signals

Simple yet very powerful chart. This analysis shows Bitcoin (BTCUSD), focused mostly on its Bear Cycles and the S&P500 (SPX) during those time periods. Essentially how the S&P500 performs during BTC's Bear Cycles.
As you can see, Bitcoin has been very consistent with regards to its Bear Cycles (red Rectangles). They have been strong corrections in the forms of Channel Down patterns and highly symmetrical its terms of duration, lasting roughly 1 year.
During those time periods, the S&P500 experienced one very clear Bear Cycles correction, in the form of an aggressive Channel Down in 2022. The one before (2018) was also a Bear Cycle but less aggressive, in the form of a Megaphone. Still it did make a Lower Low at its end. In 2014 however, the S&P500 didn't correct at all but rose within a Channel Up. Not an aggressive one, but a Channel Up nonetheless.
As a result, history shows that the S&P500 doesn't necessarily 'have to' follow BTC's Bear Cycles and has been less consistent. However, given that SPX's current price action since BTC's Bear Cycles isn't either a Channel Up or a Channel Down, it resembles more that of a Megaphone. In fact, so far it fits perfectly within the 2018 Megaphone. As long as its top holds, we may see a correction to a Lower Low in the second half of 2026. Then again, the market may provide a completely different pattern this time but so far it looks more like the highly volatile and turbulent period of the 2018 U.S. - China Trade War.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has completed 760 days since its last Halving and this comes with an important weight to it. Historically, every time BTC completed 760 days from its Halving, it dropped immediately.
As you can see on this chart, that 760 day signal has always taken place before the 0.618 Time Fibonacci level between Halving Cycles, with the exception of December 2014, which took place exactly on it.
Either way, the crash that follows typically is the last strong sell-off and technically initiates the Bottom Process. The current 0.618 Time Fib is on October 2026, which coincides with the 1-year Bear Cycle Model Theory, so it is highly probable to see a Cycle Bottom around it.
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Tron (TRXUSD) has been showing incredible resilience as of late, as despite the correction of the last few months, it is about to test the August 2025 Highs.
Its 1W RSI pattern though, which is under Lower Highs with the price testing the trend-line now, is on a similar pattern as the 2021-2022 Bear Cycle. It was during that 3rd rally and Lower Highs test (May 02 2022) that TRX got rejected and started its final Bearish Leg.
That final correction hit and bottomed on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which was also on the Support level of the Bear Cycle as formed by the June 21 2021 Low. At the same time, the 1W RSI bottomed around 33.00 (almost oversold).
Pay particular attention to the 1W RSI as its December 02 2024 High was priced on the same level as the March 29 2021 High of the previous Bear Cycle. If this symmetry continues, we may also see it bottoming on the 33.00 Support again.
As a result, taking into account all the above parameters, TRX's 0.20250 Support seems like a strong candidate for this Bear Cycle bottom, which by October - November 2026, may again make contact with the 1W MA200. If however the 1W RSI hits the 33.00 Support first, we will turn long-term bullish on Tron regardless of the price.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently testing its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the Bear Cycle's natural Resistance, for the first time since November 03 2025. A rejection here will confirm the extension of the Bear Cycle, which continues to be replicating the price action of the 2022 Cycle.
Technically both share a similar structure even before the Bear Cycles. The recent February Low breached below the All Time High (ATH) of the previous Cycle (red circle), which is exactly what the 2022 Bear Cycle did on he week of June 13 2022 (blue circle). After that, BTC made one last Low on its 1W MA350 (red trend-line), just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the previous Cycle, which just happened to be on the June 24 2019 High (orange circle).
That 0.786 Fib High trend-line now matches exactly the 1W MA350 and by August - September 2026 can make contact with the price at $50000. This is why we expect that to be the minimum Target of the current Bear Cycle and why Bitcoin should reverse to the downside again soon.
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