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12.9周二大饼午间

大饼隔夜下探89600后反弹，早间在91300遇阻回落，整体维持区间震荡格局。日线二连阳但缺乏延续性，四小时级别承压均线下方，反弹触轨道上轨即折返，多头动能衰减，技术形态走弱，1小时级别多空围绕9万关口激烈博弈，无明确单边方向，高空思路占优。

交易策略

90800-91600附近空，止损92000上方，目标下看89300，破位持有至88300。$BTC #BTC

12.9 Tuesday Concubine Afternoon

The concubine rebounds around 3140-3190, looking down to 3050-2950#ETH走势分析 $ETH

Why doesn't our country loosen restrictions on cryptocurrency? This is the truth.

Many people have a question in their minds: seeing cryptocurrency being hotly traded overseas, why does our country insist on restrictions? In fact, this is not about 'rejecting innovation', but rather a genuine protection of people's livelihoods and financial security.

First, let's clarify a misconception: the world is not 'rushing to support' cryptocurrency. While Western countries seem to loosen restrictions, they are actually bound by layers of regulatory shackles — trading platforms require licenses, large transfers must be traced, and retail investors face thresholds; more countries classify it as a high-risk asset or outright ban on-site trading, with only a handful of countries truly allowing it to run free.

Our country chooses to impose restrictions, primarily to mitigate three major risk points. First, cryptocurrency lacks a tangible value anchor, its price relies entirely on capital speculation, with fluctuations akin to a roller coaster. Ordinary people following the trend can easily become 'chives' being harvested, with cases of overnight liquidation being commonplace. Second, its anonymity and decentralized attributes have created a 'grey channel' for money laundering and cross-border illegal capital flows, making regulation extremely difficult and easily fostering financial crime. Third, cryptocurrency trading is detached from the sovereign currency system. If it develops chaotically, it could undermine the status of fiat currency and disrupt financial stability.

In contrast, traditional assets like gold have been visible and tangible hard currencies for thousands of years, with stable returns and controllable risks. There's no need to stay up late watching the market or fear liquidation; it is truly a suitable investment choice for ordinary people. The country's restrictions on cryptocurrency are not about preventing everyone from making money, but about not letting everyone gamble their fortunes on the edge of a knife. #现货黄金 #比特币

Did the U.S. and NATO break down?
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio was rarely absent from the NATO foreign ministers' meeting held on December 3 at local time. Randol, who attended on his behalf, was the first to speak at the closed-door meeting, demanding that countries should not use policy measures to 'squeeze' U.S. defense contractors out of the European market.
He then immediately left to attend other meetings.
This also surprised the attendees, as they did not expect the U.S. to so openly make demands, hoping they would increase defense spending and enhance procurement of U.S. weapons and equipment. His direct departure further exacerbated the internal conflicts within NATO.
Deputy Secretary of State Randol's remarks at the meeting also sparked significant controversy, reflecting that the U.S. tolerance toward the organization has reached its limit.
If Europe does not make corresponding adjustments, the U.S. may reduce its interactions with Europe, and NATO will become a mere shell of its former self.

12.9 Tuesday Crude Oil Morning Thoughts

Current crude oil price is 58.620, showing characteristics of a short-term rebound after hitting a low of 58.540 and quickly recovering, reclaiming the positions of the 5 and 10-period moving averages, forming a stable K-line pattern at a low point. The support zone of 58.540-58.577 has been validated, and the bulls are welcomed with a short-term counterattack window.

Current Price Operation Suggestions

At the current price of 58.620, directly take a light position to go long, with a stop loss at 58.50, and initially target 58.700. After breaking through, aim for the 58.80-58.90 range. #原油

12.9 Tuesday Silver Morning Trend

Current silver price is 58.113, and the short-term trend shows a strong pattern of rebound after hitting a low of 57.875. The price quickly rebounded and stabilized above the 5, 10, and 20-period moving averages, with the moving average system turning upwards to form a bullish arrangement. The signal for stabilization at a low level is clear, and the support range of 57.875-57.945 has been validated effectively, with bullish momentum gradually being released.

Operation Suggestion

Go long around 58.00-58.10, with a stop loss at 57.95, and initially target 58.115. After breaking through, look for resistance at 58.117-58.120. #白银

12.9 Tuesday Morning ETH Analysis

ETH's false breakdown has resulted in a exhaustion of rebound momentum, with a clear short-term adjustment trend. After rebounding from the low of 3066, the price at the 4-hour level failed to break through the previous high of 3179.99, consecutively closing with a series of high then low candlesticks, with significant pressure from the upper Bollinger band; after the false breakdown, bullish follow-up is weak, and the solidity of the 3100 support is questionable, making it likely that the pullback will continue.

Operational Suggestions

Short Position Layout: Lightly short in the 3150-3180 range, with a stop loss above 3200, aiming successively for 3050, 3000$ETH #ETH走势分析

12.9 Tuesday Pancake Morning Thoughts

Bitcoin's rebound is facing a phase of weakening resistance, with the price reaching a high of 92262 on the 4-hour chart before falling sharply, directly breaking below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Bullish momentum is quickly diminishing, and a short-term correction trend is clear.

Operating Suggestions

Short Position Layout: Lightly short in the 90500-90800 range, with a stop loss above 91200, targeting sequentially at 89500 and 89000, taking profits in batches and avoiding prolonged battles. $BTC #比特币

12.9 Tuesday Gold Morning Trend

Current spot gold price is 4195.08, showing a stabilization and rebound trend at the 5-minute level, with the price standing above the short-term moving averages (5MA/10MA). The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross and the red bars are expanding, with 9% of the funds favoring long positions. The bullish momentum is dominant in the short term. Combined with the daily level, gold is still in a high-level oscillation range, with the support zone at 4180-4188 being validated multiple times, providing a safety margin for bullish positioning.

Operating Suggestion

Go long around 4190-4194, with a stop loss at 4180. The initial target is 4210, and after breaking through, look towards the resistance level of 4217-4220. #黄金

The crude oil price surged to 59.994 and then quickly plummeted, breaking below the support of the 5/10/20-day moving averages. The long bearish candlestick highlights the exhaustion of bullish momentum and strong selling pressure above, establishing a short-term bearish pattern.

Trading suggestion: Focus on short positions, with resistance above at the previous high of 59.994 and the psychological level of 60.0. If a rebound occurs to the resistance area, short positions can be established. For support, first look at 59.804; if broken, further downside targets are the 59.746-59.708 range. #原油

12.8 Monday Silver Midday Analysis

Silver initially surged to 58.571 before quickly plunging, dipping to a low of 57.504. Although there was a rebound, the 5/10/20-day moving averages are converging and flattening, indicating a weak consolidation following the previous downtrend, with selling pressure above still unresolved. The short-term bearish pattern remains unchanged.

Operational Advice: Focus on short positions at high levels, with key resistance at the previous high of 58.571 and the 58.0 level. If a rebound occurs to the resistance zone, consider opening short positions. For support, initially look at the daily low of 57.504; if it breaks, further downside targets are 57.341-57.0 range. #白银

12.8 Monday Gold Midday Analysis

The gold market has experienced a roller coaster with a surge followed by a drop. After reaching a high of 4213.25, the price quickly turned downward, falling to a low of 4197.68 by the end of the session, ultimately forming a long upper shadow bearish candle. Based on the moving average trends, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages have shown signs of turning downward, indicating a clear signal of short-term bullish momentum exhaustion.

From the chart pattern analysis, this resistance encountered during the surge is not coincidental. The price failed to maintain stability after rebounding to a key resistance area, and the long upper shadow visually reflects heavy selling pressure above. The profit-taking actions of bulls after the surge are evident, and there is a risk of forming a short-term double top technically, implying that this rebound has likely reached its peak, with a high probability of entering a correction or even a downward trend in the future.

Operational Suggestions:

1. The core idea is to focus on short positions. The primary resistance above is the intraday high of 4213.25. If the market is weak, the price may struggle to break this level. One can enter short positions on the right side below this level based on 5-minute signals. If it breaks through, wait to set short positions in the 4228-4245 range.

2. The support below is first at the intraday low of 4197.68, and further down to the 4185-4170 range. If 4170 is effectively breached, the four-hour level will shift from consolidation to a bearish trend, and subsequent trades can follow the trend, targeting lower at 4130-4050. #黄金

12.8 Monday Concubine Midday Trend Analysis

The four-hour chart of ETH shows a clear bearish pattern. After a previous surge and pullback, the rebound is hindered by the pressure from the MA169/MA144 dual moving averages, with the short-term rebound ceiling locking in on key resistance levels.

The narrowing of the candlestick body combined with insufficient volume highlights the weakness of the bulls. The rebound has not broken the core pressure, and the dominance of the bears is solidified. In terms of operations, the focus is on shorting during rebounds, backed by key resistance, while closely monitoring the support at the integer level below. A significant break could lead to following the trend.

Operating Suggestions

Short around 3125-3150, target 3100, near 3000. #ETH走势分析

12.8 Monday Large Pancake Midday Strategy Analysis

Hourly level high position oscillation slightly bearish, KDJ death cross confirms the continuation of the bears, weakening rebound with low volume, downward momentum not yet released. Clearly define the oscillation box's upper and lower edges, effective resistance levels suppress, breaking the support level will initiate a new wave of decline. Focus on shorting during the rebound, avoid entering at the middle of the range, do not bet on breakthroughs, and after breaking, follow the trend.

Suggestions

Short near 91500-92500, target 90000, around 85000. $BTC

Why is the domestic ban on virtual currency so strict? After reading these points, you'll understand.

Have you ever wondered why the government has such strict controls over virtual currency? The answer is quite simple—its existence directly challenges the financial order and social governance baseline around us.

Take the money that ordinary people care about the most, for example. If you have 5 million in cash in the country and want to transfer it abroad, the legal paths are riddled with regulations: individuals are limited to purchasing foreign currency and remitting a maximum of $50,000 per year, and it would take 14 years to transfer 5 million RMB; if you find more than 3 people to help with the remittance, it will be monitored, and carrying cash out of the country exceeding $5,000 or 20,000 RMB must be declared. Trying to directly remit RMB abroad is even more impossible. These rules are not restrictions, but rather safeguards for national financial security.

However, virtual currency can bypass all these restrictions. It acts like an "invisible wallet," allowing 5 million in assets to be stored on a USB drive, taken out of the country without anyone knowing; even if there are limits, finding 14 people to help exchange can easily break through the monitoring. More critically, it facilitates anonymous transactions and is decentralized, meaning no institution can trace the flow of funds.

This is no small matter. On one hand, a large amount of assets flowing out through virtual currency can impact exchange rate stability, affecting the financial security of each of us; on the other hand, anonymous transactions render the regulation of the Golden Tax Phase IV ineffective, allowing some to profit without paying taxes, which is both unfair and leads to a loss of national tax revenue. In addition, virtual currency is often used for money laundering and fraud, and the volatile price swings leave countless people with nothing; these risks are not far from our lives.

The government's ban on virtual currency is not about preventing everyone from investing, but rather about maintaining the bottom line of financial security to protect the assets of ordinary people from being consumed by risks. After all, without a stable financial order, even the highest returns are just illusions. $BTC

12.8 Monday Morning Trend Analysis

Continue to hold a short position in the morning, closely monitor the performance of key resistance zones. If the rebound is weak and key levels are effectively broken, seize the opportunity for continued bearishness.

Operational Suggestions

Around 3130-3150, target 2980-2900 #ETH走势分析 $ETH

12.8 Monday Pancake Morning Trend Analysis

BTC 1-hour moving averages repeatedly intersect, maintaining a fluctuating pattern where it's easy to rise after a dip and easy to fall after a rise, with both bulls and bears in a standoff without a clear direction.

The technical side lacks clear trend guidance, and the market is cautiously building momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. It is recommended to go short after a rebound and wait for a breakout direction after the decision is made before following the trend.

Trading Suggestions

Near 91500-92500, look for a target of 88500-89000$BTC

12.8 Monday Morning Crude Oil Trend Analysis

Crude oil rose to 60.057 before falling back sharply, now stabilizing at 59.844. The 5/10/20-day moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, with strong resistance between 59.9 and 60.0.

The strategy is mainly to short on rallies, with initial support at 59.746. If this level is broken, then the focus will be on the 59.69-59.70 range. #原油

12.8 Monday Silver Morning Trend Analysis

From the market trend, after the silver price surged to a high of 59.080, it quickly fell back, experiencing a significant drop during the day, with a lowest point reaching 57.930. Although there was a slight rebound afterward, the current price has stabilized at 58.099, clearly indicating an overall bearish trend.

On the technical side, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages show a bearish arrangement, with short-term moving averages rapidly turning downward, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is waning, and bears are in control. After the price broke through the previous support level, the 58.2 level has transformed from support to strong resistance. If the rebound cannot effectively break through this level, the downward trend will likely continue.

Combining the trend patterns, the "inverted V" reversal after the price surge, accompanied by a volume increase in the decline, forms a clear bearish suppression pattern. In the future, it is highly probable that the price will be pressured to decline around the resistance range of 58.1-58.2. It is recommended to focus on shorting at high points, with attention to the previous low support at 57.930. If this level is broken, further focus will be on the range of 57.7-57.8. #白银