simple Summary: Short-term sentiment is under pressure, but the fundamentals are strengthening in the long term due to "technical upgrades + supply scarcity." Market volatility may intensify, and it ultimately depends on whether you focus on the fluctuations of the next moment or the narrative of the coming years. #ETH走势分析
The current core dynamics of Ethereum can be condensed into two points:
1. Extremely Tight Supply
The exchange ETH reserves have dropped to 8.7%, a historical low. A large amount of ETH is locked for the long term, and the circulating supply continues to decrease, creating a foundation of scarcity.
2. Completion of the Fusaka Upgrade
The network has just activated the key "Fusaka" upgrade, introducing PeerDAS technology, aimed at significantly reducing Layer2 costs and preparing for large-scale ecosystem expansion.
Market Bull-Bear Divergence:
· Bullish: Institutional funds are accumulating spot positions on dips.
· Bearish: Some traders are increasing short positions, betting on short-term trends.
Simple Summary: Short-term sentiment is under pressure, but the fundamentals are strengthening in the long term due to "technical upgrades + supply scarcity." Market volatility may intensify, and it ultimately depends on whether you focus on the fluctuations of the next moment or the narrative of the coming years. #ETH走势分析
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Core Market Dynamics
Extreme scarcity and a crucial leap: The core narrative of Ethereum at present
The current Ethereum market is at a complex and critical juncture, centered around 'unprecedented supply tightening' and 'far-reaching technological upgrades,' with bulls and bears fiercely competing.
1. Supply side: Entering the 'extreme scarcity' era
Ethereum's reserves on centralized exchanges (CEX) have dropped to just 8.7% of the circulating supply, marking the lowest level since the network's launch in 2015. A large amount of ETH is continuously flowing into long-term lock-up scenarios such as staking, Layer 2 networks, and institutional vaults. Analysts warn that the market is entering a state of 'extreme scarcity' in supply, and this structural supply tightening could serve as a solid foundation for future price increases.
The current Ethereum market is at a complex and critical juncture, centered around 'unprecedented supply tightening' and 'far-reaching technological upgrades,' with bulls and bears fiercely competing.
1. Supply side: Entering the 'extreme scarcity' era
Ethereum's reserves on centralized exchanges (CEX) have dropped to just 8.7% of the circulating supply, marking the lowest level since the network's launch in 2015. A large amount of ETH is continuously flowing into long-term lock-up scenarios such as staking, Layer 2 networks, and institutional vaults. Analysts warn that the market is entering a state of 'extreme scarcity' in supply, and this structural supply tightening could serve as a solid foundation for future price increases.
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#Bitcoin Digital Currency [Trending Topic]# On the evening of 12.7, short-term outlook
The 1-hour chart of Bitcoin shows a retracement trend. The price has continuously fallen after peaking at 90257, now breaking below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 89473, approaching the lower band at 89049, with short-term bearish momentum strengthening.
Technical signals are bearish: KDJ has formed a death cross, MACD red bars are shortening, and bullish momentum is weakening. The Bollinger Bands are flattening, showing signs of a potential breakdown to the downside.
If it breaks below 89049, it may further probe below 88870; even if there is a rebound, it is expected to face pressure near the middle band at 89473.
In terms of operation, if it rebounds to the 89800-90600 area, consider lightly shorting, with a target looking towards around 88200-87100.
The above is personal analysis for reference only; please make cautious decisions for specific operations. $BTC#比特币预测
The 1-hour chart of Bitcoin shows a retracement trend. The price has continuously fallen after peaking at 90257, now breaking below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 89473, approaching the lower band at 89049, with short-term bearish momentum strengthening.
Technical signals are bearish: KDJ has formed a death cross, MACD red bars are shortening, and bullish momentum is weakening. The Bollinger Bands are flattening, showing signs of a potential breakdown to the downside.
If it breaks below 89049, it may further probe below 88870; even if there is a rebound, it is expected to face pressure near the middle band at 89473.
In terms of operation, if it rebounds to the 89800-90600 area, consider lightly shorting, with a target looking towards around 88200-87100.
The above is personal analysis for reference only; please make cautious decisions for specific operations. $BTC#比特币预测
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Powell Begins His Offensive
Time for the cryptocurrency world is running out; Powell may soon launch an attack.
Don’t think that a rate cut is necessarily good news. This rate cut feels more like a forced move, with the focus on Powell's speech at 3:30 AM—he is likely to make extremely hawkish statements to pave the way for pausing rate cuts next time, which could potentially scare the market.
The interest rate has dropped to 3.5%, which is close to neutral and no longer a restrictive level. Inflation remains high at 3%, and the economy shows resilience, so the Federal Reserve actually has no urgent reason to cut rates. Therefore, I believe that after the rate cut, the market may likely take a sharp downturn.
Personally, I will be looking to establish long positions on highs. If seeking stability, one can also wait for a full market correction next year to buy the dip. It is expected that the situation will change in the second half of next year, and a new round of easing may begin, at which point the market is expected to welcome several years of upward trends.
Don’t think that a rate cut is necessarily good news. This rate cut feels more like a forced move, with the focus on Powell's speech at 3:30 AM—he is likely to make extremely hawkish statements to pave the way for pausing rate cuts next time, which could potentially scare the market.
The interest rate has dropped to 3.5%, which is close to neutral and no longer a restrictive level. Inflation remains high at 3%, and the economy shows resilience, so the Federal Reserve actually has no urgent reason to cut rates. Therefore, I believe that after the rate cut, the market may likely take a sharp downturn.
Personally, I will be looking to establish long positions on highs. If seeking stability, one can also wait for a full market correction next year to buy the dip. It is expected that the situation will change in the second half of next year, and a new round of easing may begin, at which point the market is expected to welcome several years of upward trends.
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The ETH pullback has arrived, a key operation guide for the last five days before the interest rate cut
Finally waited for it! The ETH pullback has appeared, and the key support is facing a test. In the last 5 days before the interest rate cut, be careful not to step into a pit.
After being asked for three days about 'When will ETH pull back?', we now have an answer: the pullback has started.
I have been closely watching the $3300 mark for ETH for nearly a week. Previously, prices surged with anxiety in the community about whether to chase or not. I once reminded: the main force is waiting for the interest rate cut window, and the rise may be a way to 'hand out chips'. Sure enough, today the market opened lower, and those who chased high must be reflecting.
The core contradiction is: there are only 5 days left until the expected interest rate cut, but the upcoming weekend 'market vacuum period' is the key variable. With six years of experience, I have seen too many scripts of 'weekend consolidation, Monday big drop'; this time, we need to be especially vigilant.
After being asked for three days about 'When will ETH pull back?', we now have an answer: the pullback has started.
I have been closely watching the $3300 mark for ETH for nearly a week. Previously, prices surged with anxiety in the community about whether to chase or not. I once reminded: the main force is waiting for the interest rate cut window, and the rise may be a way to 'hand out chips'. Sure enough, today the market opened lower, and those who chased high must be reflecting.
The core contradiction is: there are only 5 days left until the expected interest rate cut, but the upcoming weekend 'market vacuum period' is the key variable. With six years of experience, I have seen too many scripts of 'weekend consolidation, Monday big drop'; this time, we need to be especially vigilant.
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Bitcoin is currently reported at $89,518.42, with the market volume indicating that a large proportion of capital entering the market comes from big players, while the characteristics of exiting funds are reflected in small retail investors.
Some analysts believe that despite the recent decline in Bitcoin prices, the on-chain activity indicator (liveliness) for this cycle has been continuously rising. This suggests that there is a solid bottom for the demand for spot Bitcoin, which has not been fully reflected in the price trend, possibly indicating that the bull market cycle for this round has not yet ended.
The analyst pointed out that this indicator reflects the long-term moving average of Bitcoin on-chain activities, which is the sum of all lifecycle expenditures and on-chain holding activities. During a bull market, as supply changes hands at higher prices, market "activity" typically increases, often indicating that new investment capital continues to flow in. #比特币走势分析 #比特币预测
Some analysts believe that despite the recent decline in Bitcoin prices, the on-chain activity indicator (liveliness) for this cycle has been continuously rising. This suggests that there is a solid bottom for the demand for spot Bitcoin, which has not been fully reflected in the price trend, possibly indicating that the bull market cycle for this round has not yet ended.
The analyst pointed out that this indicator reflects the long-term moving average of Bitcoin on-chain activities, which is the sum of all lifecycle expenditures and on-chain holding activities. During a bull market, as supply changes hands at higher prices, market "activity" typically increases, often indicating that new investment capital continues to flow in. #比特币走势分析 #比特币预测
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The rumors of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December are running rampant, while the Bank of Japan is making noise about raising rates, leaving the cryptocurrency market in a state of confusion. In fact, regardless of how Japan adjusts, its economic scale is ultimately limited.
The Federal Reserve plans to review interest rate policy at the meeting on December 9-10. The financial markets generally expect a reduction of 0.25 percentage points, bringing the federal funds target rate range down to 3.75% to 4%.
Expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December have also risen sharply, with CME FedWatch data indicating that the likelihood of a rate cut has increased to about 87%.
The most closely watched is still Powell's mouth; no one knows whether his next statement will be “hawkish” or “dovish.”
Today in the cryptocurrency market, inscriptions and Meme coins are strong, and Ethereum seems to be performing better than Bitcoin. #ETH走势分析
The Federal Reserve plans to review interest rate policy at the meeting on December 9-10. The financial markets generally expect a reduction of 0.25 percentage points, bringing the federal funds target rate range down to 3.75% to 4%.
Expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December have also risen sharply, with CME FedWatch data indicating that the likelihood of a rate cut has increased to about 87%.
The most closely watched is still Powell's mouth; no one knows whether his next statement will be “hawkish” or “dovish.”
Today in the cryptocurrency market, inscriptions and Meme coins are strong, and Ethereum seems to be performing better than Bitcoin. #ETH走势分析
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Good morning! ☀️ Iron fans check-in, let's like and make a fortune together! 👍🍗🌹
A new day begins, and the crypto market continues to brew new hotspots. The market has been fluctuating over the past two days, with Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidating around 90000 and 3000 points respectively, showing a clear wait-and-see stance.
This rhythm often indicates that we are waiting for key signals for guidance. Next week, the market will welcome several important events: the release of U.S. economic data, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, Powell's speech, and the dot plot announcement. Currently, the market generally expects little suspense regarding the Fed's interest rate cut in December, while the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike trends continue to attract attention. Amid multiple intertwining messages, it is expected that the crypto market will see significant fluctuations again next week, which will be a key moment for determining the future direction of the market.
Stay tuned, be prepared, and let's continue to track the market changes together! 🚀#隐私币生态普涨
A new day begins, and the crypto market continues to brew new hotspots. The market has been fluctuating over the past two days, with Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidating around 90000 and 3000 points respectively, showing a clear wait-and-see stance.
This rhythm often indicates that we are waiting for key signals for guidance. Next week, the market will welcome several important events: the release of U.S. economic data, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, Powell's speech, and the dot plot announcement. Currently, the market generally expects little suspense regarding the Fed's interest rate cut in December, while the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike trends continue to attract attention. Amid multiple intertwining messages, it is expected that the crypto market will see significant fluctuations again next week, which will be a key moment for determining the future direction of the market.
Stay tuned, be prepared, and let's continue to track the market changes together! 🚀#隐私币生态普涨
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Next week's outlook focuses on three points:
1. Interest rate cuts are coming, but surprises are unlikely.
· Definitely a cut: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week.
· The key is the follow-up: The market is betting on three significant cuts in 2026, while the Fed has only hinted at two. If the Fed does not change its stance (which is very likely), it will be "good news fully priced in," making the market prone to a drop.
2. Be cautious of the Bank of Japan "withdrawing liquidity."
· Japan is likely to tighten monetary policy simultaneously, leading to a global dollar influx back to Japan.
· Result: This could offset some of the easing effect from the Fed's rate cuts, potentially triggering simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and other global assets, increasing volatility.
3. Gold and A-shares: Short-term fluctuations, waiting for buying opportunities.
· Gold: After the rate cut is implemented, it could easily drop sharply due to "expectations being fulfilled" and the liquidity withdrawal from Japan. However, this drop may present an opportunity for positioning ahead of the bull market in 2026.
· A-shares (in the tight stone field): Being pulled in two directions by internal policies and external liquidity withdrawal, the direction choice will be delayed. We need to wait for external storms to pass for internal forces to take the lead.
Summary: Next week is a "high volatility" week, and operations should be "shock-proof."
· Don't chase highs: All good news has already been priced in.
· Wait for a pullback: Focus on preventing a market reversal and decline after the announcement.
· Think long-term: Short-term fluctuations are preparing for the real differentiated bull market in 2026, consider buying only after significant drops. #美联储降息预期升温
1. Interest rate cuts are coming, but surprises are unlikely.
· Definitely a cut: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week.
· The key is the follow-up: The market is betting on three significant cuts in 2026, while the Fed has only hinted at two. If the Fed does not change its stance (which is very likely), it will be "good news fully priced in," making the market prone to a drop.
2. Be cautious of the Bank of Japan "withdrawing liquidity."
· Japan is likely to tighten monetary policy simultaneously, leading to a global dollar influx back to Japan.
· Result: This could offset some of the easing effect from the Fed's rate cuts, potentially triggering simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and other global assets, increasing volatility.
3. Gold and A-shares: Short-term fluctuations, waiting for buying opportunities.
· Gold: After the rate cut is implemented, it could easily drop sharply due to "expectations being fulfilled" and the liquidity withdrawal from Japan. However, this drop may present an opportunity for positioning ahead of the bull market in 2026.
· A-shares (in the tight stone field): Being pulled in two directions by internal policies and external liquidity withdrawal, the direction choice will be delayed. We need to wait for external storms to pass for internal forces to take the lead.
Summary: Next week is a "high volatility" week, and operations should be "shock-proof."
· Don't chase highs: All good news has already been priced in.
· Wait for a pullback: Focus on preventing a market reversal and decline after the announcement.
· Think long-term: Short-term fluctuations are preparing for the real differentiated bull market in 2026, consider buying only after significant drops. #美联储降息预期升温
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Weekend Market Characteristics and Strategy Reference:
Market Rhythm
Saturday usually sees narrowed fluctuations, mainly characterized by oscillation. The real opportunity window often opens on Sunday afternoon until the night session.
Current Position
Still in the bottom repair and bottom building range, it is recommended to operate with a "range trading" mindset and remain flexible.
Operation Ideas
① Short Opportunities
There is clear resistance near 3075
Can lightly short in the 3030-3050 range
Target towards 2975-2950
Exit when the target is reached, do not linger
② Long Opportunities
If a stop-loss signal appears in the 2975-2950 range, can reverse and go long
Target towards 3050-3075
③ Key Risk Control
If the support at 2975-2950 fails, do not force a position
Patiently wait for the main force to push the price to the 2750-2820 range before considering bottom-fishing opportunities
Core Summary
Maintain a range mindset, act when signals appear, and stay on the sidelines when there are no signals. Do not get bogged down, do not hold positions blindly. #巨鲸动向
Market Rhythm
Saturday usually sees narrowed fluctuations, mainly characterized by oscillation. The real opportunity window often opens on Sunday afternoon until the night session.
Current Position
Still in the bottom repair and bottom building range, it is recommended to operate with a "range trading" mindset and remain flexible.
Operation Ideas
① Short Opportunities
There is clear resistance near 3075
Can lightly short in the 3030-3050 range
Target towards 2975-2950
Exit when the target is reached, do not linger
② Long Opportunities
If a stop-loss signal appears in the 2975-2950 range, can reverse and go long
Target towards 3050-3075
③ Key Risk Control
If the support at 2975-2950 fails, do not force a position
Patiently wait for the main force to push the price to the 2750-2820 range before considering bottom-fishing opportunities
Core Summary
Maintain a range mindset, act when signals appear, and stay on the sidelines when there are no signals. Do not get bogged down, do not hold positions blindly. #巨鲸动向
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In the news, LUNC and LUNA have surged significantly, possibly related to the potential pardon of SBF.
Market data shows that LUNC has increased by 70.3% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap currently reported at $342 million; LUNA has increased by 38.2% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap currently reported at $131 million. The rise of LUNC and LUNA may be connected to the market's belief that FTX founder SBF has a potential chance of receiving a pardon. #ETH走势分析
Market data shows that LUNC has increased by 70.3% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap currently reported at $342 million; LUNA has increased by 38.2% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap currently reported at $131 million. The rise of LUNC and LUNA may be connected to the market's belief that FTX founder SBF has a potential chance of receiving a pardon. #ETH走势分析
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