opium

BitMine releases the latest holdings update:

Currently, the company's total holdings of cryptocurrency + high-risk investments are approximately $13.2 billion, specifically including:
ETH: 3,864,951 coins (valued at $3,139 per coin)
BTC: 192 coins
Cash reserves: $1 billion
#ETH走势分析 $ETH

Despite the long-term structural view, MON remains relatively weak, but it is not suitable to blindly short in the short term.

Currently, the contract's open interest is still at a high level, and the short positions are relatively high. Under this structure, the probability of a 'short squeeze' happening is not low.

Additionally, one realistic factor needs to be considered:
As MONAD is Coinbase's first public offering project, there is a certain expectation of 'market support,' and it is not ruled out that there may be a floor support at key price levels to avoid a rapid drop below the public sale range, which could impact market sentiment and the project's image.

In summary:
The long-term bearish view remains unchanged, but the short-term structure is complex, and pursuing shorts requires extra caution.
#MON

Tonight at 23:00, the U.S. Core PCE for September will be released, with only 40 minutes left.

FedWatch shows:
The probability of a 25bp rate cut in December is 87.2%
The probability of keeping it unchanged is 12.8%

On Polymarket, the probability of a 25bp rate cut is even higher, reaching 93%.

It is worth mentioning that two weeks ago, the probability of 'no rate cut' once exceeded that of '25bp rate cut' — this was one of the core reasons for the market weakening at that time.

However, with the recent dovish signals from the Fed and some macro data supporting the rate cut path, the market's expectations for a rate cut have once again been elevated.

It should be emphasized that:
This PCE is the most critical piece of data before next week's FOMC meeting and is very likely to directly influence the Fed's final decision.
#美联储重启降息步伐 $ETH

FORM is currently still operating in a declining wedge structure.

From the volume distribution perspective, if it breaks upward through the upper edge of the wedge, it is highly likely to encounter resistance in the high volume range of 0.41 in the short term, while around 0.43 is the current maximum trading density area, where the price is likely to face pressure.

However, it is crucial to be wary of the following:
FORM's recent trading volume has been persistently sluggish, with momentum clearly insufficient. In this volume context, there is a possibility of continuing to experience a sideways decline and pattern failure.
#加密市场观察 $FORM

TRUMP and UNI's trends are highly synchronized:
After a short period of sideways movement, they dipped to support levels and then rebounded back to the previous high trading volume range.

Currently, it appears that both are likely to continue oscillating within the upper and lower ranges.

The key going forward still depends on Bitcoin:
If BTC can stabilize at the 90,000 mark, both TRUMP and UNI are expected to once again push toward local highs.
$UNI $TRUMP

EIGEN is still operating within a downward channel, having fallen nearly 65% from the peak of the channel.

The current price is close to the lowest point of the crash on 10/11, which may provide a short-term support — but it should be emphasized that a rebound does not equal a trend reversal, and the overall structure remains weak.

If this area cannot be held, EIGEN may eventually drop towards the 0.3 region.
#加密市场回调 $EIGEN

NEAR has broken through the key support area of 1.7–1.8.

If today's closing cannot return to this area, from the daily structure, it has only completed a downward break of the rectangular oscillation range.
According to technical calculations, NEAR may continue to explore historical lows.

What is more noteworthy is:
Bitcoin has only dropped below 90,000, many altcoins are already close to historical bottom ranges.
If BTC really goes down to 70,000 or even lower, altcoins will generally face a deeper round of declines.

You might think: "My altcoin has already dropped 90% from its peak, could it drop further?"
Unfortunately, it indeed could drop another 90%.

So—despite the fact that altcoins "look very cheap" now, it is not an ideal bottom-fishing range.

If you really want to invest, prioritize BTC and other mainstream, high-quality assets, and use a phased approach to reduce risk.
#加密市场反弹

After AVAX broke below the key support zone of 14.7–15.6, it rebounded to this zone and faced resistance again.

Structurally, AVAX is still operating within a descending channel, currently being pressured by the upper edge of the channel, with an overall weak trend.

Next, we will see if the price continues to be pushed down:
If it continues to weaken, the short-term target will point to the previous low area, approximately around 12.6.
#加密市场反弹 $AVAX

BNB broke through the 880 resistance level and is currently consolidating, still following a short-term ascending trend line.

The key next point to watch is the support strength at 880:
If it holds above 880, BNB is expected to continue climbing towards previous highs and high volume areas, with a target around 950.
If it falls below 880, then the area around 800 will become the next important observation point, and BNB may regain support there.
#加密市场反弹 $BNB

DASH rebounded from the support zone of 50–60, but faced resistance again at 70.

The overall structure remains weak, with the price continuing to operate in a downward trend.
In the short term, DASH is likely to continue consolidating in the 50–60 range.

In the long term, although privacy coins often temporarily outperform BTC in the bull tail—bear initial phase, they ultimately still struggle to escape the overall downward fate—this is determined by narrative, liquidity, and regulatory pressure together.
#加密市场反弹 $DASH

BTC has returned to 90,000, but the real test has just begun.

Currently, the price is stuck in the key range of 88,500–91,500. In the short-term rebound, the trading volume has not increased, and the open interest (OI) has not shown a significant rise—this means the market has not given a "stable" signal yet.

The next path is very clear:

If it successfully stabilizes in this range, the next stop will be the 100,000 mark.
If it's just a weak rebound, BTC may still retrace to 75,000—the low point of this year, which is also the potential main support.
#加密市场反弹 $BTC

Recently, the chart structures of TRUMP and UNI are very similar:

Sharp decline → Sideways consolidation
Break through short-term resistance → Create a new high for the phase
Then broke below the key level
Currently, both are gaining support near the high trading volume area of the previous sideways range
At the same time, the trading volumes for both have clearly shrunk compared to the breakout phase,

Key observation points

If both TRUMP & UNI can hold the lower boundary of the sideways range
→ There is a chance to surge again, challenging the previous highs

If both break below the lower boundary of the range
→ Prices may return to the previous sharp decline shadow area to "replenish liquidity"
$UNI $TRUMP

SUI is currently retesting the key resistance zone after breaking below $1.6–$1.8.

If this zone cannot hold, the overall trend remains biased towards a weak structure.

From a larger chart perspective:
Around $0.65 is the global POC (high volume concentration area),
which is also the area where significant accumulation and turnover occurred in the past.
If the rebound fails and the trend continues downward, SUI has a higher probability of returning to this position for support confirmation.
#加密市场回调 $SUI

MON Technology + Sentiment Analysis: The "Accumulation Zone" Before a Major Market Move

MON's open interest (OI) continues to rise, which is a very clear signal.
Whether it is upward or downward, once the direction is determined, the market will become very volatile.

This type of structure usually indicates that the market is brewing a "big explosion".

Funding Rate: Bearish Bias
From Binance's funding rate, the current funding is < -0.2%,
which indicates a bearish dominance,
and this structure typically leads to:

If a short squeeze occurs above, the price might spike directly, recreating the previous "sharp surge" pattern.

But it must be noted:
The market environment is different from the last major surge.

Strategy Suggestion:
Do not over-leverage in one direction, wait for direction confirmation before following in.
#加密市场回调 $MON

This week will see a series of heavyweight macro data, all of which will directly impact the market's expectations for whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, making it a standard "direction determines week".

Key Data Overview
Tuesday (the most concentrated day)
September PPI (Producer Price Index)
→ A leading indicator of inflation, significant for CPI

September retail sales data
→ Measures the strength of consumption, directly affecting economic growth judgments

Consumer Confidence Index
→ A sentiment reference for future consumption and inflation expectations

Wednesday (the heavyweight among heavyweights)
US Q3 GDP (Quarterly Gross Domestic Product)
→ One of the strongest macro indicators

Core PCE Price Index (the inflation indicator most focused on by the Federal Reserve)
→ Directly affects FOMC decisions

Total number of new home sales in September
→ Reflects the degree of recovery/deterioration in the real estate market

Thursday
US Thanksgiving (market closed + liquidity plummeting)
#鲍威尔发言 $ETH

VIRTUAL Technical Analysis: Key Confirmation After Breaking Support

After VIRTUAL broke the support level near 1.20,
it is currently approaching the upper boundary of the previous rectangular pattern (around 0.90), which is acting as new short-term support.

If the price stabilizes around 0.90:
There is a potential for a short-term rebound to around 1.02, where the recent local resistance level is located.
If it continues to break below the 0.90 support:
The space below will open up, and the next target will be around 0.70,
#美联储重启降息步伐

Bitcoin Death Cross One Week Later: This Time There Are No Signs of a Stop Loss

It has been over a week since Bitcoin formed a 50D SMA cross below the 200D SMA (death cross).
Historically, death crosses usually indicate a local bottom, followed by a slight rebound.
However, this time, Bitcoin continued to decline by 16%, showing no signs of any stop loss structure.
Clearly, this death cross did not fulfill the historical role of indicating a rebound; the price action is much weaker than expected.

Historical Pattern: Every Bear Market Must "Pull Back to the 200-Day Moving Average"
It is particularly noteworthy that:
In the last two bear markets, Bitcoin exhibited the same behavior—
Before a real crash, it would always pull back once to the 200D SMA.

2018 Bear Market:
From 6500 → pulled back to 10000 (200D SMA),
Then it fell to 5800.

2022 Bear Market:
From 38000 → pulled back to 48000 (200D SMA),
Then it crashed to 17800.

This feature indicates:
During bear markets, the most common "rebound endpoint" is the 200D SMA.

Applying this to the current situation: Where is the 200D SMA?
The current 200D SMA is around $110,500.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is only around $85,000,
indicating that if it is to repeat the historical "bear market pullback,"
Bitcoin needs to rise nearly 30%.

The problem is:
The price continues to break down
There is no stable support

This means:
It is extremely difficult for Bitcoin to complete a pullback in the short term.

If we continue to benchmark history, when might Bitcoin pull back to the 200D SMA?
Since the 200D SMA is an extremely lagging indicator (even if it crashes, it takes months to turn downward),
In historical bear markets, the pullback to the 200D SMA usually occurs:
3–6 months after the top crashes

After a significant decline, when it begins to move in a range
Based on the current rhythm:
If this structure is similar to 2018 / 2022,
The next time Bitcoin pulls back to the 200D SMA could be in:
👉 March–April 2026 (highest probability)
By then, market sentiment will be desperate, all moving averages will be bending downward, and a pullback will be easier to occur.
#比特币波动性 $BTC

Bitcoin's performance is weak: multiple key supports have been breached

Bitcoin has shown very weak performance recently —
it not only broke through the extremely important integer level of $100,000,
but also broke through the previous key support range of $88,500–$91,500,
and even failed to hold the opening price for 2025.

In other words:
this is a series of declines with "almost no support playing a role."
Points like $100,000 and $90,000, which should have attracted huge buying pressure,
almost did not form any decent support in this pullback,
indicating that market confidence is extremely fragile and selling pressure is huge.

🔍 Key levels ahead
Weekend market usually has weaker liquidity, making it easier to amplify volatility.
Bitcoin is expected to test the price action near $90,000 again.

If it encounters resistance and falls back at 90k:
the next target range will look towards around $74,000,
which has three key significances:
Lowest point so far in 2025
Historical peak in 2024 (key reversal area)
Important turning point for sentiment and structure

Whether this range can hold is crucial for the future trend.
$BTC #加密市场回调