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Everyone, last time we discussed whale tracking and quantitative models; today we jump straight to the ultimate content—how to use on-chain data to predict black swans and build a 'anti-fragile' profit system with options strategies! This method helped me avoid the flash crash on May 19, the FTX collapse, and even the 30% plunge in September this year; the core logic is summed up in one sentence: while others panic, you have already set up your defenses in advance!
1. The On-Chain Precursors of Black Swans: Three Deadly Signals
Black swans do not appear without warning; on-chain data has long revealed the intentions of the main players!
Exchange whale deposits surge:
When on-chain monitoring detects over 100,000 ETH deposited in a single day into platforms like Coinbase, Binance, and the deposit addresses are mostly 'smart money' wallets, it indicates that selling pressure is about to arrive.

As a cryptocurrency enthusiast with years of experience in the market, I clearly feel the conflicting signals currently being conveyed by the Ethereum market: the short-term price struggles around $3200, while on-chain data shows that institutions are quietly accumulating. This divergence makes me realize that we might be on the eve of the next significant price fluctuation.
Market sentiment is currently in confusion, but the true winners often position themselves when others hesitate. Today, I will take you deep into the latest developments of Ethereum, revealing those key signals that are easily overlooked.
01 Market Status: Key Nodes of Bull-Bear Game

Family, let's get straight to the hard facts—how to integrate on-chain whale data into quantitative models to achieve excess returns that crush the market? This content may disrupt many people's cake, so it's recommended to save it for later!
1. Core Logic: Why is 'Whale + Quant' a killer combination?
The Alpha value of whale data
On-chain operations of whale addresses (such as large transfers, exchange deposits/withdrawals) are leading indicators of market sentiment, reflecting capital intent faster than candlestick charts.
For example: when multiple whale addresses simultaneously withdraw ETH from exchanges, and the on-chain balance concentration increases, it usually indicates a stage of accumulation.

🔥 Whale Wallet Tracking Technique: Unveiling the layout secrets of 'smart money' on-chain!
Family, today let's get straight to the point—breaking down how to capture the movements of whales through on-chain data, predicting market surges in advance! Blockchain is a transparent battleground, and every move of the whales is exposed in the public ledger. Learning to track them is equivalent to holding the 'trump card' of the main capital! Here is the practical guide, save it and review it repeatedly!
1. Who is the whale? Why is it crucial?
Whales are individuals or institutions that hold a large amount of cryptocurrency assets (such as over 1% of Bitcoin's circulation), and their buying and selling can directly influence the market.

As an analyst who watches the market for 18 hours a day and has avoided three bear markets, I must bang the table to tell you: now is not the time to study 'whether it can rise', but rather the life-and-death moment of 'how not to get liquidated'! Look at this chart, every indicator is screaming 'danger'!
Current technical situation: every detail is marked with 'trap'
The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to a suffocating degree (3112-3186), which is the oppressive calm before the storm. History has proven countless times that such extreme contractions are often followed by violent breakthroughs of more than 5% in a single day!
The 'death cross' of moving averages is forming: EMA(7) at 3144.28 and EMA(30) at 3148.18 are almost merging, MA(7) at 3148.46 and MA(30) at 3160.87 are about to cross down. Remember: when all moving averages converge and then diverge downwards, it's the start of the waterfall!

Family, today's news is simply a tale of two extremes! On one side, the Fusaka upgrade of ETH ignites on-chain activity, while on the other, whales are frantically selling off, and there's a slight outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs... Market sentiment feels like a roller coaster, but the true players always sniff out opportunities amid the chaos! Here’s my hardcore interpretation, let’s get straight to the point:
⚠️ The current three major pits, stepping into any one could lead to liquidation!​
Whale sell-off hidden danger: On-chain data shows that ancient whales sold 7,000 ETH within a month, and some big players cleared out WBTC before turning to dump ETH! These 'OG players' have a cost base that's shockingly low, selling pressure may continue until the end of the year, and chasing highs in the short term is just handing over your head.

Basic Concepts
1. Blockchain - A public ledger that records all transactions.
2. Bitcoin - The pioneer of digital currency, born in 2009.
3. Ethereum - A platform for developing smart contracts and dApps.
4. Smart Contract - A contract that executes automatically in code.
5. Token - A digital asset or right on the blockchain.
6. DApp - Decentralized Application.
7. DeFi - Decentralized Financial Services.
8. Cryptocurrency Wallet - A tool for storing and managing digital currencies.
9. Public Key & Private Key - The key pair that protects assets.
10. Address - The account address for sending and receiving currency.

This is not a piece of 'motivational speech' or 'theoretical tutorial', but rather the rolling strategy I tested with 10 accounts over the past 3 months, with the highest monthly return of 2100%.
But the liquidation rate exceeds 80%.
If you only want to follow the trades mindlessly, you can close the page now:
But if you are willing to strictly execute the strategy, you might become one of the 20% survivors.
Core logic: the 'compound bomb' of rolling positions
The essence of rolling positions is not 'always increasing positions', but 'increasing positions with profits and cutting losses', using the compound effect + letting profits run. However, 90% of people die in these 3 pitfalls:
1. Profit doesn't dare to increase positions (missed the explosive market)

In recent years, with the rise of the digital currency market, various cryptocurrencies represented by Bitcoin have emerged like mushrooms after rain, and their rollercoaster-like trends have attracted the attention of the entire market, drawing many investors into the crypto circle. Among these investors, some have made a fortune, while others have lost everything. Therefore, trading skills are particularly important for investors. So, how can one quickly learn to trade cryptocurrencies? Below, I will explain in detail how to quickly learn to trade cryptocurrencies. I hope that through this article, investors can master trading skills.

After ten years of ups and downs in the cryptocurrency world, I started with an initial capital of 68,000 I earned from my job, and now I have accumulated over 40 million in wealth. I focus on spot trading and keep my distance from contracts. Although I haven’t reached billionaire status starting with ten thousand like some legends, I already feel deeply satisfied, moving forward steadily, silently hoping that my account can cross the 100 million mark by the end of the year, paving the way for earning more capital next year.
On the journey in the cryptocurrency world, maintaining a calm mindset is crucial. In the face of the market's drastic fluctuations, I do not let anxiety dictate my emotions during downturns, nor do I lose myself in fleeting euphoria during upswings, knowing well that securing profits brings peace. Looking back, when I first entered the cryptocurrency space, I often lost sleep due to worries, waking up in the middle of the night was a norm. Now, I have learned to remain indifferent.

It's easier to lose money in the cryptocurrency world, and this is a lesson I learned with real money. Four years ago, I was a 'technical trader' staying up late to monitor the market, studying various indicators like K-line, MACD, and RSI. The result was a cycle of gains and losses, with my account balance hardly changing and even facing liquidation a few times. Until I met an old trader who told me: the simpler you trade cryptocurrency, the better.
In my opinion, the key to trading lies in maintaining a good mindset, while mastering the technical aspects is secondary. This calmness and composure may be the secret to my success in the cryptocurrency world.

In the first few years of trading, like many others, I stayed up late every day watching the markets, chasing trends, and lost sleep over my losses. Later, I gritted my teeth and stuck to a simple method, surprisingly managing to survive, and slowly started to stabilize my profits.
Looking back now, this method, although simple, is effective: 'If I do not see the familiar signals, I will not act!'
It's better to miss a market opportunity than to place random trades.
By following this iron rule, I can now stabilize my annual returns at over 50%, and I no longer have to rely on luck to survive.
Here are some risk management tips for beginners, based on my own experiences from trading:

A few days ago, I came across a post from a crypto newbie: "I started with 5,000 yuan and opened a 10x leverage contract, and made 20,000 yuan in three days. This money is too easy to make!" The comments section was filled with cheers of "please teach me how to make money," but I remembered Lao Zhang, whom I met last year—he once made 2 million yuan from 100,000 yuan through contracts, but then lost it all after being liquidated two weeks later. In the end, he squatted at the entrance of the exchange, smoked half a pack of cigarettes, and said: "This thing is not about making quick money, it's about losing your life."
In this article, I don't want to simply criticize futures contracts as "harmful," but rather to tear away the "get-rich-quick" allure and discuss why so many people knowingly engage in futures trading. What role do they actually play in the cryptocurrency ecosystem? Should ordinary people get involved?

In recent years, with the rapid development of the digital currency market, trading cryptocurrencies has become a highly regarded investment method. Leverage and contract trading have been widely used in the process of trading cryptocurrencies, each having its own advantages and risks. So, how is the return on cryptocurrency contract leverage calculated? The following will provide a detailed introduction to the calculation method of contract leverage.
How to calculate the returns of contract leverage? How many times is contract leverage the safest? Do people generally use leverage or contracts for trading cryptocurrencies? Is doing contracts the same as using leverage? Contract leverage has become an important tool with the development of cryptocurrencies, providing investors with the ability to significantly increase their profit potential. This technique allows investors to take on larger positions while only investing a small portion of the total value, thereby amplifying potential gains and losses. However, contract leverage itself also carries significant risks, so it is very important for investors to understand how to calculate the returns of contract leverage before engaging in it. According to the information, the return calculation formula is: Return = (Market Price Change / Entry Price) * Contract Value * Number of Contracts. Below, Kueige will explain in detail.

1. Avoid full investment
How should funds be allocated? Fund allocation should be understood from two levels:
Firstly, from the perspective of risk, understanding fund allocation starts with clarifying how much loss our account can or is prepared to bear. This is the thinking basis for our fund allocation. Once this total amount is determined, we should consider how many times we need to be willing to accept losses to the market if we continuously fail in the market.
Personally, I think: the riskiest method should also be done in three stages. That is to say, you should give yourself at least three chances. For example, if the total account fund is 200,000, the client allows you to lose a maximum of 20%, which is 40,000, then I suggest your riskiest loss plan is: the first time 10,000, the second time 10,000, and the third time 20,000. I believe this loss plan still has a certain degree of rationality. Because if you get it right once out of three times, you can make a profit or at least continue to survive in the market. Not being kicked out of the market itself is a kind of success, giving you a chance to win.

If your account balance is less than 1 million and you want to profit in the cryptocurrency market in the short term, there is a tried-and-true 'MACD trading method' that is simple and practical, making it easy for retail investors to get started. Don't worry about not being able to learn it; I'm not a god, just someone who has mastered the method. Once you learn it, pay attention during trading, and you might earn an extra 3 to 10 points every day.
Chen Xi shares a set of practical strategies from years of experience, with an average win rate of 80%, which is rare in the cryptocurrency market. The MACD trading method is essential for short-term fluctuations and is also applicable to contracts, with monthly profits reaching 30%-50%.
Market Meaning:
1. Double Moving Averages
Position: Bullish above the 0 axis, bearish below; crossing above and below the 0 axis determines the overall trend.

1: Interpretation of the concept of rolling warehouse
1. The art of capital turnover
Rolling warehouse, simply put, is when investors use their existing digital currency assets to repeatedly buy and sell across different contracts and time periods, aiming to profit from price differences. This operation method is similar to 'day trading' in traditional financial markets, except that in the cryptocurrency circle, the frequency is higher, the risks are greater, and it tests investors' precise grasp of market trends.
2. The double-edged sword of leverage
Rolling warehouse is often accompanied by the use of high leverage. Investors use leverage to magnify large transactions with a small amount of capital, thereby amplifying returns. However, leverage is like a magnifying glass; it can double profits instantly but can also lead to significant losses. Therefore, rolling warehouse operators must remain vigilant and treat every transaction with caution.

1. Popular coins in a bull market fall the fastest
Coins that are heavily speculated, especially those with severe control over their supply, often burst their bubbles quickly. The more a coin attracts a large number of retail investors chasing after it, the greater the risk. It's like blowing up a balloon; the bigger it gets, the faster it pops. Popular coins in a bull market are often the favorites of short-term speculators, but they are also the traps that can lead to complete losses.
Suggestion: Do not blindly chase after rising prices, especially for those coins that have surged significantly in a short period, stay calm, and avoid becoming a 'bag holder'.
2. The tactics of altcoins are mostly similar. The usual strategy for altcoins is to heavily sell first, create panic, then slowly raise the price to attract retail investors, and finally continue to harvest in a different way. This tactic has proven effective repeatedly, and newbies can easily get 'cut'. Suggestion: For altcoins, be mentally prepared, do not be misled by short-term gains, and do not easily over-invest.

As a newcomer in the cryptocurrency world, what should you pay attention to while trading? This year, the cryptocurrency market has improved, and many beginners are starting to engage in cryptocurrency. However, the cryptocurrency market is not simple; if you do not understand it well, it is easy to lose everything. So, how should newcomers participate in cryptocurrency investment? Are there any important points for beginners in trading cryptocurrency? Below, we'll provide a detailed introduction to the precautions for beginners in cryptocurrency trading!
Frequent losses and being trapped, have you found the underlying reason?
No matter how many points are added, it can be reasonably solved. Choose the appropriate entry point to make up for losses and turn passive into active.

1000 is enough, it's not that impressive, there might be experts, but it's basically luck.
I can only speak for myself, I entered the market in 2019 with a principal of 6, and after about a year, it grew to 100.
I only stepped into A8 by the end of 2022.
I am a full-time cryptocurrency trader, and I have seized many opportunities, but what about others?
I think the opportunities in the cryptocurrency world are fair for everyone, but the reason many people can't seize them is that they don't understand themselves, whether it's misguided confidence or blindly following trends.
I'll give a few examples from my own experience.
My risk tolerance is basically 0, that's just my human nature.
Entered the cryptocurrency market in 2019, didn't trade B, nor touched HY, it's simple, it's not that I'm wise, but I can't afford to lose, I have a clear understanding of myself.