We have completed 3 waves up from the 2022 bottom. My base case on the weekly time frame suggested an expanded flat correction in an Elliot wave 4 defined by the poke above all time high in a 3 wave structure.
High probability bottoming areas for wave C of 4 are the High Volume Node at $77k and weekly 200EMA just a bit lower at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement.
The next downside target is the 0.326 Fib retracement at $56k.
Weekly RSI has only ever been this low 3 times. Las time, price was at $18,000, had one more spike lower to $15500 and then went to $125k
The time before that? Price was at $3000, there was no spike lower, price went to $70,000
The only other time it happened, price was at $150, had no spike lower and went to $20,000.
History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.
