bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) stopped its 6-month bearish streak in March and this month is staging an impressive rally (along with stocks). Still this isn't something that diverges from the typical Bear Cycle behavior. Even if April closes in green too, it won't be the first time BTC had two straight green months during a Bear Cycle. We've seen that two times before, May - June 2014 and February - March 2022.
So we are still within standard Bear Cycle borders and the 1M RSI and 1M LMACD come to confirm this. Those are historically the most stable indicators on Bitcoin Cycles. As you can see, BTC has historically bottomed when the 1M RSI hit the 15-year Lower Lows trend-line Support (green circles). The current rally is taking place much higher than that, so the Bear Cycle hasn't bottomed.
Also, the 1M LMACD is still high, with no signs of making a Bullish Cross, even though its April histogram bar turned light red. This has still time to change before the monthly closing but even if it stays that way it will not be the first time to have a light red bar before the Cycle bottom (happened in October 2022).
In addition, since the January 2015 bottom, every Bear Cycle bottom was priced 1430 days (47 weeks) after the previous one. If that holds again, the Cycle won't bottom before October 2026. On top of that, the price is hovering just above the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which broke during the last Bear Cycle, with BTC bottoming on the 1W MA350 (orange trend-line). Technically this time it can go even as low as the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), so the two give us a $50000 - 40000 estimated Bottom (Buy) Zone.
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The crypto market just flipped the script, and the biggest corporate players in the game are finally breathing a sigh of relief. As Bitcoin surged to the $77,000 mark, the aggressive "Treasury Strategy" adopted by major firms has officially moved from underwater to pure profit.
Validation of the 'Diamond Hands' Strategy
For the past few years, critics have called corporate Bitcoin accumulation a "dangerous gamble." But with this latest rally, the narrative is shifting from "reckless risk" to "strategic genius."
These companies don't treat BTC like a speculative trade; they treat it as a high-momentum macro asset. While traditional corporations sit on depreciating cash, these firms have leveraged their balance sheets to bet on the future of digital gold. Today, that bet is paying off with an 8% surge in equity value.
Psychology of the $77k Level
Bitcoin hitting $77,000 is more than just a price point—it’s a psychological barrier. It marks a recovery phase where the market stops looking at "surviving the dip" and starts looking at "price discovery."
Retail Sentiment: FOMO is starting to kick in.Institutional Sentiment: Long-term conviction is being rewarded.The Trap: While the profit looks good on paper, the market remains highly sensitive to macro liquidity.
The Risk Behind the Reward
Despite the green candles, the situation is a double-edged sword. Because these firms are so heavily tied to Bitcoin’s price, their stock becomes a leveraged play on BTC. When Bitcoin flies, they outperform the market. But if a sharp correction hits, the same leverage that built the profit can wipe out gains in a matter of days.
Final Verdict
The market is currently in "Reward Mode." Confidence has been restored, and the discussion around corporate adoption is louder than ever. Whether this momentum carries us to $100k or leads into a brutal "Bull Trap" depends on the next few weeks of institutional demand.
For now, the strategy is simple: The bold are winning, and the bears are trapped.
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