$BTC
One more time, because this matters.
There’s one crucial, and more importantly unbreakable, pattern. Until proven otherwise, you don’t ignore it:
→ From the 2013 cycle peak to the 2015 low took 406 days.
→ From the 2017 cycle peak to the 2018 low took 364 days.
→ From the 2021 cycle peak to the 2022 low took 378 days.
There are other patterns too, like low to peak:
→ From the 2015 low to the 2017 high took 1064 days.
→ From the 2018 low to the 2021 high took 1071 days.
→ From the 2022 low to the 2025 high took 1043 days.
The spread is only 28 days when you compare the 2015-2017 cycle with 2022-2025, and the median is basically the same.
I think it’s stupid to argue with the fact that once BTC hit $126,000, a bear cycle started, and 66% of it is already behind us.
So, using a few mathematical models, you get a window from September 4, 2026 to October 21, 2026. Add a bit of error margin, and you end up with the simple September-October range this year. Until proven otherwise, ignoring that is stupid.
One more time, because this matters.
There’s one crucial, and more importantly unbreakable, pattern. Until proven otherwise, you don’t ignore it:
→ From the 2013 cycle peak to the 2015 low took 406 days.
→ From the 2017 cycle peak to the 2018 low took 364 days.
→ From the 2021 cycle peak to the 2022 low took 378 days.
There are other patterns too, like low to peak:
→ From the 2015 low to the 2017 high took 1064 days.
→ From the 2018 low to the 2021 high took 1071 days.
→ From the 2022 low to the 2025 high took 1043 days.
The spread is only 28 days when you compare the 2015-2017 cycle with 2022-2025, and the median is basically the same.
I think it’s stupid to argue with the fact that once BTC hit $126,000, a bear cycle started, and 66% of it is already behind us.
So, using a few mathematical models, you get a window from September 4, 2026 to October 21, 2026. Add a bit of error margin, and you end up with the simple September-October range this year. Until proven otherwise, ignoring that is stupid.