🚨 IMF warns the world is on the brink of recession.
Global growth outlook for 2026 has been cut, with the Iran conflict now a major risk factor.
Here’s the breakdown:
• Base case: War ends quickly → growth at 3.1% (already downgraded)
• Adverse case: Oil near $100 → growth drops to 2.5%
• Worst case: Escalation + market stress → growth falls to 2.0%
That 2.0% level has only been seen during major crises like 2009 (financial crash) and 2020 (COVID).
Key concerns:
• Oil prices driving global slowdown
• War erasing earlier growth optimism
• Central banks may be forced to raise rates again
• $20B–$50B support needed for vulnerable economies
Before the war, growth was expected to rise.
Now, the entire outlook has flipped.
The global economy is now tied to one question:
How long does oil stay elevated?