There’s a specific condition I always watch for on Bitcoin. Price trading below both the 2-year MA and the 200 SMA.
It doesn’t show up every year. It usually appears once per 4-year cycle.
And right now we’re there. That alone doesn’t mean price can’t go lower. It can. And it might.
But historically, when BTC reaches this zone, the risk profile changes.
Upside isn’t immediate. Confidence isn’t obvious. Sentiment usually still feels heavy.
Yet this is where long-term buyers quietly start stepping in, not because they’re certain but because downside becomes more limited relative to upside.
That’s the key point.
This isn’t a “full send” signal.
It’s a window.
A phase where patience matters more than precision, and where chasing confirmation usually means paying higher prices later.
If price pushes lower, risk can be managed.
If it stabilizes here, the opportunity won’t stay obvious for long.
I’m not calling a bottom.
I am saying the asymmetry is shifting.
Are you still waiting for cleaner confirmation or starting to respect this zone as a long-term opportunity window?
$BTC #bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #RiskManagement
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