OG Analyst

The momentum that once pushed Bitcoin above the $80,000 mark is starting to lose strength, and one of the biggest reasons may be the sudden slowdown in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF demand.
Over the past five trading days, investors have pulled nearly $1.26 billion out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. The biggest hit came on Wednesday alone, when these funds recorded a massive $635 million in net outflows, the largest single-day withdrawal since January 29, according to data from SoSoValue.
This shift is especially important because ETF inflows were previously seen as one of the strongest bullish drivers behind Bitcoin’s rally earlier this year. Between March and April, the 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $3.29 billion in fresh capital, helping fuel Bitcoin’s move from the $65,000 region to above $80,000.
Now, that momentum appears to be fading.
Bitcoin’s rally has stalled just below its 200-day simple moving average near $82,000, a level traders were closely watching as a major resistance zone. Instead of breaking higher, BTC has started slipping again. Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has dropped more than 2%, trading near $79,400 as renewed concerns around U.S. inflation continue to pressure risk assets.
What makes the situation more interesting is that traditional markets are not reacting the same way. Despite rising inflation fears, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached fresh highs on Wednesday, while Bitcoin struggled to maintain bullish momentum. That divergence is making investors increasingly cautious about crypto’s short-term direction.
The recent ETF outflows are difficult for bulls to ignore, especially because strong inflows were heavily celebrated only weeks ago as proof that institutional demand was accelerating. Now, with money moving out of these products and macroeconomic uncertainty increasing, traders are beginning to question whether Bitcoin can continue climbing without another strong catalyst.
Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, explained that inflation and broader macro conditions could still weigh heavily on Bitcoin, even if ETF demand eventually improves again.
“A persistently hot CPI, an incoming Fed under Warsh that markets read as more hawkish, or another oil shock can compress Bitcoin even with positive net flows,” he said. “The more important question is whether macro conditions remain loose enough for these flows to continue supporting the market.”
Still, there is another side to this story.
While ETF flows have often been linked closely with Bitcoin’s price action, that relationship has weakened significantly in recent months. A 90-day rolling Pearson correlation study between Bitcoin’s daily returns and changes in cumulative ETF inflows now sits at just 0.16. Earlier in February, that figure was as high as 0.68.
In simple terms, ETF inflows and Bitcoin price movements are no longer moving in near-perfect sync the way they once did. This means that even if ETFs see outflows on a particular day, Bitcoin may not necessarily continue falling, and vice versa.
However, large withdrawals like Wednesday’s $635 million redemption still matter because they reflect weakening investor confidence at a time when macroeconomic pressure is already building.
For now, Bitcoin remains stuck between institutional demand uncertainty and rising inflation fears. If ETF inflows fail to recover and macro conditions continue tightening, the market could see more volatility ahead before any clear breakout attempt above $82,000 returns.
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