The breakout above $70K and move into the $72K–$82K air gap are encouraging, but a single price push falls short of confirming a decisive structural shift.
Historically, recoveries from deep bear markets have been validated by Percent of Supply in Profit climbing from below the -1 standard deviation threshold near 60% toward its long-run mean of ~75%. The recent move has lifted this metric to around 60% — consistent with early bounces seen at prior cycle bottoms, where exhaustion at first recovery attempts was common.
A sustained push above 75% would carry considerably more weight as bull market confirmation, while continued rejection near current levels reinforces the bear market recovery narrative.
Historically, recoveries from deep bear markets have been validated by Percent of Supply in Profit climbing from below the -1 standard deviation threshold near 60% toward its long-run mean of ~75%. The recent move has lifted this metric to around 60% — consistent with early bounces seen at prior cycle bottoms, where exhaustion at first recovery attempts was common.
A sustained push above 75% would carry considerably more weight as bull market confirmation, while continued rejection near current levels reinforces the bear market recovery narrative.