必胜操盘手

I'm back, everyone. Future trend judgment and key point suggestions. The price of ETH has dropped significantly from the previous 3,099 to the 2,849-2,856 range, a decline of about 5.19%, and market sentiment has clearly turned bearish. In-depth analysis of technical indicators, key observations: the price has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band, is in an extreme oversold state, and breaking below the lower band usually indicates short-term rebound opportunities, but the medium-term trend has turned bearish.
2. MACD indicator - Strong bearish signal
3. RSI indicator - Severe oversold trend judgment
Short-term trend (1-3 days) strong oversold rebound expectation,
· Multiple indicators show extreme oversold, high probability of technical rebound

December 1: Arthur Hayes: The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening policy will stop on December 1, and the support level for Bitcoin at $80,000 will hold.
· Aster Stage 3 airdrop query will open on December 1.
· dYdX plans to implement a one-month pilot program for clearing fee refunds starting December 1.
· GiggleFund: Starting from December 1, each GIGGLE transaction on Binance will reduce the token supply.
December 2
· Aztec will launch its token sale on December 2, with a valuation of $350 million.
December 3
· Dark pool DEX HumidiFi confirms its token will be released through Jupiter on December 3.
December 4

Do you often find that when you buy, the price drops, and when you sell, it soars? Or do you find yourself heavily invested when there is a sharp drop? The problem may lie in position management.
Today I will share my 'pyramid-style averaging method', which is very simple:
1. Step one: Set a target. Choose a project that you are optimistic about in the long term, such as BTC.
2. Step two: Allocate funds. Divide the total amount of money you plan to invest in this coin into 4 parts (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%).
3. Step three: Execute.
· When the price reaches your first desired price point, invest 10%.
· If the price drops by 10%, invest 20%.

Now your account suddenly has 100,000 U, and you are required to invest it all in a cryptocurrency (spot) within a month. Which one would you choose? I would choose $BNB. The reason is simple:
1. Platform value capture: Binance is the absolute leader in the industry, and BNB is the core of its ecosystem's value. Whether it's trading fee discounts, Launchpool mining, or future application scenarios, BNB is the 'king of all currencies' and the most stable Beta.
2. Deflation protection: Every quarter's burn creates value for all holders, this is genuine deflation.
3. Strong resilience: During significant market downturns, BNB often shows stronger resilience.

Are you also like this? Refreshing the price every 5 minutes. Excited when in profit, anxious when in loss, completely influenced by the candlestick chart. Doubting life when the price drops, feeling like a stock god when it rises.
If you have fallen into any of the above points, it means you have become a slave to your emotions. I was once the same, until I understood this truth: the market is always right; what's wrong is your expectations and emotions.
How to cultivate into a 'heartless trading machine'?
1. Make a plan, say goodbye to impulse
Before trading, write down in black and white: reasons for buying, target price, stop-loss price. Then, hand it over to the market. Do not make any impromptu decisions during trading.

We divide the market into three cycles: short, medium, and long to examine.
1. Short-term minute chart: The oversold rebound signal is strong; price and Bollinger Bands: The price has reached and even slightly penetrated the lower Bollinger Band at 2987. In a normal market environment, this is a classic short-term 'return to mean' signal, with technical demand for the price to rebound to the middle band (3024) or even the upper band (3060). In the short term, the market has 'stopped falling,' and a rebound is imminent. The first target is at 3024, with stronger resistance at 3060.
2. From the hourly chart, the bearish trend dominates the price and the Bollinger Bands; the price is running below the middle band (3065), which is a clear sign of a bearish medium-term trend. The entire Bollinger Band channel is tilted downwards, with the upper band reaching 3485 and the lower band at 2646, indicating a huge medium-term volatility range but a downward shift in the center of gravity. The medium-term trend remains downward. Any short-term rebound that fails to effectively break through and stabilize above 3065, this key watershed, is regarded as a 'dead cat bounce' in the downward trend.

Maji's 25x Ethereum long position was directly kicked out by the market. Since the collapse starting from 1011, he has been liquidated 145 times, with total losses exceeding 20 million USD. This is no longer a drama, this is a real-life story of the cryptocurrency world. Let me explain how he got blown up this time. Initially, he went long at 3893, but as the price kept dropping, he averaged down to 2649. Eventually, it turned into an obsession, a fantasy of needing to recover. However, the trend of Ethereum has been plummeting from 4957, a waterfall-like decline. No matter how much he averaged down, it was against the market, swimming upstream against the flood. But the market doesn't care who you are; it will treat your money as liquidity fuel. In the end, his position at 2788 was wiped out, with a single loss of over 30,000 USD. Looking at his account, the leverage usage rate was 175% with forty-three times leverage, resulting in a loss of 2.52 million USD in a week. This is not trading; this is a form of self-destruction. Moreover, if you look closely, the difference between everyone and the liquidated people might just be one leverage. Why do so many people repeatedly get liquidated with leverage? The reason is simple: initially, everyone thinks leverage is a tool for amplifying profits, but until liquidation, they realize it is actually an accelerator for amplifying losses. With 25x leverage, as long as there's a 4% fluctuation, liquidation is possible, while a 10% daily fluctuation in cryptocurrency is common. The more dangerous the market, the more people like to use high leverage. The more they lose, the more they want to average down, the deeper they go, and the harder it is to come back. Many people say averaging down to reduce the average cost is a technique, but essentially it's just an illusion. You want to change the market's direction with your own will, but the market will never reverse because of your persistence; at least, it will take away your remaining capital because of your obsession. Those who can survive in leverage for a long time treat it as a precision strike tool, not a lifeline. They only dare to use leverage in situations with high certainty, taking action only when the bottom structure is clear, cutting losses as soon as they hit, without sentiment. The profits are based on probability, not self-esteem. However, ordinary people are most likely to open the largest leverage in the most dangerous places, to hold on stubbornly when they should cut losses, and to be carried away by emotions when they should be clear-headed. Have you ever done this? Is there a position you are still holding onto? Here’s a realistic reminder: surviving is more important than anything else. If you currently have a high-leverage position, and your margin usage rate has skyrocketed, you must stabilize first, reduce your positions, and pull yourself out from liquidation; you must survive first to have the right to talk about making money. In the cryptocurrency world, it’s always the living who share the spoils, while the dead are directly buried. Maji's losses are not just money; it's his ignorance of the trend, his misunderstanding of leverage, and his arrogance about the market. I'm telling you real talk, I hope you don't repeat his path.

The current resistance level is at the 24-hour high of 3,070.00 (recent strong resistance), the support level is at the 24-hour low of 2,983.8, and the recent low is approximately 2,865.1. The current price has fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and I personally believe this is an important bearish signal. In terms of trend and position analysis, the price formed a clear downward trend after reaching a high of 3,141.66. The current price is testing a key support cluster: the lower band of the Bollinger Bands (2,991.99) and the 24-hour low (2,983.81), which is a significant area. From the perspective of Bollinger Bands analysis, the price has been falling from near the upper band and has now moved below the middle band, approaching the lower band. This is a typical characteristic of a bearish trend.

The Ethereum daily chart shows a strong oscillating upward trend, with three consecutive days of positive closing and breaking through the key resistance level of $3000. From a technical perspective, the price has broken through the dual pressure zone of $2980-$3030, forming a short-term upward channel. Key technical indicators show: the MACD indicator has shown positive changes, with the red bars continuing to expand after a golden cross, but the DIF value is still below the zero axis (-214), reflecting that the medium-term momentum still needs to be repaired. It is noteworthy that the MACD histogram has turned positive at 28.0902, marking the first bullish momentum signal in recent times, suggesting that potential buying pressure is accumulating.

For long-term investors:
The current price level ($3000-$3100) provides a good opportunity for long-term investors to build positions gradually. It is recommended to use a dollar-cost averaging strategy, buying gradually below $3,000, with a target price of $7,000-$10,000 (1-2 years). Position allocation should be controlled at 30-40% of the cryptocurrency portfolio.
For medium-term investors: Pay close attention to the two key price levels of $3,000 and $3,900. If it breaks above $3,900, you can increase your position to 50%, targeting $5,000-$6,000. If it falls below $3,000, reduce your position to below 20% and wait for opportunities around $2,500.
For short-term investors: You can try going long with a small position in the range of $2,900-$3,000, with a stop loss at $2,800 and a target of $3,500-$3,800. Strictly control your position to not exceed 20% to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

On November 26, 2025, Ethereum showed a strong oscillating trend, with intense short-term competition between bulls and bears, and differing long-term trends. Here is the specific market analysis: 1. Daily price performance: The opening price of Ethereum was $2959.36, the highest price was $2984, the lowest price was $2945.60, and the closing price was $2968.69, with a trading volume of 74,300, which is a significant decrease compared to the previous day's trading volume. The price slightly increased from the previous day, rising to around $2985 in the morning before facing resistance and correcting, then fluctuating back and forth within a small range. 2. Technical analysis: On the daily chart, there were two consecutive days of gains, breaking the previous high of $2953, forming a short-term ascending channel. The MACD green bars continued to shorten, indicating a weakening of downward momentum, but the daily EMA120 (3150) is a long-term resistance. The 4-hour MACD formed a golden cross pattern, with the price stabilizing above EMA7 and EMA30, with support at the intersection of EMA30 and EMA15 at 2870, and resistance at the 60 trend line at 2960. The previous attempt to break through the upper Bollinger Band at 2965 failed, and further upward attempts cannot be ruled out. Additionally, the 4-hour moving average system is highly clustered, and the Bollinger Band width has reached a monthly low, indicating that a trend reversal is approaching.