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Before $ASTER , we were discussing aster, which is currently consolidating at a high rebound level. However, there is a significant increase in short positions. This small rebound is likely coming to an end. If you haven't entered a short position before, this could be a good opportunity to consider taking a position with a stop-loss above 1.1. From a data perspective, the rebound is already quite weak. Friends who shorted around 1.4 should also consider rolling over their positions, and for the rolled-over portion, it's fine to look for resistance levels above 1.1 to set stop-losses.

$PIPPIN (The first time passed 0.22 without hitting the stop loss, but when it passed again, it did hit the stop loss, let's observe a bit more) The logic shared by the community friends makes a lot of sense to me, the pippin's stronghold may be running out of ammunition, and there are signs of secretly withdrawing contract positions. Before, everyone was advised not to short pippin, but now I think it’s okay to try a small position to touch the top, with a stop loss at 0.22 which is less than 10% stop loss, a small position stop loss won't have a big impact.

$ASTER aster has been consistently telling everyone not to try to catch the bottom. On November 19, when the highest point was around 1.4 and sentiment was at its best, I posted saying that aster is still in a downtrend and can be shorted. Later, I also posted about aster to remind everyone not to blindly catch the bottom.
This coin has high popularity and a large market cap, and the whales won't be so kind as to let so many retail investors make money. Currently, it has dropped below 1 again, but the whales have basically not seen any capital flow back; they are still slowly opening short positions and selling spot. There might be a small rebound along with the market, but do not try to catch the bottom.
0.6 is only the first phase profit target for short positions, not because I think 0.6 is the bottom, but that there might be a rebound around that price level, not a reversal. The bigger rebound for this coin will surely not be now, but on some day when everyone is quite desperate about it. Do not blindly catch the bottom with the mindset that it's okay to hold long-term; if it drops to 0.3, 0.2, or even 0.1, will you still have the courage to add to your position? If it later pulls back to 0.5, perhaps it will be a strong rally, but will it help you break even now that you are trying to catch the bottom..

$TRADOOR Before sleeping, the square synchronized with everyone, moving the stop loss to around 4.85, approximately 10% loss, I think using 10% of the position for speculative trading is completely acceptable.
Lions never establish a forever profitable persona, only discuss trading logic. Old friends may know that in the last two weeks, I have been recommending more counterfeit short positions. Yesterday, I shared a post about the counterfeit short position I currently hold. But even though I am bearish now, I don't regret not shorting traddoor or missing the opportunity to short traddoor. My post at the time also shared the logic, which was purely about touching the top and betting on the main force's profit-taking position. This kind of short-selling makes it difficult to even set a stop loss. Without a stop loss, it’s very easy for this counterfeit main force to wipe out the short sellers (examples like coai tnsr beat). So, it's not regrettable if you can't take this kind of short position. Then I also mentioned in the community and comment section of the post that chasing after the rise is like speculative trading. If there is position management and stop loss expectations, it’s a small position aiming for big gains; compared to the risk of losing everything, a 10% loss is really not that bad.
Last night, I also supplemented in the square that the concentration of holdings in this coin is very high. Currently, with this drop, I tend to gather the net instead of trying to catch the bottom. This basically indicates that this market has ended, and the main force has taken profits. Now it has switched to the distribution phase. As for shorting, the current position's cost performance is poor and not recommended. Attention can be turned to other coins.

tradoor I moved the loss to 4.85, and I noticed that the small level of sol is relatively weak. To prevent the main market from being unstable at night and experiencing fluctuations, tradoor's庄 directly sells off. This庄 has a high concentration of spot holdings, so selling here also yields a considerable profit.
This long position gambles on a shallow loss, while the other counterfeit short positions opened gradually in the past period can be held comfortably, resulting in overall pressure being relatively low.

$TRADOOR Don't stubbornly go against this type of coin, the main force's current contract positions are basically all long positions. There has been a net inflow of 25 million in just 24 hours, and the total position volume is only 25 million. In today's rapid decline, there were no obvious long position liquidations; instead, there was a quick rebound. Currently, 70% of the market is shorting it, while the market maker's base position is all long, which essentially means they are likely to target these short sellers.

I have previously recommended so many altcoins that are not more stable than this one 😂 and they have all basically dropped by 30%-60%. Don't stubbornly rush to go against the market makers; this trader still has funds. Given that their base position is sufficiently long, although they still have the possibility of frequent fluctuations, using 1x leverage with an ant-sized position to go long is much less risky than anxiously trying to short at the top. It's normal to fear heights; indeed, the price is high and the risk is great, but I really do not recommend trying to short at the top.

$WLFI Many of the counterfeit stocks I recommended in the past have dropped significantly. In comparison, the wlfi that I recommended just a few days ago still offers good value and hasn't dropped much. I also just got into wlfi a couple of days ago, and the stop loss is relatively simple.
This stock, which is currently floating in the air, shows that the main force has not opened many long positions, but rather has opened small short positions. At the same time, with a large market capitalization and significant selling pressure, it is considered a decent short stock, and the risk is not particularly high.

Recently, everyone might have noticed that in the past two to three weeks, the counterfeit tokens I've publicly posted about, apart from being bullish on beat and tnsr (I only took a long position on beat on the same day), are mostly short positions on counterfeits. The counterfeits in the first image are basically the short positions I've recommended in my posts or live streams, with a small portion being followed up by the community. The counterfeits in recent weeks have mostly been a short-term long and long-term short strategy.
Basically, my approach to shorting counterfeits is to use a leverage of one times and put in several thousand dollars like this. The expectation for shorting is not to take too large a position. Adjusting to the maximum leverage here is also to facilitate long-term bearish positions for tokens like aster that require rolling positions.
This is also to validate my previous judgment in the second image, that the market can only have a relatively effective rebound if it plunges straight down. Let's see if this can be validated in a few months, taking it step by step. Including last week, after the market started to rebound, many strong counterfeits like zec began to correct instead. In fact, seasoned investors will know that this means the market has not yet dropped to its proper position. The market bottoming generally requires most counterfeits to take a sharp plunge, and many large-cap counterfeits and the numerous short positions being increased in the dead cat bounce scenario are abnormal.
Then, when the market will bottom out, it might depend on whether it can rapidly decline over the next few days. If it declines rapidly again for a few days, there might be signs of a rebound. At that time, we will observe and switch between short-term long and short strategies, and at the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, we will see if there are opportunities for long-term spot entries.
$BTC

$MMT mmt is also a dead cat bounce clone that has been publicly followed in the square. It has currently dropped 50% since the first time I shared it in my post. Last weekend, I also recommended quite a few dead cat bounce clone short positions in the square and during live streaming, so there's really no need for everyone to suffer in the most difficult positions like pippin.
When it comes to clones, it's essential to pay attention to the intentions of the main funds. Choosing not to participate when the intentions are unclear is the wisest choice, while actively participating when the intentions are obvious will be much more comfortable overall. Just like not long ago when everyone wanted to short zec, I also recommended that instead of shorting zec, it would be better to short dash, which has a clear increase in short positions from the main funds. Although zec has dropped now, the previous operators still haven't finished unloading their goods, and repeatedly pushing the top is definitely more torturous than dash.

$WLFI wlfi is considered a decent short position. Basically, the main force hasn't increased their long positions during the oscillation and upward movement. Recently, the project team has been saying they would release good news, and I am still waiting for that news to create a wave for a good short position.
It is also possible to enter now; using yesterday's daily high as a stop loss is quite shallow for a scam coin. I didn't include wlfi in my short positions earlier mainly because I saw them buying promotional articles, and I was afraid they were brewing a small dead cat bounce.
I've been tracking it for a few days, and it has been slowly rising. I feel that there might be some good news released after a while, followed by a drop, and then a pullback. However, this pullback may struggle to break yesterday's daily high. The reason we can enter now is that the stop loss is easy to manage, especially since the market has completed a rebound.
If it breaks above yesterday's daily high, there is no need to rush; just observe it for a bit. It might slightly elevate to a new platform, and then we can observe for a while before continuing to look for positions.

$PIPPIN Last time we talked about pippin, it was at a position where both bulls and bears could be wiped out. We can see how the market moves after posting, and how many retail investors can benefit from it. Anyway, I wouldn't dare to operate with this coin at this position; I would still choose to trade with coins that I have a better grasp of.
Many people are still asking about this coin; from the data, it seems that there is still a certain amount of long positions left in pippin that haven't been closed. Plus, with so many retail investors shorting, the main forces might still push for a short squeeze while unloading during the process, so now is not a good time for us to short. If we go long, this fund is also not fond of letting retail investors profit at the expense of others. This position is basically waiting for a dual explosion of bulls and bears, so my advice regarding pippin is to wait and see for a bit longer. We don't have to be fixated on this coin; I have recently recommended many coins with higher safety and stronger trading signals.

$MON The main force of mon should be the newly listed items, and the main force is still adding many positions here. Currently, there are slowly some long positions entering. I thought it should be viewed as a new currency, so we can wait and see the situation and observe for a while until the newly added liquidity stabilizes.

$MON From the data, the main force's willingness to push up on Monday is not very strong. After officially launching the contract yesterday and experiencing a certain rebound, the main force did not actually increase long positions; instead, a small number of short positions are still dominating (the net inflow value is still negative). It looks like it has dropped a lot here, but it probably hasn't reached the bottom yet. The high activity in the past few days may lead to another rebound, but it's difficult to expect a significant rise from this point.

$ASTER aster The good news is all out, and cb is also up, but the simplest principle is that the operators won't let so many retail investors make money. Including after it was raised to 1.4, I also posted that the operators' own short positions have not stopped increasing, and it is clear that there is still a lot of room to go down. I still hope everyone does not blindly try to catch the bottom.

$PIPPIN pippin in this situation cannot be left empty casually, as the main players have just entered a large number of long positions while retail investors are already shorting. At this position, it is very difficult for retail investors to profit from shorting.

Just to add, trading is not like a diode; it doesn't mean that if a coin can't be shorted, it must be long. Clearly, at this position, this coin is waiting for a double kill of long and short positions, and there's no need to take the risk of trying to profit from it. A few days ago, during the live broadcast and in the forum posts, several altcoins that can be shorted were recommended. There's no need for everyone to get caught up in the idea of doing this pippin right now.

In the past two days, a collection of counterfeit dead cat bounces has emerged. The main forces are clearly distinguishing between real and fake data. Don't fantasize about having so many tnrs; even if there is a next tnrs, the data will remind everyone to notice it.
$AIA $0G

$MMT true or false, the data shows it all, how can there be so much tnrs, more like a dead cat bounce, blindly chasing will lead to failure, it's better to wait for the main force to accelerate and sell a bit short.

$MMT
The mmt bottom warehouse is dominated by short positions, and with such a large increase in small levels and only a little net inflow, it is basically just part of both long and short positions without much new long positions entering. This kind of rise cannot be chased easily and can easily be thrown off, and now it is close to the dense long position entrapment zone at 0.55-0.6.

Friends who listened to my live broadcast yesterday talking about tnrs and beat should have noticed that I mentioned, 'In the short term, I still see a bearish outlook on the market; I am shorting sol,' and also my bold prediction this Tuesday to see if it holds true three months later.

Currently, this spike is not suitable for left-side bottom fishing, so there's no need to rush. As shown in Picture 1, I’m going to take a nap to recharge; see you at the live broadcast around 9 or 10 tonight~
$SOL #加密市场观察