Iran Declines Talks Amid Coercion as 10-Day Ceasefire Expiry Looms, Hormuz Crises Escalate
Iran insists it will not enter into talks amid military pressure from America as the 10-day U.S-Iran cease-fire expires Wednesday, with tensions rising and the Strait of Hormuz virtually sealed shut.
Iranian Position
* Parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: Iran cannot accept talks amid "threats." Adds Tehran spent 2 weeks preparing "new cards on the battle-field."
* Foreign Ministry: No second round of talks planned, no decision on talks with Pakistan.
* Major grievance: The imposition of naval blockade by the U.S. same day cease-fire took effect. Described as coercive measures, demands its lifting and cessation of cease-fire violations before entering any talks.
American Position
* Donald Trump to CNBC: Ready for war again, if no deal, will not extend cease-fire period. Expecting a "great deal" from Iran and insists Iran has "no choice" other than negotiating.
* Team headed by VP JD Vance expected in Pakistan.
Hormuz & Military Posture
* Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed since Iran reopened, then sealed it once more after capturing the Touska cargo vessel.
* Iranian drones fired at U.S. ships after its capture. USS Gerald R. Ford is currently in the Mediterranean region while USS Abraham Lincoln sails north in the Arabian Sea. Third carrier group expected by month’s end.
* Ceasefire agreement ends tomorrow at midnight.
Impact on Market
* Hope for ceasefire raised BTC to $72,700, lowered oil prices by 13% on April 8.
* If fighting resumes, Brent oil prices may reach $100, stripping away the positive macro trend that favored crypto coins for two weeks.
* Oil Price --> Inflation Expectations --> Fed Policies --> Risk Assets, hence tomorrow's deadline may be the key driver for BTC and cryptocurrencies.
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