Ethereum Price Outlook: ETF Outflows Clash with Whale Accumulation in June
May just slammed Ethereum with over $400 million in ETH spot ETF outflows, snapping a two-year streak of green closes for the month. This isn't just a blip; it's the third-largest monthly outflow since late 2025, directly correlating with ETH's price collapse. The pattern is clear: ETF flows are dictating ETH's short-term fate.
Adding to the bearish setup, June historically bites ETH, averaging a -6.74% return since 2016. Only three Junes in the last decade have closed in the green. The question is whether the ETF exodus continues or if on-chain conviction can stem the tide.
Here's the twist: while the ETFs are dumping, Ethereum whales are quietly stacking. Supply held by whales outside exchanges has climbed by over $2 billion since May 1st. Long-term holders, tracked by Glassnode, have also maintained conviction, staying green since February, unlike a previous sharp drop.
Technically, ETH is forming a bearish inverted cup pattern, suggesting further downside after a potential handle bounce. However, a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI offers a glimmer of hope for a relief rally. This divergence points to a bounce, but not a trend reversal.
Key resistance levels to watch for any bounce are the cost basis clusters at $2,059-$2,075 and $2,154-$2,170. Losing the $1,964 trendline, however, confirms the bearish pattern and could send ETH plummeting 21% to $1,545.