SU-Bhat

Introduction
On November 10, Linea (LINEA) released a massive ~2.88 billion tokens, which analysts say put serious downward pressure on the token’s price. Recently, the price slid from ~$0.015 to around $0.01, a level that many in the community consider critical support.
Now, as December 10 approaches, another unlock is on the horizon — roughly 1.14–1.38 billion LINEA tokens, according to various sources. This upcoming release could once again challenge the demand/supply balance and influence whether $0.01 holds or breaks.

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1. What Actually Happened on November 10

According to multiple reports, 2.88B LINEA tokens unlocked on November 10.

This is a huge chunk — some sources say it accounted for 16.44% of the circulating supply at the time.

The unlock was distributed across different categories:

~600 M LINEA for long-term alignment

~480 M for the Ignition program

~1.8 B reserved for future airdrops or ecosystem use

As a result, many analysts see this as a major source of sell pressure, especially from insiders or those who received tokens in vesting.

The price drop from $0.015 to around $0.01 is viewed by many as a direct consequence of this supply shock.

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2. What’s Coming on December 10

According to Coindar, Linea is scheduled to unlock ~1.38 billion LINEA tokens on December 10, 2025.

That’s about 6.76% of the current circulating supply, per Coindar.

This upcoming unlock could again increase selling pressure – unless demand absorbs it strongly.

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3. Why $0.01 Is a Critical Level

Support Test: The $0.01 mark isn’t just a random number — many traders see it as a psychological and technical support level.

Balance of Forces: On one hand, there's rising supply due to token unlocks. On the other, demand must remain strong to absorb that incoming supply, or risk a breakdown.

Volatility Risk: If demand isn’t enough, the unlock could trigger a new wave of selling, driving the price below $0.01. But if buyers step in, this could be a major accumulation point.

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4. Risks & Scenarios to Watch

Here are a few potential scenarios, and what they could mean for LINEA price:

Scenario What Could Happen

Strong demand + accumulation The $0.01 level holds → possible bounce → longer-term consolidation.
Moderate demand, unlock sells Price may oscillate around $0.01 → increased volatility → short-term trades dominate.
Weak demand + heavy selling Breakdown below $0.01 → possible further drop → risk of “capitulation” or deeper support needed.

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5. Key Factors That Will Influence What Happens

1. On-chain demand

Are users bridging / staking / building on Linea?

Is adoption increasing (DeFi activity, NFT usage, etc)?

2. Buyer behavior

Will large holders (vesting recipients) dump their allocations?

Or will they hold or re-stake?

3. Macro / market sentiment

If the broader crypto market is bearish, unlocks become more dangerous.

If bulls are back, they could absorb unlocks more easily.

4. Project fundamentals

Is Linea delivering on roadmap promises (EVM performance, integrations)?

Are there news, partnerships, or ecosystem growth to support token value?

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6. Final Thoughts & What to Watch

The Nov 10 unlock was massive and likely contributed to LINEA’s drop to ~$0.01.

The Dec 10 unlock is not trivial — 1.14–1.38 B tokens is a large addition to supply, and whether it causes a crash or not depends heavily on demand.

$0.01 is a critical battleground: it represents the tension between unlocked supply and the strength (or weakness) of demand.

Traders should watch closely: how the market reacts in the days leading up to December 10 will be key. On-chain data (wallets, volume), news on ecosystem growth, and community sentiment can give clues about whether the unlock will be absorbed or dumped.

🚨 Risk Warning

This is not financial advice. Token unlock events can cause high volatility. Anyone trading or investing in LINEA should do
their own research (DYOR), understand the unlock schedule, and manage risk carefully — especially around these unlock dates.

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