浅墨主流币观察分析

Let's talk about a key question: Even if Hasset becomes the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, can it really bring about a quick wave of interest rate cuts?

The core logic is that the Federal Reserve is not a one-man show but a committee. PGIM's fund mogul Peters pointed this out: Hasset may personally lean towards easing, but he needs to persuade other committee members. What the market is currently worried about is precisely his lack of credibility in building consensus.

What does this mean for the crypto market?

1. Short-term expectations may cool down: If the market begins to believe that "changing the chairman ≠ a sudden policy shift," then the optimistic bets on rapid and substantial interest rate cuts next year will wane. This could put short-term pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
2. However, long-term uncertainty is decreasing: This situation instead highlights the checks and balances in the Federal Reserve's decision-making mechanism. This means that regardless of who becomes chairman, the likelihood of drastic policy swings has decreased. In the long run, reducing unpredictable extreme fluctuations is not a bad thing for the healthy development of the market.
3. The real focus should shift: Instead of over-speculating on personnel changes, it is better to return to fundamentals: inflation and employment data. These are the key factors that ultimately drive all committee members' votes. Each important data release in the future may trigger a market repricing of policy paths.

Operationally, it can be viewed as follows:

· Be wary of short-term emotional fluctuations caused by "personnel hype"; do not blindly chase after price increases or sell-off.
· Shift the focus from "who becomes chairman" back to "how is the economic data."
· Maintain a certain degree of positional flexibility until the policy path is clarified.

In summary, changing a part in the Federal Reserve machine will not immediately alter its direction. For us, focusing on the road surface (economic data) is more practical than focusing on the driver (chairman candidate).

(Source: PGIM expert opinions and Bloomberg reports, for reference only, not investment advice) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Let's talk about next week's Federal Reserve meeting and what the market is concerned about.

To put it simply, a 25 basis point rate cut in December is now almost a consensus expectation in the market. But the trouble lies not in this meeting, but in next year: how much to cut and why to cut, these two opposing voices are arguing fiercely.

The market is pulling between two scenarios:

· Dovish scenario (worried about employment): believes that the Federal Reserve is more afraid of a sudden spike in the unemployment rate (especially since AI may have already begun to impact college graduate employment), so it would cut rates to “support” even if inflation is temporarily high. This is potentially positive for market liquidity.
· Hawkish scenario (worried about inflation): believes the economy is still strong, and inflation is stubborn, so the room for rate cuts is actually limited. Some officials have clearly opposed, arguing that rate cuts won't solve the employment issues brought about by “technology and demographic structure.”

The impact path on the cryptocurrency market:

1. Short term (next week): the focus is not on “whether to cut rates,” but on Powell's remarks after the meeting. If he hints at “we are almost there,” the market may feel disappointed; if he emphasizes “watch the data, especially employment,” the dovish narrative will prevail, which is positive for sentiment.
2. Medium term (next year): the real contest lies in the data. Every employment and inflation data release will cause these two forces to ebb and flow, and market volatility is inevitable. If the narrative of “worried about employment” is continuously validated, expectations for liquidity easing will be stronger.

In terms of operations, one can pay attention to:

· After next week's meeting, if the market falls due to “hawkish statements,” don’t rush to panic sell; clarify whether it’s short-term sentiment or a trend change.
· In the first half of next year, the details of employment data (especially for highly educated individuals) may influence the Federal Reserve's real thoughts more than inflation data.
· During this period of expectation confusion, being flexible in positions is more important than directional judgment.

In summary, what the market is buying now is not “rate cuts,” but “what the Federal Reserve is worried about.” Concern about employment is not necessarily a bad thing for us.

(Source: Financial Times of the UK and analysis from several institutions, for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Goldman's latest report is quite information-heavy.

First, the consensus: a rate cut in December is basically a foregone conclusion. But the real key to the report is its outlook for next year—Goldman believes that due to the potential acceleration of economic growth, the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will clearly slow down in the first half of the year (for example, no action in January, followed by moves in March and June).

However, there is a noteworthy signal hidden within: the employment data for American college students is showing a clear weakening. The unemployment rate for graduates over the age of 25 has risen by about 50% compared to the end of 2022, and the situation is even more pronounced for younger graduates. Goldman suggests that this might be a real impact on the job market due to the replacement by technologies such as AI. If this trend continues, it could not only affect overall consumption but could also force the Federal Reserve to cut rates more aggressively than expected.

For the market, there are two narratives pulling in different directions:

· On one side is the narrative of "the economy is doing well, slowly cut rates,"
· On the other side is the narrative of "structural employment issues emerging, forcing greater easing."

If the latter gradually becomes the main storyline, the liquidity environment may be more accommodative than what the current market expects.

Points worth observing:

1. Short-term sentiment may be suppressed by expectations of "slowing rate cuts," especially if subsequent economic data turns out to be stronger.
2. However, the medium-term factor that truly impacts the market may be "why cut rates"—if it is due to hidden structural issues necessitating easing, it may not be a bad thing for assets like cryptocurrencies.
3. It is recommended not to focus solely on the number of rate cuts, but to pay attention to the underlying economic data, especially the changes in employment details.

In summary, the main storyline for the macro environment next year may not be inflation, but employment.

(Source: Goldman Sachs Global Economic Outlook Report, for reference only, not constituting investment advice) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Tonight, the market is more concerned about the "Little Non-Farm" than usual.

Due to the unexpected absence of official non-farm data this week, the ADP employment report, which was originally just a leading indicator (to be released at 21:15 tonight), has become the market's "main window" for speculating on the employment situation. It is foreseeable that market fluctuations tonight may be amplified.

Let’s briefly outline possible scenarios:

· If the data is below expectations (especially if negative values appear): it will strengthen the expectation of "economic weakening → earlier rate cuts," which could help alleviate liquidity anxiety for risk assets, and market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space may improve accordingly.
· If the data is significantly stronger than expected: it may temporarily suppress the current optimistic narrative surrounding rate cuts, and a stronger dollar will create short-term pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

It is worth noting that predictions from major institutions range from -50,000 to +50,000, showing significant divergence and indicating that the market does not have a unified view on this. In such an environment, any unexpected results may trigger emotional fluctuations.

Here are a few thoughts to consider:

1. The hour following the data release is often the most volatile, so if your position leverage is high, it is advisable to manage risk exposure in advance.
2. Single data points will not change the medium-term trend, so avoid chasing gains or cutting losses during extreme fluctuations, as it is easy to be disturbed by short-term noise.
3. If the market experiences a rapid sweep, it may be wise to patiently wait for market sentiment to stabilize before reassessing the direction.

In summary, it is advisable to stay alert tonight, but there is no need to rush into action during the most volatile moments. Once the market digests the initial reaction, the trend will often become clearer.

(Compiled from Jinshi Data and institutional forecasts for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Have you all noticed that banks have recently started to scramble for cash?

The latest data shows that Bank of America borrowed $26 billion through the Federal Reserve's emergency lending facility on Monday, marking the second-highest single-day borrowing since the 2020 crisis. Simply put, short-term funding among financial institutions is becoming tight, and financing costs are quietly rising.

What potential impacts could this have on the crypto market?

From a short-term sentiment perspective, the market may come under pressure. When liquidity tightens, risk assets often bear the brunt, and cryptocurrencies are not entirely immune to volatility, especially with high leverage positions requiring caution.

The mid-term direction still depends on the Federal Reserve's response. If the funding tightness persists, it may prompt the Fed to adopt more accommodative policies in the future. Once the market forms expectations of liquidity easing, assets like Bitcoin may attract more capital as a strategic choice.

Additionally, this signal could exacerbate overall market volatility. Liquidity is already relatively tight at year-end, compounded by such macro uncertainties, market sentiment may be further amplified.

What can we do?

· Understand the signals, but don’t overreact. Just pay attention to how changes in funding affect sentiment.
· Observe whether there is a divergence between U.S. stocks and cryptocurrency trends; independent movements often indicate underlying support.
· Maintain flexible positions to avoid excessive exposure to risk during times of high uncertainty.

Overall, this feels more like a stress test within the financial system, not yet constituting systemic risk, but still worth ongoing attention. We can keep observing and wait for the situation to clarify further.

(Source: Various financial media and institutional analyses, for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Have you all noticed that recently traders are rushing to "jump the gun", focusing on two main issues: the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, and a bunch of economic data that has been postponed for release. In simple terms, they are betting on future "easing".

What exactly is the market betting on?
Mainly betting in one direction: that future interest rates will drop faster and liquidity will be more abundant. There are two points supporting this judgment:

1. Personnel changes may occur: Trump's economic advisor Hassett is a popular candidate. The market generally feels that if he takes office, policy will tilt towards the "dovish" side.
2. Data may validate: The employment data that was delayed due to the previous government shutdown is about to be released. If the data is weak, it will directly provide "ammunition" for interest rate cuts.

Potential impact on digital assets
The impact chain of this logic is as follows:
Market expects more abundant liquidity → Some funds' risk appetite increases → In the medium to long term, this could create a more favorable macro environment for the entire crypto market.

But keep your eyes open
There are always two sides to the story:

· "Adjustment period" volatility: The handover between the new and old chairpersons may cause policy signals to be temporarily unclear, and the market may easily overact, increasing short-term volatility.
· Be wary of "expectations falling short": All bets are based on the combination of "Hassett taking office + weak data". If either of these does not meet expectations, market sentiment may reverse.

A few practical observation angles
In the face of this situation, we can consider it this way:

· Just understand the mainline logic: Realize that the market is currently speculating on "expectations", not the already established reality.
· Keep a close eye on key data: The upcoming employment data is the first checkpoint to validate this "easing story".
· Maintain patience: Before personnel and data are clarified, market sentiment is likely to fluctuate. Being flexible with positions is more prudent than rushing to follow trends.

In summary, the market is pricing in a "new atmosphere" in advance. We can understand their script, but it might be better to wait until the main actors are truly on stage and the plot is clearer to discuss further.

(Views are compiled from various institutional market observations, for reference) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

I just saw an interesting analysis from two major banks (Deutsche Bank and Standard Bank) suggesting that the US dollar may be experiencing some "headaches" lately, facing three potential pressures.

What are the three pressures?
In simple terms, they are three things that could happen simultaneously:

1. Tariffs or changes: The US Supreme Court may rule that previous tariff policies are illegal.
2. The Federal Reserve may change to "insider": If Trump's economic advisor Hassett becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, he is believed to support faster interest rate cuts.
3. Japan may raise interest rates: If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates this month, the yen will strengthen, which in turn will suppress the dollar.

What does this have to do with the digital asset market?
The relationship lies in a common logic: when the dollar weakens, it often benefits alternative assets like Bitcoin. Because:

· A depreciating dollar makes global dollar liquidity appear relatively loose.
· Some funds may seek assets outside of the dollar that potentially offer higher returns.

Possible impact pathways
If these pressures really materialize:

1. Emotionally or constitute support: It will strengthen the market's expectations for a "loose" environment, which is not necessarily bad for digital assets.
2. Increased sources of volatility: The outcomes of these matters are uncertain, and any minor fluctuations may first impact the foreign exchange market, then transmit over.
3. Beware of "expectations falling short": If it turns out to be a false alarm, and the dollar rebounds, the market's optimistic sentiment may also reverse.

Reference thoughts for everyone
In the face of this complex macro situation:

· Understanding logic is more important than guessing results: The focus is not on betting which event will happen, but on understanding the "weak dollar -> risk asset preference rises" transmission chain.
· Grasp the main contradictions: Among these three, the personnel and policy direction of the Federal Reserve have the most direct and lasting impact on the market, worth spending more energy to track.
· Maintain response flexibility: In a tumultuous season, ensuring that one's positions can withstand various unexpected fluctuations is always a good idea.

In summary, this is a macro background change worth noting. It does not constitute a direct operational directive, but it can help us better understand where market sentiment may come from.

(Opinions are synthesized from multiple international investment bank analyses and are for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Is the market's "water pipe" ringing again? Let's talk about the subtle changes in the funding situation.

Recently, several key short-term interest rate indicators that Wall Street is watching have gone up. Simply put, the cost of borrowing money temporarily between banks and financial institutions has recently become a bit more expensive.

Why should we pay attention to this? Because it concerns the market's "water source"—liquidity. Analysts from several major institutions, including JPMorgan and TD Securities, have mentioned that if this tension continues, the Federal Reserve may need to "release some water" next year, such as purchasing government bonds to increase the funds in the market.

Potential impact on digital assets

This impact is indirect, but it can be viewed through the following paths:

1. Short-term sentiment: If the market generally feels that "money has become expensive," risk appetite may cool down, which is not good news for all high-risk assets (including digital assets).
2. Key to the Federal Reserve: However, if this pressure prompts the Federal Reserve to provide liquidity faster or in a larger amount, that would be another story, potentially providing medium to long-term support for the market.
3. Increased volatility: This undoubtedly adds a new uncertainty factor to the market.

A few observational thoughts
In the face of such professional signals:

· Understand the logic: We don't need to become experts in the money market, but knowing that this is happening can help us understand some market fluctuations.
· Clear priorities: Compared to this, the implications of next week's Federal Reserve meeting for next year's policy are a much bigger deal right now.
· Stay flexible: With the end of the year and various events, the market is prone to fluctuations. Ensuring that your position can handle volatility is never a bad thing.

In short, you can understand this signal as an internal "stress test" of the financial system. Whether it evolves into a major problem depends on the judgment and response of the Federal Reserve, the "big housekeeper." We will keep an eye on it, but there's no need for excessive interpretation.

(Compiled from analysis by multiple Wall Street institutions, for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Powell's "silence" brings relief to the market?

I just saw the news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's public speech, and indeed he did not mention interest rates or monetary policy at all, completely discussing the character of a deceased former official. This is not because he has nothing to say, but because the interest rate meeting is coming up next week, and he is now in a "quiet period"—officially banned from making statements that could influence the market.

This "silence" itself is a signal

For the market, this is actually a good thing, as it at least eliminates one uncertainty. Why do I say this?

· Within expectations: Everyone already knew he wouldn’t say anything at this point, so his "silence" is not shocking, but rather reduces the number of variables that need to be speculated upon.
· Focus more concentrated: Everyone's attention will be completely turned to two things: one is the economic data being released this week, and the other is the result of next week's meeting itself.

Possible impact on digital assets

During such times, the market may enter a brief "wait-and-see period":

1. Volatility may temporarily converge: Before the real "big test" (the Federal Reserve meeting) arrives, some funds may choose to wait, and the market may appear relatively calm.
2. Increased external correlation: The "story" of the cryptocurrency market may temporarily weaken, and its price fluctuations may more closely follow the sentiment of traditional risk assets like U.S. stocks.

Recommendations for observation
In the face of this seemingly "uneventful" juncture, you can do the following:

· Stick to the original plan: If you are already prepared for next week's meeting, there is no need to change your strategy tonight.
· Utilize the calm period: You can check your positions and strategies to prepare for the potential volatility ahead.
· Keep a close eye on the data: The real "wind" will come from the upcoming inflation, employment, and other economic data.

In summary, Powell's "silence" is just the whistle for halftime; the real outcome of the match lies ahead. Stay patient, do your homework, and wait for the wind to come.

(Source: Jin10 Data and the official schedule of the Federal Reserve, for reference) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

At 3 AM, Trump has something to say, what should the market pay attention to?

Just saw the news that Trump will make an "announcement" at 3 AM Beijing time tomorrow (December 3). This timing occurs one week before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in December (December 9-10), so his remarks are worth noting.

Why should we pay attention?
Such "major statements" are the greatest uncertainty when there is no specific content. Given that Trump's topics often involve trade, fiscal spending, immigration, or regulatory policy, any unexpected strong remarks could quickly disrupt market sentiment, leading to a reassessment of the economy and policies.

Possible impact pathways
For the digital asset market, this impact is usually indirect and transmitted through sentiment:

1. If it involves fiscal stimulus or easing policies: it may be interpreted as positive for economic growth and risk assets, potentially boosting market sentiment in the short term.
2. If it involves trade friction or hardline policies: it may exacerbate market concerns about economic prospects, elevating risk-averse sentiment and increasing volatility in risk assets (including mainstream digital assets).
3. The most critical point: regardless of the content, the statement may increase overall market volatility in the week ahead, especially at this sensitive time before the Federal Reserve meeting.

Observational advice for everyone
In the face of this "event-driven" volatility, you can do the following:

· Stay calm, no need to pre-judge: Any speculation is insignificant before the specific content is released. Avoid betting in advance based on "possibilities".
· Pay attention to subsequent interpretations: After the announcement is made, focus on the first reactions from mainstream financial media and the market, which are more important than the announcement itself.
· Manage your positions well: Before and after major uncertainty events, reducing leverage and maintaining a flexible cash position is the best way to cope with unexpected volatility.

In summary, this is an "event risk" that needs attention. The real market direction still depends on economic fundamentals and the decisions of core institutions like the Federal Reserve. Let's keep an eye on it, but let the "bullets" fly for a while first.

(This article is based on the publicly released White House schedule analysis and is for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Japan is likely to raise interest rates, and there is a subtle change in the market.

A hint from the Bank of Japan's governor over the weekend stirred the market across the ocean. He mentioned that Japan might raise interest rates, and as soon as he finished speaking, Japanese government bond yields jumped to their highest levels in over a decade. Why does this matter? Because it may lead to unexpected ripple effects.

A simple transmission chain
As the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries, if domestic interest rates in Japan rise, some funds may choose to flow back. This could indirectly push up U.S. Treasury yields. It's important to note that U.S. Treasury yields are a key reference for global asset pricing.

Possible impact on digital assets
This cross-market volatility may bring some emotional disturbances in the short term:

· Increased uncertainty: While the market is eagerly awaiting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, any reverse “tightening” signals may be amplified.
· Impact on risk appetite: If the appeal of “risk-free” returns rises, some funds may be more cautious in chasing high-risk assets.

Observation and response
In the face of this situation, we can pay attention but should not overreact:

· Distinguish between primary and secondary: Compared to Japan, this week's decisions by the Federal Reserve and U.S. inflation data remain the core focus.
· Understand volatility: If the market experiences fluctuations because of this, it’s essential to recognize that the reasons may be at a more macro level.
· Stay flexible: During periods where multiple macro events intersect, maintaining flexible positions is never a bad thing.

The connections in the global market are becoming increasingly tight, and waves from afar may reach us as well. Keeping an eye on developments and maintaining a calm mindset might be the best response.

(This article is based on publicly available market information analysis and is for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Who will become the Chairman of the Federal Reserve? An open "drama" is about to come to an end.

Friends, regarding the candidate for the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, this ongoing "public campaign" that has lasted for months seems to be nearing its final answer.

Currently, all signs point to one person: Trump's long-time advisor and current White House economic chief—Kevin Hassett. Why him? Two key points: first, his "loyalty" to Trump is solid, and second, he has a certain "credibility" in the market. Last week, when the market spread the word that he was the top candidate, long-term interest rates fell in response, which was seen as the market voting with its feet, welcoming a chairman who might be more willing to "loosen" monetary policy.

What does this mean for us?

If Hassett ultimately takes office, it may not be as simple as just changing personnel; it could also mean a shift in the policy tone of the Federal Reserve in the coming years. A chairman who is generally considered more willing to cooperate with the White House and promote low interest rates will undoubtedly change the market's expectations for long-term liquidity. Of course, it is still too early to say these things; there are still processes for nomination and confirmation.

Here are some practical suggestions for everyone:

1. Watch the drama, but don't get too absorbed: Personnel changes can be dramatic, but what ultimately drives the market are the real inflation and employment data.
2. Focus on "tendencies" rather than "names": The key is not who takes office, but what kind of policy direction they might bring.
3. Fasten your seatbelt: Before and after such significant uncertainties are resolved, market sentiment can easily amplify, and volatility is inevitable; position management is more important than ever.

In short, this could be a significant event that affects the market environment in the coming years. Let's stay attentive, but keep a calm mindset, and wait for the dust to settle before making any conclusions.

(Source: Compiled from reports by authoritative media such as The Wall Street Journal, for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Tonight at 9 PM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak publicly. In the last few days before the December interest rate meeting, this statement may directly affect market nerves.

Why is this speech particularly critical?
Market expectations for a rate cut in December have already exceeded 80%, nearly forming a consensus. Therefore, rather than whether there will be a rate cut, what everyone is more concerned about is Powell's hints on "what comes next"—is it the beginning of an easing phase or a cautious approach of taking one step at a time?

Looking back at a few previous instances, his speeches have influenced the market in the following ways:

· An October statement that was somewhat "hawkish" triggered significant market fluctuations;
· While recent dovish signals have led to a short-term strengthening of risk assets.
Tonight, history is likely to repeat itself.

Two possible scenarios:

1. Release dovish signals: If he emphasizes economic risks and controllable inflation, it may further strengthen rate cut expectations, potentially "adding fuel to the fire" for market sentiment.
2. Release hawkish signals: If he reiterates inflation resilience and data dependence, it may "douse cold water" on market expectations, leading to increased volatility.

A few observations and suggestions:

· Listen to the tone, watch the wording: Besides "whether to cut or not," pay closer attention to his description of the "future path."
· Volatility is inevitable, be prepared: Markets can easily amplify emotions before and after major events, it is advisable to manage positions and remain flexible.
· This is just one link: After the speech, there will be several employment and inflation data releases this week, which together form the puzzle of Federal Reserve decision-making.

Tonight's speech can be seen as a "preview" for the December meeting. Stay attentive, but there's no need for excessive interpretation—ultimately, the true direction of the market must return to the economy itself.

(The above analysis is based on public information and market logic and is for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ #鲍威尔讲话 $BTC $ETH

December Federal Reserve Meeting Preview: Rate Cuts Possible, but Signals Matter More

Friends, Barclays Bank has just released a detailed forecast for the Federal Reserve's December meeting, highlighting several key points worth noting.

Barclays' Core Viewpoint
They expect that the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut rates by 25 basis points this month, but the key is in the subsequent guidance—Powell may release slightly 'hawkish' signals at the press conference, suggesting that a pause in rate cuts is likely in January unless the job market suddenly deteriorates significantly.

What Does This Mean? The market may not be anticipating just a rate cut, but a sustained cycle of rate cuts. If the Federal Reserve hints at a 'wait-and-see' approach, the market's enthusiasm could be dampened.

Potential Impact on Digital Assets

1. Expectations May Be Adjusted: Current market expectations for rate cuts are very high (over 80%); if the meeting results align with expectations but the guidance leans hawkish, there may be a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' shakeout.
2. Focus Will Shift: After the meeting, the market's focus will quickly shift from 'Will there be a rate cut in December?' to 'Will there be a pause in January?' and the overall interest rate path for next year.
3. Volatility May Increase: Given that there may be clear divisions within Barclays' forecast (possibly 2-3 dissenting votes), this divergence itself will make market sentiment more sensitive.

Observation Suggestions for Everyone
In the face of such a critical meeting:

· Manage Expectations: The rate cut itself may already be priced in by the market, so focus on Powell's statements regarding the 'future path.'
· Stay Patient: Market volatility may increase before and after the meeting; avoid making emotionally driven decisions at the moment news breaks.
· Think Long-Term: Ultimately, what drives the market will still be the fundamental trends of inflation and employment, rather than the outcome of a single meeting.

In conclusion, this meeting may not provide a simple 'easing' signal, but rather a more complex, data-dependent policy outlook. Staying calm, observing carefully, may be more important than predicting the outcome itself.

(This analysis is based on Barclays Bank research reports and CME market data, for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

The selection of the Federal Reserve Chair has drawn attention, and the market is reacting in advance.

Recently, discussions about the next Federal Reserve Chair have increased, with White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett being viewed as one of the leading candidates. The market believes that he shares a similar stance with Trump in supporting interest rate cuts, which may influence future policy direction.

Why it is worth noting
The Federal Reserve Chair directly affects interest rate decisions. If a candidate leaning towards easing is appointed, it may alter the current policy pace. The market has already reacted, for example, U.S. Treasury yields have declined.

Possible impact on digital assets
Personnel changes mainly indirectly influence the market through policy expectations:

1. If the policy leans towards easing, it may improve the overall liquidity environment.
2. Market sentiment during the transition period may be more sensitive, and volatility may increase.
3. Ultimately, it still depends on actual economic data and policy actions.

Observation suggestions
For such events, one can pay attention but should not overreact:

· Personnel confirmation still has a process and uncertainties exist.
· Continuously monitor core indicators like inflation and employment.
· Maintain a rational position and avoid decision-making based on a single clue.

The market will eventually return to fundamental pricing. Maintaining patience and observation amid changes is the current more prudent response.

(Based on publicly available information analysis, for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

"Christmas Rally" may be absent this year, and the market needs a new perspective

At this time of year, U.S. stocks typically begin to enter a stable upward "Christmas Rally." However, several analysts have recently pointed out that this year's market environment is different from the past, and "Santa Claus" may not arrive as expected.

Why is this year different?
Looking back over the year, the market has experienced too many unconventional events: from the tech stock fluctuations at the beginning of the year, the sudden tariff policies, to the ongoing anxiety over AI valuations. This has resulted in:

· Significant increase in market volatility
· Traditional seasonal patterns have largely failed
· Investors have become more cautious, increasing protection against downturns

The impact on digital assets is worth noting
Although this is an analysis of U.S. stocks, the logic is also worth our attention:

1. Volatility may spread: If U.S. stocks continue to fluctuate, the sentiment of global risk assets will also be affected
2. Focus on the Federal Reserve: The market's expectations for a rate cut in December have skyrocketed from 30% to about 87.4%, which will be crucial in affecting the prices of all assets
3. Liquidity expectations: If the rate cut happens, it may improve the overall funding environment of the market

Advice for ordinary investors
Facing a market that does not play by historical rules:

· Stay flexible, and don't overly rely on "seasonal patterns"
· Pay close attention to the actual decisions of the Federal Reserve in December
· Maintain rationality amid fluctuations, and avoid being swayed by short-term emotions

The market is changing, and our strategies should also keep pace. Staying observant and leaving room for flexibility may be more important than predicting whether "Santa Claus" will come. What do you think about the year-end market?
(Information compiled from Wall Street analyst reports and CME data, for reference only) #圣诞行情 $BTC $ETH

Market direction becomes clear: The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December rises to 87%

Latest data shows that the market's expectation probability for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 86.9%. What does this number mean? Simply put, the market almost certifies that a rate cut is imminent.

What does a rate cut mean for digital assets?

If the rate cut materializes, it means that the cost of capital in the market will decrease, and liquidity is expected to improve. Historically, such an environment usually has a positive impact on the digital asset market.

However, it is important to note that there is an old saying in the market: "Buy the expectation, sell the fact". Even if the rate cut is realized, one should be cautious of short-term volatility risks. During such times, it is especially important to remain rational:

· Avoid impulsive decisions based on a single piece of news
· Pay attention to the policy direction after the rate cut
· Reasonably control positions and leave some room

In summary:
The expectation of a rate cut has pointed the market in a direction, but the specific trend still needs to be observed with caution. Staying patient, doing your homework, may be wiser than chasing short-term volatility.

(This article is based on CME FedWatch data and publicly available market information analysis, for reference only)#美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Just now, the Federal Reserve sent an important signal! What do the new changes in the economy mean for the market?

The latest report from the Federal Reserve (the Beige Book) released today reveals several phenomena worth noting:

Economic divergence is clearly evident

· The wealthy are still buying, but ordinary households have begun to tighten their spending
· The job market has slightly cooled, but not severely
· Prices are still rising, but at a more moderate pace

What does this mean for us?

In simple terms, this report has "provided ammunition" to the Federal Reserve officials who support interest rate cuts. When signs of economic weakness appear, the Federal Reserve is more likely to consider stimulating the economy through rate cuts.

Potential impacts on the digital asset market:

1. In the short term, the market may become more sensitive, with every economic data point potentially triggering volatility
2. In the medium to long term, if the Federal Reserve indeed shifts towards easing, the market may welcome new liquidity support

Advice for ordinary investors:
In this period of uncertainty, maintaining patience may be the best strategy. Instead of chasing after gains and losses, consider:

· Closely monitor subsequent key data
· Manage positions well, leaving some room
· Stay calm, and do not let short-term fluctuations affect your judgment

The economy always cycles through periods; the important thing is to find your own rhythm amidst the changes. What do you think about the upcoming market direction?

(This information is sourced from the official Federal Reserve report and market analysis, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

The selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman draws attention, and the direction of policy affects market nerves

Recently, discussions about the next Federal Reserve Chairman have gradually intensified. Some analysts point out that Trump's former economic advisor, Hassett, may be one of the candidates. Due to his past support for interest rate cuts, this personnel change has sparked the market's close attention to the future direction of monetary policy.

Potential policy shifts are worth noting
If a candidate advocating for loose monetary policy is appointed as the Federal Reserve Chairman, it could change the current interest rate environment. Historical experience shows that loose monetary policy often affects global capital flows and may bring new liquidity expectations to the digital asset market.

Response strategies in market volatility
In the face of potential policy changes, market participants may consider the following directions:

· Pay attention to the subsequent developments of the Federal Reserve's personnel arrangements and policy signals
· Maintain a long-term perspective, avoiding excessive influence from short-term market sentiment
· Plan reasonably according to one's own risk tolerance and maintain calm judgment

Maintain observation and rationality
The evolution of monetary policy often takes time, and its effects will gradually become apparent in the long term. At the current stage, maintaining attention and rational analysis may be a prudent way to respond to market uncertainties.

(This article is based on publicly available political news and economic analysis, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice)#美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

Tonight, the market's attention is focused on the two upcoming economic data releases from the United States - initial jobless claims and durable goods orders. These data points have always been catalysts for market volatility, and tonight's performance is worth close attention.

Why are these data important?
In simple terms, if the data falls short of expectations, it may reinforce the market's anticipation of an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Historical experience shows that such expectations often drive funds towards risk assets like digital assets. After similar data was released last month, the market experienced noticeable volatility, which has made investors particularly attentive to tonight's data.

Current market environment
Recently, discussions about the Federal Reserve's policy direction have been increasing. Some analysts believe that future personnel appointments at the Federal Reserve may lean more towards candidates supportive of interest rate cuts, providing the market with more imaginative space regarding monetary policy direction.

Notable details
Now, the linkage between traditional financial markets and digital asset markets is becoming increasingly tight. One piece of data or one piece of news can trigger a chain reaction across different markets. Therefore, while focusing on short-term data volatility, it is also essential to understand it within a broader policy context.

How will the market react after tonight's data release? Let's wait and see.
(This information is sourced from official channels such as the U.S. Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce, as well as public market analyses, for reference only and does not constitute investment advice)#美联储何时降息？