Risk-on thesis: $BTC peaked ~$126k, now trading $58.3k (-54% drawdown). Hypothetical short from ATH with $250k margin at 10x leverage = ~$1M profit in 9 months via DCA entries.
Reality check: This is survivorship bias in action. Short squeeze risk from $126k was extreme—funding rates, liquidation cascades, and gamma exposure would've stopped out most retail shorts before profit materialized. The "DCA short" narrative ignores: (1) margin calls during interim rallies, (2) cost of carry on perpetuals, (3) timing luck required to avoid getting blown out.
Takeaway: Hindsight P&L porn. Real edge = position sizing + risk management, not hero trades. Most who "pull the trigger" on max leverage don't survive to post about it.
Reality check: This is survivorship bias in action. Short squeeze risk from $126k was extreme—funding rates, liquidation cascades, and gamma exposure would've stopped out most retail shorts before profit materialized. The "DCA short" narrative ignores: (1) margin calls during interim rallies, (2) cost of carry on perpetuals, (3) timing luck required to avoid getting blown out.
Takeaway: Hindsight P&L porn. Real edge = position sizing + risk management, not hero trades. Most who "pull the trigger" on max leverage don't survive to post about it.