For the first time in this bear phase, price and open interest have clearly disconnected on a mid-timeframe.
Price has been grinding higher for six straight weeks…
yet OI has been steadily declining the entire time.
That’s not the footprint of strong, new demand entering the market.
It’s more consistent with shorts being forced out — gradually closing positions and locking in profits.
Many likely looked at 60k and decided it was a good place to step aside.
Their exits created upward pressure, lifting price along the way.
But here’s where it gets interesting…
This type of move isn’t driven by genuine conviction.
In a true reversal, you typically see OI rise alongside price.
Shorts get closed, but at the same time, fresh longs step in and new capital flows into the system.
There’s expansion. There’s participation. There’s follow-through.
That dynamic is missing here.
Instead, the move has been largely one-directional,
not because of aggressive buying, but because of positions being unwound.
It’s less about strength being added…
and more about pressure being released.
And that difference is critical.
Because short covering can only sustain price for so long.
Eventually, that source of demand runs out.
When it does — the question becomes:
What actually supports price from there?
If no new buyers are stepping in…
there may be very little left to keep the move going.
