#market ‼️ The era of “cheap money” is postponed: Oil disrupts central banks’ plans, and Bitcoin reacts first
It seems that the narrative about “rate cuts will only be delayed for a quarter” is officially dead. The events of March 18–20, 2026 turned the market upside down.
🛢️ Oil shock and inflationary pressure
The main enemy today is the price of oil. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, Brent jumped to $119, which completely destroys the forecasts of regulators:
• Fed (USA): Raised the inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.7%. Instead of a series of cuts, the market now sees barely one until December.
• ECB (Europe): The situation is even tougher. The inflation forecast for 2026 has been revised from 1.9% to 2.6%. Not a cut, but two rate hikes are expected this year (the first is possible in June).
• Bank of England: Markets now rate rate hikes higher than rate cuts.
📉 Bitcoin as a “liquidity barometer”
$BTC reacted immediately to the policy change, breaking through the psychological $70,000 mark and falling to a local low of $68,834.
Why is this important? Bitcoin now works not as a separate crypto asset, but as the fastest indicator of global liquidity. When central banks tighten the screws on expensive energy, “risk-on” assets are the first to suffer.
🔮 What’s next? Two scenarios:
1. 🚀 Bullish (optimistic): If diplomacy works and oil falls to $70–85, central banks will return to dovish rhetoric. Then
$BTC will quickly return to the $75,000+ zone.
2. 🐻 Bearish (Realistic): If the energy crisis drags on and oil goes to $130–145, we will see real rate hikes. In this case, Citi analysts predict a test of the $58,000–$62,000 zone.
⚠️ Conclusion: Bitcoin’s next moves will depend not on network updates, but on news from the oil fields and central bank meetings. Traders are preparing for a “Higher for Longer” mode.