浩永说趋势

Friends who just entered the circle must be feeling restless lately: positions are glowing green, the K-line is heading downwards, and U.S. stocks are also weakening in sync. Is the crypto market about to repeat the 'black swan'? As an analyst who has been deeply involved in the industry for 8 years, let me directly point out the key issue: this wave of decline is not due to problems with the project's fundamentals, but rather a liquidity crisis triggered by the U.S. government's 'shutdown'. The rush to cut losses is the real pitfall!
Many people only see the market decline but do not understand the underlying funding logic: The two parties in the U.S. are deadlocked, and the government has been shut down for 37 days, tying the historical record. In the absence of funds, the Treasury can only 'siphon' from the market to save itself, having drawn nearly $700 billion over the past two months. It's like a large portion of the market's funding pool has suddenly been drained, with banks' available funds sharply reduced, leading to a direct depletion of liquidity in the entire market — the Federal Reserve's bank reserves have fallen to the lowest level since 2021, indicating a severe tightening of funds.

Last week, a friend came to me with just 4200 in starting capital, looking worried and said, 'If I lose more, I'll have to delete the software.' I didn't draw K-lines or explain MACD to him; I just threw out three 'iron rules for cursing.' As a result, more than a month later, he sent me a screenshot—his account shot up to 68,000. To be honest, after 8 years in the crypto market, I've seen too many people who understand the technology but end up crying over their losses. I finally realized that those who truly make money are not relying on complicated formulas, but rather those who can manage their own 'human weaknesses.' Today, I’ll break down these three 'reverse' money-making logics for you. Understanding them and implementing them is more effective than staring at the market for 12 hours.

I've seen too many "night owl players" in the crypto market: staring at charts at 3 AM, responding to community messages in seconds, familiar with white papers more than textbooks, yet their account curves plunge smoother than a roller coaster—going down all the way, without even a ripple of a rebound.
I almost became one of these "tragic characters" back in the day. On the day of my sixth consecutive liquidation, there were less than 10 USDT left in my account. Staring at the "liquidation notice" on the screen, my hands trembled so much that I couldn't even hold a cigarette. I felt like the market had sucked out all my energy. Until a retired old player threw me a line: "Stop staring at the K-line, focus on the information gap," along with a very simple operating guide. With a mindset of "treating a dead horse as a live horse," I followed it, turning a 3000 USDT principal into over 200,000 in less than 90 days.

I've seen too many players in the crypto circle stare at candlestick charts until they're out of this world, their message groups heating up their phones, only to end up with their capital reduced to 'taxi money'—while I relied on a 'foolish' approach that made my peers laugh, rolling from 3,000 crypto asset units to 24,000, achieving an eightfold increase.
You might find it unbelievable: I don't look at MACD, I don't chase 'big shots' insider information, and I can't even be bothered to click on new coin launch meetings. But this set of 'anti-smart' operations is ten times more reliable than those 'buy high and sell low' tricks.
My three 'fool's iron rules', each one contradicts human nature

Have you ever experienced such a magical moment? The market moves according to your script, and the K-line's ups and downs all match your predictions. But when you open your account – the balance looks like a horror movie, glaringly red?
Don't blame your bad luck, and don't resent the main players targeting you. This is not the fault of 'betting on the wrong direction'; it's because you haven't seen through the 'invisible harvesting rules' of the contract market. As a veteran in crypto for 5 years, the mistakes I made back then still make me laugh at myself, slapping my thigh in hindsight.
A few years ago, when ETH was still hovering around 2000, I reviewed the market for half a month, convinced that a bull market was coming. My eyes were bloodshot, and I pooled all my savings to go long. Those days, the market seemed to have a GPS, shooting straight up. When my unrealized profits jumped from 1500 to 5000, I even started planning what computer to buy with the money I made – but the next second, a sudden drop pierced through my stop-loss line, and my position was 'snapped' liquidated. By the time I refreshed the page, the market slowly rebounded, leaving me staring blankly at a screen full of liquidation notices, just like a fool being rubbed against the ground.

Family, who understands this! The phone notification at 2 AM directly blew me awake from my dream— the Federal Reserve actually broke a forty-year-old rule and held a 'lightning monetary policy meeting,' making a major decision in just one hour! This move has collectively 'refreshed' the global market, with cryptocurrency players eagerly waiting for dawn while clutching their phones, as such 'crisis-level' actions are never trivial!
First, let me point out four 'strange' signals hidden in this operation; understanding these is key to knowing where the market is headed:
The interest rate cut divergence is about to 'break out': there are now two factions internally, one calling for a 50 basis point cut to stabilize the market, while the other wants to go straight to 75 basis points. Such a degree of divergence has been rare in recent years. Market bets are in a chaotic state, with both bulls and bears ready to pounce, and volatility is at its peak.

刚进圈的兄弟是不是都有这通病？揣着几百 U 就想梭哈百倍币，开着高倍杠杆硬扛回调，结果没三天就被市场教做人 —— 本金归零的速度比你刷暴富神话的速度还快！
作为在圈里摸爬滚打 8 年、带过 300 + 新手避坑的分析师，今天掏心窝子分享一套亲测有效的「100U 纪律养成法」：重点不是让你短期翻倍，而是用最小成本练出能活过牛熊的交易习惯，等你把这套玩法玩明白，后续赚大钱只是时间问题！
先划核心：100U 不是用来赌的，是用来 "交学费" 的（但这学费只交一次）
新手最蠢的操作就是把本金当筹码，抱着 "赢了会所嫩模，输了进厂打螺丝" 的心态交易。我一直跟我的粉丝说：币圈赚钱的前提是 "活着"，而活着的关键是纪律。这套 100U 玩法的本质，就是用最小代价培养你的 "交易肌肉记忆"。
具体怎么玩？听我拆解（都是实战干货，记不住的建议收藏）：
本金拆分：100U 分成两等份，每份 50U—— 永远别把鸡蛋放一个篮子里，这是我见过无数人爆仓后总结的铁律。标的选择：只选 ETH 这类主流资产！别去碰那些连白皮书都看不懂的小币种，波动乱跳容易被插针，主流资产的趋势更稳，适合新手练手。仓位规则：用 50U 开单，高倍模式下控制仓位大小（别贪多，1 个标准仓就够），重点是这两个硬性指标：止损线 20%：只要这单亏到 40U，立刻离场！别抱着 "再等等就能反弹" 的幻想，我见过太多新手因为硬扛，把 50U 亏到只剩几块钱。止盈线 100%：赚到 100U 就收手！哪怕后面再涨 10 倍，也跟你没关系 —— 新手最容易死在 "贪心" 上，见好就收才能积少成多。进阶节奏：连赢 3 次：100U→200U→400U→800U，每次都只用一半资金操作，别因为赚了钱就扩大仓位。到 800U 后：每次只用 100U 开单，留足 8 次试错机会 —— 市场永远不缺机会，缺的是能扛住亏损的本金。1000U 前必守：全程用独立仓位模式！每次开单的风险单独计算，就算这单亏了，也不会影响其他本金，相当于给你的钱上了保险。
4 条铁律刻进 DNA 里，不然 100U 也能亏完！
方向错了就认栽：亏 20% 果断砍仓，别跟市场较劲 —— 你以为的反弹，可能是更深的回调，及时止损才能保住下次再战的资本。梭哈 = 自杀：永远留一半资金备用！就算你再看好一个方向，也不能把所有钱都投进去，币圈黑天鹅太多，留有余地才能从容应对。赚够就跑不回头：止盈 100% 就离场，别因为 "少赚了" 而后悔 —— 记住，落袋为安的才是你的钱，没到手的都是市场画的饼。独立仓位是底线：新手千万别用全仓模式！独立仓位能让你在单票亏损时，不影响整体本金，这是我带新手活下来的核心秘诀。
最后说句掏心窝的话：
币圈不缺暴富神话，缺的是能活着熬到牛市的人。我见过太多新手拿着几千 U，因为没纪律、爱贪心，短短一个月就亏得干干净净；也见过有人用 100U，靠着这套玩法慢慢滚到几万 U，在牛市里赚得盆满钵满。
新手期的核心不是赚多少钱，而是练出 "不贪、不扛、会分仓" 的交易习惯。100U 不多，就算亏了也不心疼，但如果能靠这 100U 摸清市场的脾气，养成铁打的纪律，后续遇到真正的机会，你才能稳稳接住。
记住：币圈赚钱的逻辑从来不是 "赌一次大的"，而是 "积小胜为大胜"。跟着这套方法练 3 个月，你会发现自己比那些天天追涨杀跌的人清醒多了。
关注我，后续分享更多实战干货，从仓位管理到趋势判断，从风险控制到心态修炼，带你避开新手 99% 的坑，慢慢把 U 变多～ 毕竟在币圈，活着，才能等到吃肉的那天！
#美SEC推动加密创新监管 $ETH

$BTC

Brothers, have you been staring at the K-line for 365 days, only to find your wallet cleaner than your face? Have you even started to doubt whether you are born to be a 'victim'? Don't rush to smash the keyboard and uninstall the app—I've been in this crypto market for 8 years, from losing to questioning life, and now I can steadily profit. Today, I'm sharing 10 practical insights that I've learned the hard way, each one a lesson bought with real money. Understanding them can save you at least 3 years of detours!
1. With small funds, don't be greedy; it's enough to grasp one wave of market trends in a year. If you have less than 200,000 in hand, don't always think about chasing the hotspots every day. I've seen too many people break their principal into seven or eight parts, and in the end, none of them made a profit, and they were left stripped of fees. Remember, this market is not short of opportunities; what it lacks is the determination to wait for opportunities. Keep at least 30% of your cash as 'emergency funds', and when you encounter a real main upward trend, strike hard; it's 10 times more reliable than 'grinding' in the market every day.

Family, who understands! Last night I flipped through the backend messages and found that 80% of new friends are asking, 'Why does it drop when I buy and rise when I sell?' — Don't doubt it, it's not bad luck; you just haven't understood what the big players are 'writing small essays' about on the K-line!
After four years of crawling through the crypto market, the pits I've stepped in could circle the exchanges three times. My deepest realization is: the K-line is not a rise-and-fall calculator, but the 'emotional manipulation script' of the big players. Want to accurately predict trends based on technical indicators? You might as well guess the opening price of a meme coin. But as long as you grasp these few pieces of 'big player jargon,' at least you can dodge to safety when the scythe swings down!

The phone screen at three in the morning is whiter than my face, and that string of "1200.36" in my account feels like an ice pick stabbing my eyes—three months ago, with $20,000 in capital, I jumped into the crypto scene, dreaming of switching cars by the end of the year. Now, I have to budget even for a hot pot meal. My finger hovered over the uninstall button for three minutes, and finally, I gulped down a mouthful of ice-cold cola: rather than being a coward, I might as well treat this $1200 as tuition, I have to understand this even if it kills me.
Looking back now, that night's "almost getting knocked out" turned out to be the most valuable turning point. I printed out all my operation records and plastered them on the wall, like a detective investigating a case, picking through every detail. From chasing high-priced altcoins to going all in and getting liquidated on contracts, behind every loss was hidden a foolish assumption. When I distilled these painful lessons into 7 iron rules engraved in my mind, a miraculous thing happened: in half a year, that $1200 actually snowballed into $280,000.

The trading software alert at three in the morning was more suffocating than my boss's overtime notice—"Your position has triggered a forced liquidation." I must have read this line no less than twenty times back then, going from an 8000 yuan principal to just 37.5 yuan, enough for a cup of milk tea but not enough to pay for a taxi home. That was when I understood: contracts are not a "springboard to success" for ordinary people, but a "capital harvesting machine" wrapped in sugar coating.
Not long ago, while browsing the market, a certain popular cryptocurrency contract K-line showed a 14% increase, and the comment section was filled with excitement over "doubling the investment." I felt a bit nervous for them from behind the screen—I used to think the same way, entering the market with a few thousand yuan, my head filled with thoughts of "winning means getting a new phone, losing means working harder." What happened? Before I could double my money, I was crushed by the market in three days, and my account balance was cleaner than my face.

After focusing on the 1-hour chart —— rebounding from the panic low of 2903, ETH is currently at 3138.90. The short-term moving averages (MA7/MA30) have formed a bullish arrangement, with the price firmly above MA7. The BOLL midline at 3116.19 is strong support; although the KDJ's J line has retreated to 39.89, seemingly indicating a pullback pressure, on-chain data has already revealed the main players' intentions: in the past 24 hours, over 23,000 ETH has net flowed out of exchanges (the largest single-day outflow in nearly a week), and whale addresses (holding ≥1000 ETH) have simultaneously increased their holdings by 18,000 ETH, raising the holding concentration to 62% (a new high in nearly a month). This is not a sell-off; it is clearly the main players accumulating during the pullback.

You might not believe it, but last week I watched a fan turn 'smoking and worrying' into 'airfare and hotel worries'—the night before, he was still complaining to me about losing tens of thousands due to stop-loss, and today he directly posted on his social media saying, 'The world is so big, I want to take a look first.' It wasn't that he suddenly won the lottery, but he caught a wave of 120% market movement, and with 5x leverage, he turned his losses into a 'resignation fund.'
This matter is particularly interesting to talk about. The other night, while I was monitoring the market, I discovered that a small-cap stock (let's call it X) had an abnormal trading volume, and the candlestick chart looked like it was hiding a 'timed surprise.' I quickly told him to place a long position around 0.025, but this brother complained that the price was rising too slowly after watching for a while. He privately messaged me saying, 'How about switching to a short position? That M stock seems to be falling quite well.' I directly replied, 'You're trying to touch a bomb inside the surprise'—the concentration of chips in that M stock is ridiculous, and the big player can control the market with their little toe; entering means becoming 'vegetable hero.'

Retail investors staring at the ETH 1-hour chart should have just canceled their stop-loss orders! That sharp drop to 2903 was not a sell-off — on-chain data and market signals had already exposed the main force’s cards. Following the rhythm to enter the market tonight, there is a high probability of being able to bite into the fat meat.
First, let's break down the market: In the 1-hour chart, the price smashed through the short-term moving average and then quickly pulled back above MA7 (3143). This market is simply not something retail investors can control — during the sharp decline, there was a net outflow from the exchange of 12,000 ETH (the latest on-chain data showing whale purchases), and the rebound volume doubled, clearly indicating the old trick of 'squeezing retail investors and accumulating chips at low levels.' Now looking at the indicators: the BOLL band has fallen from the upper track and has broken through the top again, signaling the end of the consolidation and the start of a main upward trend; KDJ touching 80 is not a peak, combined with the volume, it indicates 'capital entering the market in an overbought condition' — the main force wants to push up, regardless of short-term indicators being overbought.

Family, who understands! Every day opening the market software feels like unboxing a mystery box, going long results in a drop, going short results in a rise, and the money in the contract account is retreating faster than my hairline?
I have seen too many friends rush into the crypto market with the mindset of "making quick money", ending up treating their principal as tuition fees, daring to go all in without even understanding the K-line chart, and ultimately just staring blankly at the "liquidation notice".
I am Old Chen, I have been struggling in the crypto market for 7 years, from initially investing 30,000 as a trial to now having a steadily growing account, relying not on a "superpower" to guess ups and downs, but on 3 "foolproof methods" summarized after being beaten by the market — today I'm pulling out the hidden gems; friends who understand can at least avoid losing five figures!

Don't be brainwashed by the idea that 'high leverage = guaranteed liquidation'! As an old hand in the crypto circle with 8 years of experience, I can confidently say: what really wipes out accounts is not leverage, but the 'reckless' who treat leverage like a gambling tool.
Last month, when ETH surged from 2800 to 3000, spot traders were pleased with their 7% gains, while my brothers in the community using 5x leverage strictly followed stop-loss and take-profit strategies, directly pulling their profits up to 35%—this isn't just luck, it's the 'mathematical magic' of leverage. The crypto market itself is more volatile than the stock market, and using leverage reasonably amplifies the 'cognitive dividend', but the problem is that 90% of people have turned it into 'gambling all in on the table'.

Brothers, I've seen too many friends entering the market with just a thousand U—holding onto that money as tightly as a hand warmer in winter, staring at the screen as if they could spot a shooting star, both hoping for a 'bike to become a motorcycle' while fearing that the next moment a 'motorcycle turns into scrap metal.' As a veteran who has been in the crypto circle for 7 years, let me share a harsh truth today: with this little capital, you won't find the answer in the candlestick charts; the real secret is that set of 'survival principles' that allows you to sleep soundly.
First move: learn to 'submit to your capital' and lock away the dream of sudden wealth in a drawer.
Newcomers always love to dream of 'a hundred times return,' staring at those skyrocketing small coins in the trading software, thinking 'I will definitely catch the next hundredfold coin.' Wake up! A thousand U in this market isn't even considered a 'small ripple'; betting on those unfounded coins isn't investing, it's 'throwing away your head.' As small retail investors, what we can't afford to lose the most is our capital, so the first step must be to pull down expectations hard:

Every day I get asked a lot: 'Brother K, if you have 1,000,000 in the crypto circle, can you just convert it to stablecoins and eat interest steadily?'
Every time I can't help but roll my eyes: This wave has turned large funds into 'demand deposits'!
I'm really not trying to pour cold water, I've seen too many people after making their first pot of gold, just throw their funds into the 'lying flat pool', and as a result, they watch others take advantage of opportunities while they can only nibble on steamed buns with an annualized interest of 8%—it's not that the market has no opportunities, it's that your funds have long been trained into 'lazy funds' that can't seize opportunities!

I've seen too many 'genius players' in the cryptocurrency market: staying up all night staring at candlestick charts, calculating contract leverage down to two decimal places, only to look at their accounts at the end of the month and realize—two-thirds of their principal is gone, yet they stubbornly claim it's just a temporary pullback. In contrast, over the past decade, I haven't relied on any 'insider information.' With a set of methods that people laugh at for being 'too rigid,' I've grown from 100,000 to my current market value. Even when I helped a brother who lost over 600,000 get back on track six months ago, I still used these same old rules.
To be honest, the cryptocurrency market has never been a playground for 'smart people'; instead, it's an ATM for those who can control their impulses and be patient. Today, I'm sharing 4 practical strategies that I've kept under wraps. If you understand and follow them, you can at least avoid 80% of the pitfalls.

At two in the morning, I couldn't sleep no matter how much I turned over — it wasn't a headache from drinking too much, but rather a realization triggered by something an industry veteran said.
Last night, we had a gathering of 'old friends,' all of whom have been tough characters in the crypto space for over 8 years. After a few drinks, we talked about the recently discussed 'new trading protocol for leading platforms,' and I quickly blurted out, 'Isn't this just internal resource repositioning?' Just as I finished speaking, a senior sitting next to me tapped his glass: 'Kid, you’re only seeing the pieces on the board, but you’re not seeing them building a new board.'
His words punctured the bubble of my habitual thinking like a needle. The senior didn't directly discuss the technology but instead shared an old internet story: 'Back when Taobao was about to monopolize C2C, why did Jack Ma insist on creating Alipay under pressure? At that time, many people said, ‘What does payment have to do with e-commerce?’ And what happened? Alipay wasn’t just a simple ‘payment tool’; it solidified the trust chain between buyers and sellers, forming the ‘water, electricity, and gas’ of the future Alibaba ecosystem.'