puppies-暮梵

Purchase tutorial is here, need to pick up.

🚀 Musk Concept + Community Consensus: $Puppies is starting a new chapter

Do you remember how Musk made $DOGE soar with just one tweet? From Dogecoin to Shiba Inu, every "Musk Effect" has ignited the entire crypto market. Now, $Puppies will take over the baton of this trend and impact the meme track with a brand new posture.

$Puppies not only inherits the core of "fun + consensus" but also optimizes the mechanism to ensure the community truly enjoys governance and profit rights. We firmly believe that meme coins are not just a celebration of memes but a reflection of global crypto culture. What Musk represents is a spirit that dares to break through tradition, and that is exactly the value that $Puppies wants to convey.

In the future, $Puppies will gradually explore scenarios combining with NFT and GameFi, granting token holders more actual rights. At the same time, we also welcome more community members to participate in co-building, allowing $Puppies to grow from a fun symbol into a globally circulated value consensus.

🌐 With the support of the "Musk Effect," $Puppies might just be the next super star to ignite the market. Join now, and witness the crypto miracle belonging to $Puppies with us!
$DOGE $SOL #doge #山寨季何时到来？

🔥Recently, the three most talked-about letters in the financial circle: RMP! How important is it? In a nutshell — it may be the starting point of the 'next wave of liquidity'.

In the past week, all the big shots on Wall Street have been fixated on one word: RMP (Reserve Management Purchases). Don't be fooled by the name; this is not an ordinary technical operation, but more like a 'subtle preparatory action for balance sheet expansion'. Why do I say that?

Because the Federal Reserve just announced a halt to balance sheet reduction, and the market immediately faced a key question: should we inject liquidity back into the market?
The emergence of RMP is precisely to tell the market: 'We may take action, but we won't call it QE.'

The approach of RMP is that the Federal Reserve will buy short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) for a long time and continuously, aiming to keep bank reserves sufficient. It sounds quite 'neutral', but the effect is quite direct — releasing liquidity into the market. Don't forget, historically, every similar operation has significantly benefited asset prices.

What's even more exciting is that some institutions estimate: if RMP is launched at the expected scale, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will head toward net expansion again, potentially injecting about $20 billion in liquidity into the system each month. This is not to be underestimated in its influence on the stock market, bond market, and cryptocurrencies.

So why has Wall Street suddenly become restless these days?
Because the market is betting: RMP = a new generation of 'mild QE'.
Once launched, risk assets may welcome another wave of sentiment and valuation resonance.

Now the key lies in how the Federal Reserve chooses:
Continue to maintain 'technical liquidity management'?
Or open the door to a new round of liquidity cycles?

Not to exaggerate — RMP will be one of the most noteworthy signals in the market for the next few months. #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

风雨无阻，一直建设家园！#ETH走势分析 $ETH

The market fluctuates, while the community is warm like spring! $ETH
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析

🚨Japan may raise interest rates! Is the global financial landscape about to change?

Brothers, don't think this is just about Japan; its impact is strong enough to affect every asset market worldwide.

🔥Why is Japan's interest rate hike a global event?

Because for decades, Japan has been the world's largest "zero interest rate + quantitative easing center." In other words, the bull market for global assets has all benefited from the "cheap funds" released by Japan.
Once Japan raises interest rates, this money may——
➡️ Flow back to Japan from around the world
➡️ Drain U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and emerging markets
➡️ Mark the official start of global liquidity tightening.

In the past, everyone said the Federal Reserve was the world's central bank, but this year a strange phenomenon has emerged:
With a wave of Japan's hand, global markets start to shake.

🧨The U.S. is cutting rates while Japan is raising them——the rarest "interest rate differential reversal" in the world.

If the Federal Reserve really starts to cut rates this year while Japan goes in the opposite direction, an unprecedented scene will occur:
• U.S. dollar interest rates ↓
• Yen interest rates ↑
• The interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and yen narrows

What does this mean?
➡️ The "yen carry trade" that has been in place for decades may begin to unravel
➡️ Funds will no longer be willing to borrow cheap yen to buy U.S. Treasuries/U.S. stocks/gold/cryptos
➡️ The underlying funding structure of global risk assets will be reshuffled

This is not a decision of one country; it is an earthquake that affects the entire financial system.

🌍What does this mean for the global market?

📉 U.S. stocks may come under pressure
AI stocks and tech stocks may revert to fundamentals if they lose cheap leverage.

📉 U.S. Treasury yields may experience severe volatility again
Foreign funds withdraw, forcing the U.S. to continue issuing high-level bonds.

📉 Emerging markets under the most pressure
Asia and Latin America may face another wave of capital outflows.

📈 The yen may welcome a super reversal trend
The yen has depreciated for decades; it may truly be at the bottom.

📈 Cryptocurrency market? Short-term volatility may intensify, but long-term could benefit
Because when the old global order is reshuffled, new assets will emerge.

🚀In summary

Japan's interest rate hike is not ordinary news; it is the largest "underlying logic shift" in the global financial system in twenty years.
In the past, it was "U.S. interest rate hikes impacting the world,"
In the future, it may become:
👉 Misalignment of Japan-U.S. policies = A black swan for global liquidity. $ETH

Come on! 👏 Come on! 👏 Build! Build! The Paw Patrol is always here! $ETH
$BTC
#美SEC推动加密创新监管 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析

Because this suddenly became hard? $BTC
#美SEC推动加密创新监管 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析
$ETH

Perseverance is our motto! #ETH巨鲸增持 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 $BTC $ETH

🔥The Bank of Japan is finally going to take serious action? This could be the "turning point" for the yen and the global market!

Brothers, just now, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's speech was definitely the most "concrete and hawkish" one since this policy cycle began. The market was originally just guessing, but now Ueda himself hinted: a rate hike in December is indeed possible!

In his speech in Nagoya, he made a key statement: "We will weigh the economy, inflation, and financial market conditions and decide whether to raise interest rates at the appropriate time." — Translated, it means: I cannot guarantee a raise, but I am already posturing.

The market reaction was explosive:
• OIS pricing for the probability of a rate hike: rising to 64% in December, reaching as high as 90% before January next year!
• The two-year government bond yield surged to the highest level since 2008!
• The yen strengthened directly, with the market clearly betting on an "end-of-year rate hike".

More importantly — the "wind direction" within the Bank of Japan has also changed:
• Junko Koizumi is calling for policy normalization;
• Kazunari Masuda said, "The timing for a rate hike is approaching";
• Even the traditionally dovish Asahi Noguchi has begun to worry about "acting too late".
This tells you: the committee has already begun to lean towards a rate hike; it just needs Ueda to make the final call.

Ueda also added: "Even if we raise rates, the policy will still remain accommodative." — This is classic central bank "hawkish yet dovish", but this statement itself implies: he is preemptively reassuring the market and laying the groundwork for public opinion ahead of a rate hike.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Ministry of Finance suddenly announced plans to issue more two-year and five-year government bonds as well as a large amount of treasury bills for fiscal stimulus. In simple terms: the government is spending big + the central bank is preparing for a rate hike = short-term interest rates are forced to rise, putting immense pressure on the bond market.

Foreign strategists are sending a unified signal:
• "This is a potential turning point for the yen."
• "This is a prelude to the rate hike in December."

📌 In summary: The Bank of Japan might really be about to end the era of negative interest rates.
If they really take action in December — the yen might experience a trend reversal, and global interest rates and capital flows will be forced to reprice.

Next, the market needs to keep a close eye on December 19. The real drama has just begun. $BTC $ETH #日本加息

The enthusiasm remains, the construction continues! Keep it up! #加密市场反弹 #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Does anyone know what this Sun Ge incident is about? 🤔🤔

🔥【Dudley's Strong Statement: The Fed's Balance Sheet Reduction Mission is Complete, Officially Tapping the Brakes in December】🔥
Recently, the market has been buzzing about whether the Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet (QT), but former New York Fed President Dudley directly provided the answer: QT has reached its target, and the Fed is about to stop. Continuing to reduce it further not only carries significant risks but also offers negligible returns.

Why? Dudley's logic is very clear 👇

In the past two years, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet from $8.97 trillion to $6.56 trillion, and reserves have dropped from 'extremely ample' to 'just enough.' This status has already begun to show signals: the federal funds rate is rising toward the upper bound of its range, and repo rates frequently exceed the SRF rate, forcing banks to borrow from the Fed. Continuing to reduce it makes it easy to step on landmines.

After December 1st, the Fed will officially end QT and will start buying small amounts of U.S. Treasuries again to ensure that 'reserves are ample and not scarce.' It is expected that in the future, the Fed will buy less than $200 billion each year — which is nearly insignificant in the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market.

But the most critical point is:
📌 Balance sheet reduction has little effect on interest rate cuts
📌 Balance sheet reduction cannot change the tightness of monetary policy; interest rates are the only determining factor
So those who say 'continuing balance sheet reduction can create space for interest rate cuts' are directly evaluated by Dudley as unrealistic.

Want to reduce further? You can, but the cost is huge:
Either raise the SRF rate or eliminate the SRF, leading to greater volatility in the money market, increased liquidity risk for banks, and stronger settlement pressures. And how much can you save in the end? 4-5 basis points. Not worth it at all.

🔚 Dudley's conclusion is very clear: balance sheet reduction stops here; going further carries high risks and low returns, and it will not create space for future interest rate cuts. True monetary policy relies on interest rates, not on balance sheet reduction.

What does this mean?
👉 The market no longer needs to worry about 'unexpected outcomes from balance sheet reduction'
👉 The situation of tight liquidity will gradually ease
👉 The focus of the December FOMC is on interest rates, not the balance sheet

Next, all assets should focus on one thing: when will the Fed start cutting interest rates? #加密市场反弹 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH

Rush, let's see if we can eat big meat $MON 💪努力

🔥Powell is standing at the most dangerous crossroads of his term.
This time, the level of division within the Federal Reserve is something he has never faced in 8 years.

A rate cut in December was originally just "proceeding as planned." But now, it has become a high-risk action that could provoke opposition from several committee members—the divisions within the committee have grown to an unprecedented level, and the ultimate decision-making power has never been so concentrated in Powell's hands.

He is faced with only two paths, each carrying a cost.

The first path: cut rates as the market expects.
Then signal a "higher threshold for future rate cuts" in the statement—essentially "cut rates first, then pause." This was the old path he used in 2019: cutting rates first amid dissent, then using language to bring officials back to consensus. This could put an end to the bickering, but it would certainly face fierce backlash from hawks.

The second path: hold steady and push the decision to January.
Wait for the government shutdown to complete missing data and then reassess. But this means the divisions will continue to widen for seven weeks, and it cannot guarantee that the data will truly resolve the disputes.

The core of this division is not internal politics, but the contradictions of the economy itself:
Stagnant employment vs stubborn inflation
The market is showing signs of "stagflation," and any wrong decision could lead to irreversible consequences.

Williams and Daly, two of Powell's staunch allies, have already come out in support of the rate cut, and the market immediately pushed the probability of a December rate cut from 40% to 70%. But on the other side, four voting regional presidents have taken a hard stance, believing that inflation is spreading and that current rates cannot be touched.

In summary:
The December rate cut is not a technical issue; it's a political gamble with risk appetite.
If Powell wins the bet, it’s a sequel to 2019; if he loses, it’s the biggest failure of his term.

The script of the market is slowly being written in his hands.
#美联储重启降息步伐
$ETH
$ZEC
$BTC

The big short is back, and this time, he has aimed his gun directly at Nvidia.

Michael Burry—who rose to fame by shorting subprime mortgages and was featured in the Hollywood film 'The Big Short', just closed his hedge fund a few days ago, but immediately returned in a more 'free' way: he launched a paid Substack, charging $39 per month, and the subscriber count has already surged to 21,000. He says this is his 'fully invested' new platform, aptly named: 'Cassandra Unbound'.

Burry's main line this time is clear: questioning the current AI frenzy. In his latest article, he compares today's AI investment wave to the internet bubble of the 1990s, directly naming that Cisco was the symbol of the bubble back then, and today 'the one playing the role of Cisco is Nvidia'.

Burry mentions a key figure: Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Oracle, and a batch of new companies have promised to invest nearly $30 trillion in AI infrastructure over the next three years. Investors are still celebrating, but in his view, this kind of frenzied expansion from the supply side is essentially a form of 'greed', mirroring the peak of the internet bubble.

He even hints that some cloud giants are using aggressive accounting methods to 'package' hardware investments as beautiful profits, a point he will continue to delve into.

The most dramatic part is why he closed the fund. He said compliance restrictions prevented him from expressing his views publicly, leading to misinterpretations of his SEC filings, which in turn caused market misjudgments and controversies. Now he has finally 'unbound' himself, ready to clearly articulate his true views all at once.

In summary:
Burry has not exited the market but has changed his approach, continuing to warn about an AI bubble that he believes is already starting to replicate the story of 2000. The greater the market frenzy, the sharper his voice will become. #加密市场观察

Brothers, this message is really worth paying attention to today: Mary Daly, the president of the San Francisco Fed who has always been seen as a "close ally of Powell," suddenly made a public statement—she supports an interest rate cut in December. And the reason is not inflation, but that the job market is becoming fragile and could suddenly break apart.

Daly said it very frankly: the current labor market is "fragile enough to potentially experience non-linear changes." What does that mean? It means that on the surface, everything seems calm, but as soon as companies make a little extra layoff or output worsens slightly, the entire employment structure could deteriorate rapidly—and once it collapses, it can't be fixed.

In contrast, she believes the risk of a second wave of inflation is not high, mainly because the cost increase brought about by tariffs is milder than expected. This is why she sides with the "should cut" camp. It's worth noting that Daly rarely publicly disagrees with Powell; her statement this time indicates that there are indeed significant internal divisions.

Currently, the entire FOMC is clearly divided:
On one side are people like Daly and Williams who are worried about employment risks;
On the other side are hawks who are concerned about expanding inflation and oppose further interest rate cuts.

CME's interest rate futures have already reacted—the probability of a rate cut in December has suddenly soared, just after Williams said last Friday that "there is room for rate cuts in the short term," causing market expectations to instantly reverse.

More critically: Daly warned that the Federal Reserve cannot refrain from cutting now out of fear of needing to raise rates back next year. "I am not willing to assume that we will be helpless next year." She even emphasized that the differences of opinion now within the Fed are not chaos, but because the situation itself is full of uncertainty.

In plain terms: the economy is now at a crossroads, and the Federal Reserve must choose between "error-prone rate cuts" and "error-prone no cuts."

And Daly's stance is—
Not cutting now poses a greater risk.

In the coming month, market volatility will only increase. Be prepared.
$PARTI $ETH $DOGE #加密市场回调 #降息期待
#美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析

Construction! Construction! Construction! The community has always been! #马斯克小奶狗

🔥 Brothers, the amount of information in this chart is explosive! The FOMC's December 'official sentiment report' has clearly told us: the market will be led by central bank sentiment going forward.

First, the core — interest rate cut expectations are recovering, but the officials' disagreements are unprecedentedly large!
In the chart, we can see that several hawkish officials still emphasize that inflation is 'sticky' and 'cannot be loosened too early', especially key voters like Bostic and Daly, who maintain a firm tone; on the other hand, some officials are beginning to acknowledge the slowing economic growth and tightening financial conditions, expressing concern about the risks of excessive tightening.

What does this disagreement signify?
👉 A typical 'end of the rate hike cycle characteristic'!
When sharp divisions emerge among decision-makers, it often indicates that the turning point in monetary policy is approaching, and market volatility will react in advance.

Now, let's look at the data at the bottom of the chart:
📉 The market's interest rate expectations curve for 2025 is rebounding after a decline, indicating that traders are re-betting on interest rate cuts.
📊 The dot plot estimates also show that 'the last rate hike is in the past' is almost a consensus, the key is the pace of rate cuts!

Even more stimulating is the statistical pie chart on the right:
🟢 The proportion of doves is rising, although hawkish voices still occupy a high position, the direction is softening.
What does this mean for risk assets?
👉 As soon as one or two important officials ease their stance, the market will immediately ignite risk appetite.

Considering the current sentiment in the crypto circle:
⚡ BTC's correlation with the broader market is strengthening
⚡ Crypto liquidity is clearly warming up
⚡ Fed's pivot expectations = the strongest catalyst

In summary:
📌 Policy divergence = market opportunity.
📌 The December interest rate meeting is not just a rate decision, it is the last emotional trigger point of the year.

What about the market in the second half of the month?
Brothers, **the script has already been written, it just depends on who blinks first at the Federal Reserve!** 🔥$ZEC $TNSR $ETH #美联储何时降息？ #ETH巨鲸增持

Recently, the Federal Reserve announced: starting from December 1, it will stop its balance sheet reduction (QT) operations. In other words, the practice of allowing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities to mature without reinvestment, thereby withdrawing liquidity from the financial system, will temporarily come to an end.

This policy shift may seem like a technical adjustment, but it could carry significant signals for the market, especially for cryptocurrencies and risk assets. First, the cessation of balance sheet reduction means that the Federal Reserve will no longer actively withdraw liquidity from the system; under the 'ample reserves' regime, this change indicates that the market may welcome a more accommodative funding environment. Several institutions have also pointed out that this conveys the message of 'liquidity constraint easing' to the market. Second, from the perspective of interest rates and asset valuations: with the halt of balance sheet reduction and interest rates still in a relatively high range, risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) may gain some valuation support. Meanwhile, the dollar and its related assets may face certain pressure.

However, caution should also be maintained. Stopping balance sheet reduction does not equate to initiating a new round of large-scale 'quantitative easing' (QE). The Federal Reserve's statement emphasizes that this move is more about preventing cracks in short-term market liquidity rather than actively expanding the balance sheet. Additionally, inflation remains above target, and there is still uncertainty in the banking system and money markets, so the risk of a policy inflection point still exists.

From the perspective of traders, this could be a macro background worth paying attention to: if the funding environment begins to loosen slightly, the crypto market may welcome a favorable 'tailwind' opportunity. But this is not a signal to 'immediately increase positions'; rather, it is a reminder: you can start to shift towards scenarios of 'assuming liquidity improves and risk appetite rises,' while continuing to monitor key data such as short-term interest rates, the dollar index, reserve balances, and regulatory policy changes.

In summary, the Federal Reserve's halt of balance sheet reduction is a potential positive signal for the market, but it should still be approached with caution. As participants in the crypto market, it is advisable to view this as a background of 'improvement in conditions but needing data support,' rather than being blindly optimistic. #比特币波动性 #停止缩表 #美联储重启降息步伐
$ZEC
$TNSR