百拾

比特币在93,000美元附近徘徊已经有段时间了，不少持仓者开始动摇。

但从周线结构看，之前的回调根本没跌破90,000这个关键支撑，这种形态在技术分析里往往预示着后续空间。十万关口确实是个心理大关，价格在此之前反复震荡很正常——这个位置既是散户的恐慌线，也可能是大资金的吸筹区。

现在93,000只是整个上升通道的中继位置。历史经验告诉我们，每次深度回调往往伴随着后续的爆发行情。在这个位置选择做空？风险收益比明显不划算，一旦突破100,000，追涨成本会急剧上升。

**如果要参与多头机会，这里有个参考方案：**

⚠️ **风控第一（重要）**
BTC处于历史高位区间，虽然趋势偏多，但插针洗盘随时可能发生。建议分批建仓，严禁重仓。

• **进场区间**：91,500 - 92,500（恐慌性回调时的埋伏点）
• **止损位**：89,000（跌破90,000整数关口且无法收复则离场）
• **目标位参考**：
🎯 第一档 98,000（前期高点附近，建议减仓保本）
🎯 第二档 105,000（突破十万后的情绪释放位）
🎯 第三档 126,000（周线级别的乐观预期，需要持币耐心）

市场波动是常态，关键是别让短期震荡影响自己的判断逻辑。

小本金想翻身？

说穿了就一件事——

跨过自己心里那道槛。

很多人觉得起不来，总怪技术差、节奏乱、行情看不懂。

可我真正走过来才发现——

卡住小资金的，从来不是什么技术指标。

是你的心理承受力根本没练出来。

本金少的时候，账面飘绿能把心跳拉到180，飘红又让你恨不得马上落袋为安。

那会儿你不叫交易。

叫被情绪牵着鼻子走。

你所有操作都围着"怕亏"

#ETH走势分析 🚀🚀🚀🔥🔥🔥DOGE is repeatedly testing the bottom—can it hold this time?

Dogecoin is being pulled back and forth at a critical juncture. Looking at the monthly chart of the balance sheet, the price has been hovering around $0.14, stepping on the so-called "ultimate support zone" ($0.12-$0.14). After dropping to $0.06 in October, it came back up and is now testing this area again—whether it can hold by the end of this month will fundamentally determine if there is a chance for a long-term bottom.

**The weekly outlook looks more concerning**. DOGE is caught between the dense support of $0.135-$0.145 and heavy moving averages above (the 200-week moving average is at $0.1556), and the key upward trend line has also been broken. This compressed pattern is a signal: whoever breaks out wins, and the next move may be a one-sided market.

**Conflicting signals everywhere**:
- **Looking hopeful**: Whales are accumulating, with single transactions exceeding 550 million DOGE; the 3-day MACD shows signs of a golden cross; practical applications such as Argentina's taxation and Tesla payments are advancing.
- **Hidden pitfalls**: The short-term trend is clearly downward, with the EMA bearish arrangement holding strongly; several attempts to surge upwards have been thwarted; increased deposits on exchanges indicate that selling pressure is actually accumulating.

**The truth**: This is not a time to rely on faith. **The monthly support line at $0.12-$0.14 is the last line of defense**; if it breaks, a deep correction is necessary. In the short term, if there is no significant breakout above the pressure zone of $0.157-$0.166, any rebound is an opportunity to offload.

**What to do**:
- For those heavily invested: reduce positions in batches in the $0.143-$0.157 area, don't bet everything.
- For those observing: wait for two signals—either a significant volume stabilizing at $0.145 and returning to the $0.155 moving average, or a drop to around $0.12 and stabilize amid panic. $BTC $ETH

DOGE is walking on a tightrope, not a smooth path. Can it hold this time? What do you think? $DOGE

#加密市场观察 【$BTC 区间震荡行情】

看涨信号: K线形态中出现强烈的看涨吞没形态，可能预示反弹潜力（高重要性）。

关键支撑: 当前价格位于80600强支撑位附近，若支撑有效，可能为看涨形态提供进一步验证（高重要性）。

成交量: 成交量数据不足，无法确认价格波动的有效性，增加了技术信号的不确定性（中重要性）。

分析且预测一下看看，请结合自身风险偏好参考哈。

【高抛 - 区间震荡】

进场: 90500附近，损: 91750，看: 80600

分析: 因为当前处于区间震荡状态，且90500为中等强度的阻力位，价格在该区域可能面临抛压，所以阻力位附近做空。

提醒一下: 突破并站稳91750上方，就不用看了。

【低吸 - 区间震荡】

进场: 80600附近，损: 79400，看: 90500

分析: 因为当前处于区间震荡状态，且80600为强支撑位，同时还有看涨吞没形态的出现，支撑位附近可能吸引买盘，所以在支撑位附近做多。

提醒一下: 跌破并持续运行于79400下方，就不用看了哈。$BTC

Current price 0.000055, target 119.55——Sounds like a fantasy?

But if you understand the history of Luna Classic (LUNC), you know how terrifying the explosive power of this old dragon can be.

The original LUNA's performance back in the day showed countless people what "getting rich overnight" and "instant zero" really mean.

At this price level, if a rebound really starts...

Old players know: LUNC never plays by the rules. Get ready, this rebound may come stronger than you think. $LUNC $LUNA

On December 8, several noteworthy capital movement signals appeared in the A-share market.

**Aerospace Electromechanical** suffered the most serious loss this time, with main funds withdrawing 1.217 billion. As the only listed entity under the Eighth Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, this company backs popular tracks like commercial aerospace and satellite manufacturing, and the market has always held fantasies about its asset integration story. Where is the problem? Revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 was directly halved, down 36%, and it also lost 247 million — while the stock price rose happily, the performance was bleeding, and this divergence will eventually need to be corrected.

**Wuliangye** saw an outflow of 753 million, down 1.47%, closing at 113.27 yuan. The leading liquor brand is known for its stability, and this wave of capital withdrawal seems more like a ripple effect of sector rotation. As the end of the year approaches, previously clustered funds begin to secure profits, coupled with the market's cooling short-term expectations for the consumer sector, liquor stocks inevitably need to take a breather.

**Qianzhao Optoelectronics** had a net outflow of 703 million, with the stock price slightly dropping 1.21% to 23.59 yuan. The LED chip sector has been heated up in the past two years by the concepts of Mini LED and Micro LED, but Qianzhao's performance growth has obviously not kept up with market appetite. The overall sentiment in the semiconductor industry is relatively cold, so funds will naturally be more selective.

The most interesting is **Aerospace Development** — while funds fled 685 million, the stock price surprisingly surged 6.95%, closing at 22 yuan. The story of military electronics continues to ferment, with concepts like communication confrontation and electronic blue army being quite solid, leading retail investors to be highly enthusiastic about taking over, while the main funds take the opportunity to cash in on profits. Behind the rise and fall, it is all just a game of capital.

最近圈内传来个跨界消息——美国那边突然放宽了对英伟达H200高端芯片的出口限制。虽然附带一些条件，但这个转向信号本身就够劲爆。

为啥说这事跟咱们有关？得从算力这条线说起。

英伟达芯片在全球算力供应链里是啥地位不用多讲，现在供应松绑，意味着AI和高性能计算领域能拿到更强的硬件支持。往咱们这边看，挖矿成本可能会因为设备供给改善而有所优化，效率提升空间也随之打开。

那些绑定算力概念和AI叙事的币种，估计短期内会先在情绪面上躁动一波。毕竟市场最爱的就是这种「技术利好+想象空间」的组合拳。

但话说回来，别光顾着激动。

芯片从政策放行到真正铺货落地，中间还有不短的周期；再说了，币市从来不是靠单条新闻就能持续拉盘的——更多时候是短线情绪叠加长期趋势共同作用的结果。

给个操作思路：盯紧后续动态，尤其是AI和算力板块头部币种的资金流向，但千万别见风就追高。真正靠谱的策略还是守住手里质地过硬的资产，别因为消息面波动就频繁换仓，最后沦为市场情绪的牺牲品。

这波政策对圈内来说，短期是情绪催化剂，对算力赛道尤其友好；长远看则是给行业发展多开了扇窗户。

趋势没走明朗之前，不如先按兵不动等信号清晰再说。

#ETH走势分析 Tuesday Ethereum Market Overview

Compared to the strong breakout of $BTC , $ETH has shown a more stable performance. It has been testing the range between $3080 and $3180, gaining only 0.04% during the day, clearly indicating that the market is holding back before an important juncture. This conservative attitude suggests that everyone is waiting—waiting for the next guiding signal.

On the technical side, the Ethereum Fusaka network upgrade has been successfully launched, and the improvement in network efficiency is now a foregone conclusion. However, what truly supports the fundamentals is the performance at the ecological level—especially the continuous prosperity of the Layer-2 sector, which is a long-term support.

The issue is that when the Federal Reserve swings like a "pendulum," making money is actually secondary; staying alive is the most important thing. At this stage, the advice to reduce leverage and carefully check stop-loss positions has become particularly worthy of attention. Whether it's $BTC or $ETH , risk control is always the first lesson.

Saw a shocking piece of data: Over the past three years, more than 60% of actively managed funds have not even beaten the benchmark.

This performance is truly speechless. Collecting high management fees, yet the result is worse than just passively buying the index? Those fund managers are probably busy holding meetings to 'review' right now.

Honestly, the traditional financial playbook is becoming increasingly disappointing. Instead of handing money over to these 'professionals' to waste, it’s better to allocate to ETFs yourself—at least they are transparent and have lower fees. Furthermore, currently, the index products in the crypto market and DeFi yield strategies actually give retail investors more autonomy.

The times have changed, it's time to wake up.

#美联储重启降息步伐 $FHE has come again in a U-shape, everyone, how many tickets like this is it already?

This kind of dealer's trick indeed has an advantage — once it starts to rally, it basically won't look back until it reaches the strongest resistance level. Just yesterday, it took a nosedive and smashed some goods, and today it directly skyrocketed by 70%. It is now sprinting towards a new high, and there are still no signs of retreat from the main forces. In this situation, a pullback is actually an opportunity to go long. The speed of breaking through the new high will be very fast.

It’s just that the wash is too fierce; one must grasp their own buying rhythm well.

$ETH $SOL

Seen the liquidation heatmap again? Wake up, this is the harvesting coordinates marked for you by the big players!

It’s laughable, these red and yellow charts are shared every day, do you really think you can see through the market's secrets? Don’t be ridiculous, this thing is essentially a diagram of pork cuts hanging on the wall of a slaughterhouse—clearly telling the traders where to cut the deepest and where they can get immediate results. Are you still there with a magnifying glass studying the patterns?

Have you seen the dense pile of chips from 88K to 89K? Someone calls this "strong support." Come on, this is fundamentally just a pre-booked collective graveyard! The more people set defenses here, the cleaner and quicker the explosion will be. A single needle poked down, and a whole string of margin evaporates, highly efficient.

Looking further up at the so-called "resistance level" between 92K-94K? Even harsher. That’s where the last round of shorts were cut to pieces, now it’s sitting there as bait. Waiting for new retail traders to rush up and shout "Breakthrough, breakthrough," and then—bam, the door closes, the dogs are released, and the old script plays again.

In plain terms:
The heatmap is the battle map of the big players. The yellow area? That’s the "frog boiling in warm water zone," slowly draining your margin. The red area? "Targeted demolition functional area," instantly bringing your account to zero. Whether it rises or falls is not important; what matters is where the orders are dense enough, rich enough, and worth harvesting. Your carefully set stop-loss line is just a clearly priced menu in their eyes.

Don’t be naive. When everyone is focused on the same "key point," that place is most likely a pit. Instead of studying how to read the heatmap, why not think about how to avoid becoming the brightest fuel on the chart?

Seen this far? Then I wish you don’t get liquidated today☀️

The Trump administration has just released a major announcement—American chip giants can sell some high-performance chips to the Chinese market, but there is a condition: they must give 25% of sales revenue to Uncle Sam as a "toll fee".

Specifically, NVIDIA is allowed to sell the H200 series (based on the Hopper architecture) to eligible customers, but the more advanced Blackwell and Rubin architectures are still off-limits. AMD and Intel are subject to the same rules.

As soon as the news broke, there was an immediate reaction in after-hours trading: NVIDIA rose by 1.4%, while Intel and AMD increased by 0.37% and 0.67%, respectively. The market is clearly betting that this policy will open up a revenue gap for these companies, especially in the AI training and data center sectors where demand for computing power is high.

For the cryptocurrency industry, this means that the hardware supply chain for mining and on-chain computing may loosen a bit—of course, the premise is that you have to accept that 25% "American tax".

#ETH走势分析 12 December 9th early session gold technical analysis

Overview of gold trends: A rebound from the low range is expected, with gradual increases likely within the consolidation range in the short term.

Expected daily fluctuation range: Approximately $85

Key resistance levels
- Second resistance: 4260.00
- First resistance: 4220.00

Central balance point: 4195.00

Support construction levels
- First support: 4175.00
- Second support: 4163.00

Market observation: Currently, gold is creating a relatively balanced tug-of-war between long and short positions at this price level. Technically, as long as it holds above the support, there is room for upward momentum. Investors involved with mainstream assets like $BTC $ETH $SOL are also observing the seesaw effect between risk assets and safe-haven assets.

NVIDIA's stock price surged after hours, and the market is saying that the news about the relaxation of restrictions on the H200 chip exports to China is what triggered it. But is it really that simple?

First, let’s state a basic fact: whether the U.S. Department of Commerce approves or not is just the beginning. NVIDIA's market share in the domestic market has dropped to zero, and it's not just because of the U.S. ban. Domestic regulators have long advised local tech companies to suspend purchases of such advanced chips for data security reasons. Now that the U.S. side has unilaterally relaxed its stance, can it pass the domestic approval process? That is the key to determining actual orders. You may have the key to open one door, but then you find that there is still a second iron gate locked inside; can this deal go through?

What’s even more intriguing is the choice of timing. Why is it specifically the H200—a product that is roughly a year and a half behind the latest architecture? Frankly, this is a typical defensive concession. Huawei's Ascend supernode technology and the advanced process capabilities maintained by domestic chips through multiple exposure techniques have made the other side realize: continuing a comprehensive blockade will only foster a completely independent competitive ecosystem.

The current strategy seems to be throwing out a second-tier product as a buffer, allowing for a share of the pie while attempting to delay the timeline for a complete domestic industrial chain closure. But how long can this fence-sitting tactic last? Once the process of independent substitution in the semiconductor industry starts, it will be hard to hit the pause button. From computing power demands, supply chain security to technical route choices, there are still many variables in this game.

Last year, a friend of mine had only 1200U left in his account and came to ask me how to turn things around. At that time, I gave him three pieces of advice, and as a result, he followed them for three months and managed to grow his account to 50,000U without a single liquidation.

Today, I’m sharing this method, and how much you can grasp depends entirely on your own ability.

**Divide the money into three parts, don't put all your eggs in one basket**

Split the 1200U into three parts, with each part being 400U, and manage each account separately without mixing them up.

First part: Quick in and out, a maximum of two trades per day, finish up without being greedy.

Second part: Trend-specific funds, don’t act unless you see clear signals; if the weekly chart isn’t showing strength, treat this money as if it doesn’t exist.

Third part: Emergency funds, specifically for black swan events; if one day things go south, make sure to top it up immediately to ensure you can keep playing.

Going all in? Don't even think about it. A liquidation is like a severed finger; you can reattach a finger, but if you lose your head, it’s really over.

**Only eat the fat, don't gnaw on the bones**

In a volatile market, it’s a meat grinder; you can lose nine times out of ten trades. My entry signals are particularly simple:

Is the daily moving average not aligned? Stay out. Is there a breakout with volume confirming a new high? Get in at the first opportunity.

Once you earn 30% of your capital, immediately withdraw half to secure your profits; set a 10% trailing stop on the remaining amount to slowly take profits.

Remember, opportunities are there every day; don’t rush to get in, just catch the tailwind.

**Be a trading machine, not a slave to emotions**

Before entering the market, write the rules down:

Always set a stop-loss at 3%; when it hits, cut automatically without blinking. Once you make 10% profit, move the stop-loss to the breakeven point; any additional profits are yours to keep.

Every night at 11 PM, shut down your devices; no matter how appealing the candlestick patterns are, don’t look at them. If you really can’t sleep, uninstall the trading app.

Trade to the point of boredom, so that you can survive long-term.

From 1200U to 50,000U, it’s not about any magical operations, it’s simply about "making fewer mistakes."

The market is there every day, but if you lose your capital, there will be no chance to turn things around. First, engrave these three ironclad rules in your mind, then study all the fancy things like wave theory, Fibonacci, various indicators, and funding rates.

Survive first, and then you have a chance to get rich; if you can’t survive, you’re just cannon fodder contributing fees to others.

#美联储重启降息步伐 Can the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts bring a turnaround for the crypto market?

On the surface, three consecutive rate cuts should be a positive signal — loose liquidity often flows into high-risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the surge in dissenting votes is the hidden variable behind this seemingly positive news. What does the fracture in policy consensus mean? The next decision-maker may be forced to change direction, and by then, the market's "roller coaster"行情 will be right in front of us.

The problem is that retail investors are often fooled by the old script that "interest rate cuts equal bull markets." In reality, today's crypto market is no longer in the era of easy profits. Institutional algorithmic trading is continuously hunting for the emotions of retail investors with precision. While three consecutive cuts may temporarily boost BTC prices, the uncertainty of policy is simultaneously rising — this is the real danger in the market.

The crypto world is never short of "fake positives." The key is whether you can see through the true nature of the "sugar-coated bullet." The ones who truly make money are not those chasing prices, but rather those who enter the market in stages when others are fearful and decisively exit when others are greedy. This is not counterintuitive thinking; it is the unchanging law of the market.

Rather than passively accepting market emotions, it is better to actively learn to understand them. Interest rate cut cycles, policy shifts, market fluctuations — these are all chips in the hands of seasoned players. $BTC

#美联储重启降息步伐 Monday's Crude Oil Pre-Market Review

Has the bullish structure stabilized this time? Last week, the daily chart tested the 56 mark, and the bears didn't push it down. If this position holds, the logic for moving upward in the medium term becomes clear. The hourly chart is even more direct—moving averages are starting to spread upwards, with support getting stronger below and momentum clearly favoring the bulls.

Today, there is a high probability of testing the upper range.

What to do?
If there's a pullback to the 59.5 to 59.7 range, you can cautiously enter long positions with a small amount, setting the stop loss below 59.2; don't be greedy. The initial target is to watch the 60 round number, and if it breaks through, aim for 60.3.

The expectation of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts is still brewing. Liquidity easing is generally favorable for commodities, and the short-term technicals combined with the fundamentals suggest that the logic for going long is temporarily sound. But remember, trade with a light position and don't get too carried away.

A friend of mine did something particularly outrageous back in the day: he directly sold a house worth 8.8 million and exchanged it for 28 kilograms of solid gold. Everyone around was in an uproar—relatives came in groups to advise, "House prices are still skyrocketing, are you crazy to sell?", while the agent whispered, "Too much money to burn", and even the old man selling cigarettes at the community gate shook his head.

Eight years have passed, and the script has flipped. That house is now listed for 6.5 million, and no one is willing to take it. As for him? He casually sold 8 kilograms of gold (at that time it was 860 per gram), not only buying back the house at a low price but also getting a set of light luxury renovations, with 20 kilograms of gold bars still lying in his hands. After hearing this story, I almost choked on my drink—this is just a living textbook on cycles?

To be honest, this kind of drama is too common in the investment circle. I've seen too many people: some asset rises tenfold yet they stubbornly hold on saying "just wait a bit longer", only to end up losing everything; when the market hits rock bottom, they are scared to death, and when it rises, they jump in with both feet; a few years ago, they cursed certain things as "cutting leeks", and now they regret it so much that they stomp their feet after seeing the prices. Many people say this is luck, but I think—luck only favors those who understand the rhythm. Those who truly know how to play never join the crowd to hype up; they act quietly at turning points.

There’s a hard truth in this: there are no assets that always rise; there is only a continuously spinning cycle roulette. Why is gold resilient? It has been a hard currency for a thousand years, and the messier it gets, the more it retains its value; real estate indeed created wealth in earlier years, but once the policy changes and supply and demand are inverted, it has to drop. The same applies to the crypto market: some assets are "hedging shields" (you know, the ones called "digital gold"), which drop slowly during market upheavals; others are "growth players", which can multiply several times in a bull market but also can’t withstand a bear market's cut in half.

The key is that you need to know where you are on the roulette now. Is it time to hold hard currency steady, or should you exchange it for high-elasticity assets for a gamble? This is not a decision made on a whim; you need to look at the cycle signals: where the money flows, how extreme the sentiment is, and which way the policy winds are blowing. That friend who exchanged for gold is impressive because he saw the ceiling during the craziest times in the real estate market and placed his bets when gold was being despised.

Cycles do not lie; it’s your own greed and fear that deceive you.

#ETH走势分析 $ASTER This project was founded by someone from our Chinese community.

There's an old saying in the crypto world, what was it? Some big shots' opinions can be listened to, but the things they promote... seasoned investors all know what's up.

Recently, I've seen beautiful models come out to endorse again? This trick has been seen by those who have been in the circle for several years. We still need to be vigilant when it's time to be vigilant.

$BTC $ETH

#加密市场观察 At this position, I think we can consider laying out short positions.

$BTC Entering short at the current price level, targeting around 86500. $ETH Simultaneous operation, expecting a pullback to the 2800 line.

These two positions are the key support areas I am observing, and the probability of a short-term adjustment is not small. Of course, set stop losses strictly, the market changes quickly, and take profits when they are good. $BTC