狂人叨逼叨

At the macro level, according to CME's "FedWatch Tool", the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with a probability as high as 89%, while the expectation of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is only 11%. Looking ahead to January next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 64.8%, and the probability of further cutting rates by 50 basis points also reaches 27.6%. The warming expectations for easing have provided some emotional support for overall risk assets.
In terms of regulatory progress, U.S. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins revealed in a live interview with Fox News that the Bitcoin Market Structure Bill is nearing passage, which means that the regulatory framework surrounding crypto assets will gradually become clearer, potentially paving the way for subsequent capital inflows.

At the macro level, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 89.2%, while the likelihood of maintaining the status quo is only 10.8%. Looking ahead to January next year, the market estimates the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to be 66.6%, while the probability of a further 50 basis point cut rises to 25.7%, indicating that easing expectations are strengthening again.
Against the backdrop of continuously adjusting macro expectations, crypto assets continue to attract institutional attention. The latest data from 8market shows that Bitcoin's market capitalization has risen to $1.829 trillion, successfully surpassing Broadcom and ranking as the 8th largest asset globally, reflecting its increasing significance as a global asset.

On the macro level, according to the CME 'Fed Watch' tool, market expectations for U.S. monetary policy have seen a clear shift again. Currently, investors generally believe that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has risen to 87.6%, with only a 12.4% chance of maintaining the status quo. Looking ahead to January next year, market bets on cumulative rate cuts remain dominant: 69.3% expect a 25 basis point cut, 21.3% believe there will be a 50 basis point cut, and the probability of no change is only 9.3%.
On the institutional side, the Global Research Department of Bank of America updated its policy path judgment, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut to be implemented in December 2025, which stands in stark contrast to the previous prediction of 'no rate cuts.'

Yesterday morning, the rapid drop in Bitcoin briefly disrupted the originally stabilizing rebound rhythm, causing market sentiment to become tense again. However, from the on-chain data updated this morning, the overall level of panic has not further deteriorated and instead shows signs of some easing.
Taking EARL (Entity Adjusted Realized Loss) as an example, approximately 820 million dollars was recorded on December 1, significantly down from the peak of 2.34 billion dollars on November 21. This indicates that although prices are declining, the market's forced selling intensity has not returned to the extreme levels seen earlier.

The latest published CBD (Cost Basis Distribution) heatmap presents a comprehensive view of the recent flow of Bitcoin chips. It is evident that the current concentration of market chips is mainly distributed in the $94,000–$98,000 range and between $101,000–$118,000. These two segments of concentrated chips not only represent potential resistance that may be faced during future price rebounds but also reflect the consensus forming around the holding costs of investors in these areas.
Among them, $98,000 is regarded as the historical fair price of Bitcoin, while $104,000 corresponds to the average cost of recent entry capital. Whether it rises or falls, these two price levels have historically been key turning points for bullish and bearish sentiment. Whether the market can break through or hold these levels will largely determine how the trend evolves.

On November 21, Bitcoin plunged to a low of $80,600, and on-chain realized losses hit a historical record, with investors generally in extreme panic. Just as the market was overwhelmingly bearish and it was widely believed that $80,000 would be hard to maintain, an unexpected phenomenon suddenly appeared — some large whales began to rapidly increase their holdings at low levels.
Who will buy in the market's most pessimistic moment? The data gives the answer: it is a super whale holding more than 10,000 BTC that is actively accumulating. For many, this was almost unbelievable at the time, but the story revealed by on-chain data is far from over.

On a macro level, according to the CME's 'FedWatch' tool data, the market has reached a relatively unified judgment on the monetary policy direction for December: the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month has risen to 84.9%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate level is only 15.1%. Looking ahead to January 2026, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 66.4%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 11.1%, and the expectation of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points has reached 22.6%. This indicates that the market still holds a considerable degree of confidence in policy easing over the next two months.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the selection process for the Federal Reserve Chairman position has entered the final round of interviews, with five candidates reaching the final stage. According to the current schedule, President Trump may announce the final candidate before Christmas. This news adds extra uncertainty to the market.

Recent on-chain and derivatives data shows that Bitcoin regaining the $90,000 level cannot be considered a true challenge. In other words, the $90,000 line is not the main pressure point determining the trend.
First, from the cost structure of short-term holders, the average holding cost for less than 1 month is about $92,000, and for less than 3 months, it is about $99,000. This means that Bitcoin will only start to gradually unlock short-term trapped funds when it enters the $92,000–$99,000 range, which will lead to relatively significant selling pressure. This area is the price range where short-term funds are more sensitive.

At the macro level, as we enter late November, the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook is becoming increasingly clear. According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 69.4%, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged has clearly decreased. Looking ahead to January next year, the market not only expects the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to exceed 56%, but there is also a 22.3% willingness to bet on a larger cut of 50 basis points. Overall, the market atmosphere is leaning towards a more accommodative stance.
On the U.S. side, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Schenker mentioned in a recent interview that the 43-day government shutdown has resulted in an estimated permanent loss of about $11 billion to the economy. However, he maintains a positive outlook on the growth momentum for the coming year. He believes that although some industries that are highly sensitive to interest rates have begun to show signs of recession, the overall economy is not facing the risk of negative growth. Regarding inflation trends, he pointed out that price pressures in the service sector are more concerning, and he expects that the continued decline in energy prices will further ease the overall price level.

With the organized URPD data, we can more intuitively see the real flow of chips during this round of decline. Comparing the on-chain distribution from November 19 to November 21, there is a rather surprising finding: whether it is long-term profit chips or high-position locked chips, this time they are not the main source of selling pressure.
Specifically, the cost range of chips located between $1,200 and $82,000 only sold 19,315 units; while the locked chips above $110,000 only sold 16,224 units. In other words, the real pressure does not come from old chips, but rather from short-term new funds invested.

With the recent drastic fluctuations in the bitcoin market, especially the sharp decline yesterday, some large investors on the blockchain—known as 'whales'—have stepped in again, actively increasing their bitcoin holdings. These whales do not refer to a single wallet address but are aggregated into a single entity through Glassnode's analysis of a group of associated wallets. From the data, this increase in whale holdings is clearly larger in scale than the previous few days' accumulation.
According to data analysis, from November 4th to November 20th, the group holding fewer bitcoins—especially wallet addresses holding between 10 to 100 BTC—significantly reduced their holdings by approximately 24,911 BTC, demonstrating these smaller-scale investors' caution and risk control awareness towards the market.

At the macro level, discussions around the Federal Reserve's policies have recently intensified. The latest data from CME's 'FedWatch' shows that the market's attitude towards a rate cut in December has become increasingly cautious. Currently, investors are giving a probability of about 39.6% for a 25 basis point cut, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged has slightly increased to 60.4%. If we extend the timeline to January next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is slightly higher at 50.2%, but nearly 30% still expect no change in rates.
Although the released economic data has stimulated rate cut bets in the short term, the signals from the interest rate swap market remain conservative: a rate cut in December is not the baseline scenario.

In the indicators on the necklace that measures market sentiment, PSIP (Profit Supply Percentage) has always been regarded as an important benchmark for observing investor optimism and panic. We previously mentioned that when the 7-day moving average of PSIP falls below 70%, it often means the market has completed the initial pressure of the bear phase following the bull phase and may welcome a technical rebound after a passive release of sentiment.
However, from recent discussions, it seems that investors are no longer focusing on short-term rebounds but rather concentrating on a more critical question: If PSIP falls below the 50% deep bear threshold, where will the Bitcoin price approximately be? This is also the most attractive layout phase in the history of major cycles.

At the macro level, the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's interest rates has changed again. CME data shows that the likelihood of a rate cut in December has significantly cooled, while expectations for maintaining rates have rapidly increased. By January next year, the cumulative expectations for rate cuts are also showing a noticeable slowdown. This change is directly related to the latest minutes released by the Federal Reserve.
The minutes reveal that the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate cut decision are more pronounced than the outside world imagines. Officials supporting the rate cut believe that the signs of economic slowdown are already sufficiently obvious, necessitating policy adjustments to provide a buffer, while opponents worry that the difficulty of controlling inflation is increasing and that prolonged easing could reverse previous gains. The minutes even mention that if there is a sharp valuation adjustment in AI-related assets, it could trigger disorderly fluctuations in the stock market.

At the macro level, the uncertainty in the macro environment continues to ferment. CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" shows that the market still finds it difficult to reach a consensus on whether to cut interest rates in December: the probability of a 25bps cut is 48.9%, while maintaining the status quo is 51.1%. Looking further ahead to January 2025, investors' expectations for a cumulative cut of 25bps have reached 49.7%, with about 30% believing it will remain unchanged, and 18.4% betting on a more significant rate cut. Federal Reserve official Barkin also stated that it is still impossible to confirm whether December is suitable for a rate cut, consistent with Powell's previous cautious stance.

In Bitcoin's long-term valuation system, the MVRV extreme deviation range is widely used to assess price support and resistance levels at different stages. It uses statistical distribution to characterize the price trajectory within the trend channel, seemingly pure mathematics, yet presenting quite a 'coincidental' structural feature in each cycle.
Progressive changes in three trend segments
Looking back at this cycle, Bitcoin has formed three clear major trends, each with a highly consistent 'displacement pattern':
First trend segment: price peaks touching the purple line (+3 standard deviations); then dipping to the green line (−1 standard deviation); the total displacement is 5 intervals.

On a macro level, the latest CME 'FedWatch' data shows that the market remains significantly divided on the policy direction for December. The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is less than half, with a slightly higher probability of maintaining the current stance. As we enter early next year, bets on a 25 basis point rate cut have risen to 48.2%, but there are also voices advocating for keeping rates unchanged or further cutting by 50 basis points, reflecting investors' continued lack of stable expectations for the economic outlook.
In policy discussions, Federal Reserve Governor Waller's attitude is particularly critical. He has clearly stated that the weakness in the labor market has persisted for several months, and the current data showing improvement is insufficient to change his support for another rate cut in December. Waller believes that excessively tight monetary policy puts pressure on the economy, especially on low- to middle-income groups, so a moderate reduction in rates under controllable inflation conditions can help stabilize employment and serves as a preventive management of risks.

On a macro level, the latest CME 'FedWatch' data shows that the market's bets on a rate cut in December have significantly cooled, with only 44.4% believing there will be a 25 basis point cut, while 55.6% expect the Fed to take no action for now. Looking ahead to January next year, the pace of rate cuts remains mild: the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 48.6%, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is only 16.7%.
Meanwhile, the market attributes of Bitcoin are undergoing intriguing changes. The Kobeissi Letter points out that the correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks is rising — its 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has reached as high as 0.80, setting a new record since 2022. From a broader perspective, the correlation over the past five years has further risen to 0.54, while its relationship with cash and gold is nearly zero. This trend also means that Bitcoin's trading style is increasingly resembling that of 'high-leverage tech assets.'

From the overall chip distribution observation, the Bitcoin price is still operating within the key chip accumulation range of $92,000-$117,000 (Range B). The upper limit at $112,000 remains the area with the highest concentration of high-position trapped chips, which has only decreased by 11,000 Bitcoin in the past week. It has remained stable under recent downward pressure, indicating that this portion is held by long-term funds and is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.
In contrast, the chip changes around $100,000 are more representative: a decrease of 102,000 BTC from last week, leaving approximately 363,000 currently, indicating that this is the main source of short-term selling pressure. The current price, close to $96,000, has seen an increase of 160,000 chips from last week, primarily migrating down from the $100,000 range.

Recently, the price of Bitcoin fell below the fair price range we previously mentioned—$98,000. This trend reflects the market's disregard for value return and a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment. From the current market performance, risk-averse sentiment is gradually dominating, investor confidence is noticeably lacking, and panic emotions are rapidly spreading.
The continuous selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH)
The behavior of long-term holders, especially against the backdrop of the current market downturn, has further intensified the pressure on the market. Data shows that the selling scale of LTH is continuously expanding, which exacerbates the downward pressure on the market, leading to price declines. According to chart data, the persistent reduction trend of LTH has become the dominant force in the current market.