lot of people are panicking over this BTC drop.
Some are screaming “bull market is over”, others yelling “it only goes up forever.”
Honestly? I’m ignoring the noise.
I’m focused on data, not emotions — using AHR999 + MA200 to estimate this cycle’s top, which I believe lands somewhere between $128K–$150K by year end.
Let’s clear up two big misconceptions:
Misconception #1: A sharp drop = bear market started
I don’t buy that.
Macro conditions still favor BTC. Rate cuts later this year are basically priced in, liquidity is improving, political uncertainty has eased, and risk appetite is returning.
On-chain tells the same story:
• SOPR negative → panic selling, not smart profit taking
• STH cost around $113K → strong support zone
• Fast drops + quick rebounds → typical bull market behavior
This looks like a shakeout, not a cycle top.
Misconception #2: BTC will go up forever
Also wrong.
Cycles exist. Human psychology never changes.
New ETF money hasn’t experienced a real bear market yet. When price peaks, big players will distribute. Leveraged buyers like MSTR and others add risk, and sustaining leverage above $150K gets harder.
Add tariffs, geopolitics, inflation risks, and tighter liquidity next year… a correction becomes inevitable.
My view:
This year’s peak could be the final leg of the cycle. After that, expect a long cooling phase.
I trade reality — not hopium.
If you want steady profits, follow the data… not the crowd.
#Bitcoin #TrumpProCrypto #CryptoTrading #BTCAnalysis #MarketCycles