fed

Bitcoin bounced back for two consecutive days, but the key isn't the strength of the bounce, but whether the market has temporarily stopped fleeing it. 🥰
Bitcoin returned to positive territory for two consecutive days after hitting a multi-month low. However, those who understand the market will know that the bigger issue than quick celebrations is that this recovery is due to the market easing pressure on interest rates, not a new picture for cryptocurrencies themselves.
Data from MarketWatch indicates that Bitcoin rose approximately 2.6% in a single day, reaching around $61,555, after gaining over 2% the previous day. This rebound occurred after the market reduced concerns about the Fed's interest rate hikes and began rotating funds back from some hedging positions. This is crucial because it reinforces the fact that Bitcoin remains an asset sensitive to liquidity and the cost of money, not an asset whose movement is based on narratives separate from the mainstream financial world.
On the other hand, this recovery occurred despite the overall year still being heavily negative and the price still far from its previous high. This means the market hasn't shifted from fear to confidence; it's merely testing the waters as pressure on interest rates and selling pressure from negative news, such as large companies' Bitcoin sales projects, subside.
What investors need to watch out for is the misconception that a two-day bounce means a new, stable base has been established. In the crypto market, short-term recoveries during major downtrends are common and often mislead those who can't distinguish between "buying pressure return" and "trend reversal." If interest rates remain high for an extended period or global liquidity isn't fully open, Bitcoin is still at risk of being sold off when other assets become more attractive.
Analyst's View on this Event:
This news clearly indicates that Bitcoin still behaves like an asset heavily reliant on cheap money. When the likelihood of interest rate hikes decreases, it can recover. However, if the Fed tightens rates again, that recovery is likely to disappear quickly.
Therefore, this isn't an answer to whether Bitcoin has returned, but rather a new question: If the global financial system truly eases off, will enough risky capital flow back to cryptocurrencies to change the trend?
#bitcoin #crypto #Fed #CryptoNews #btc
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At a time when many investors expect U.S. interest rates to remain unchanged, one of Europe's best-known economists has presented a very different outlook. Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz, believes the Federal Reserve may still be forced to raise interest rates as early as September.
His warning comes despite weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data, which initially suggested that the economy was beginning to cool. According to Subran, however, inflation remains the biggest risk facing policymakers.
Weak Jobs Data May Not Be Enough
The latest U.S. employment report showed that the economy added only 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, well below market expectations of around 110,000. Previous months' payroll figures were also revised lower. Although the report reduced expectations of an immediate policy tightening, markets still see a September rate hike as a realistic possibility.
Subran argues that slowing job growth alone will not be enough to convince the Federal Reserve that inflation is under control.
He believes inflation could climb back above 3.7% in the coming months, driven by continued investment in artificial intelligence, expansionary fiscal policies, and strong spending in the energy sector.
According to Subran, this combination of factors could ultimately push the Fed toward another rate increase at its September meeting.
Fed Leadership Remains Focused on Inflation
A similarly cautious message has come from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who recently reiterated at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, that the central bank remains fully committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target.
Warsh also declined to provide any guidance on future policy decisions, emphasizing that upcoming interest rate moves will depend entirely on incoming economic data.
ECB May Already Be Finished Raising Rates
Subran expects a very different path for Europe.
According to the Allianz economist, the European Central Bank (ECB) likely completed its tightening cycle with its most recent rate increase, which he described as largely precautionary. Current economic data, he argues, do not justify further monetary tightening in the euro area.
The growing divergence between the Federal Reserve and the ECB could become one of the most important drivers of global financial markets in the months ahead, particularly for the U.S. dollar and the euro.
Geopolitical Risks Still Matter
Subran also warned that the economic consequences of recent tensions in the Middle East may become more visible over time.
Although energy prices have eased following the partial de-escalation of the conflict, continued investment in the energy sector and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could continue to fuel inflationary pressures.
For that reason, Subran believes September could become one of the most important months for financial markets this year. If inflation fails to slow meaningfully, the Federal Reserve may once again surprise investors by raising interest rates—despite widespread expectations just a few weeks ago that its next move would likely be in the opposite direction.
#Fed , #FederalReserve , #interestrates , #Inflation , #worldnews
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Disclaimer:
The information and opinions presented in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Nothing on this page constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. Cryptocurrency investments are inherently risky and may result in financial loss. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.