cryptoliquidity

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🇯🇵 Bank of Japan to Offload $534B in ETFs — Is Bitcoin Facing New Pressure?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is preparing a historic policy shift.
Starting January 2026, it plans to gradually sell its ETF holdings worth ¥83 trillion ($534B) — just as Japan moves toward its first major rate hike in nearly 20 years.

🔄 A Slow but Powerful Exit

BoJ will offload ETFs at a pace of ¥330B per year, meaning the unwind could take decades.
Still, even a slow exit matters — BoJ is one of the largest ETF holders in the world, and its moves directly affect global liquidity.

Japanese equities surged over the last two years, leaving BoJ with large unrealized gains. Locking those in now signals a broader shift toward policy normalization.

📈 Rate Hike Incoming?

Markets expect a 25 bps rate hike at the Dec 18–19 meeting, pushing rates to 0.75%, the highest since the early 2000s.
Polymarket currently shows a 98% probability of confirmation.

This could disrupt global capital flows.

For years, the Japanese yen powered carry trades — cheap borrowing used to invest in higher-yield assets like stocks and crypto.
That era is ending.

> “With Japanese bond yields rising, the yen carry trade is shrinking fast.”
— Mister Crypto

₿ Bitcoin Under Pressure — But Not Panicking

Bitcoin has dipped below $90,000, trading near $89,700.
So far, the reaction is controlled, suggesting markets already priced in much of the risk.

Still, as yen-based leverage unwinds, risk assets like BTC remain exposed — especially in a tightening global liquidity environment.

🧠 ETFs: Old Money Out, New Money In

While Japan steps back from ETFs, Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. continue to grow, highlighting a generational shift in capital allocation.

Liquidity may rotate — not disappear.

🔮 What This Means for Crypto

Short-term volatility likely

Leverage-driven rallies become harder

Strong fundamentals matter more than hype

2026 could be a survival test — only the strongest crypto assets will thrive.

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