btcnextmove

actualmente se está negociando alrededor de $69k después de recuperarse de un mínimo reciente. La estructura del mercado en el marco de tiempo de 4 horas muestra una clara reacción de un evento de liquidez seguida de un movimiento controlado hacia arriba. Sin embargo, el precio se está acercando a un punto de decisión a medida que el impulso comienza a desacelerarse. La interacción entre el reciente barrido de liquidez, el FVG alcista de 4 horas y el FVG de resistencia más alta probablemente determinará el próximo movimiento direccional.
🛑 Barrido de Liquidez
Antes de la reciente recuperación, Bitcoin realizó un claro barrido de liquidez por debajo de los mínimos a corto plazo anteriores. El precio se negoció brevemente por debajo del rango, activando stops y recolectando liquidez del lado de venta, antes de revertir bruscamente hacia arriba. Este tipo de movimiento a menudo señala que el mercado ha completado una fase correctiva a corto plazo y está listo para una expansión en la dirección opuesta. La fuerte reacción de ese barrido confirma que los compradores estaban esperando por debajo de los mínimos, utilizando ese evento de liquidez como combustible para el movimiento alcista.

📊 Bitcoin’s Next Move Depends on One Major On-Chain Signal

The crypto market is currently moving sideways with very little momentum.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by more than 1%, and traders are waiting for a clear direction before making new moves.

While price action looks quiet, on-chain data (blockchain-based metrics) may already be giving important signals about what could happen next.

🔎 1️⃣ The NUPL Indicator – Are Long-Term Holders in Profit?
What is NUPL?

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures whether Bitcoin holders are sitting in profit or loss overall.
According to Alphractal co-founder João Wedson.

NUPL is one of the most reliable signals for spotting Bitcoin’s long-term bottoms.It shows when long-term holders are under maximum pressure.
Current Situation:

NUPL is at 0.36
This means long-term holders are still in profit

👉 Historically, major Bitcoin rallies started when NUPL turned negative.

That’s when even strong holders were losing money — creating “maximum pain” before recovery.
📌 Key Point:

We are not at maximum pain yet, which suggests the market may not have reached a full bottom.

📉 2️⃣ MVRV Ratio – Entering the “Accumulation Zone”
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has entered the Accumulation Zone for the first time since May 2022.
hat is MVRV?
MVRV compares.

Market value (current price)Realized value (average purchase price)

When MVRV drops below 1.44, Bitcoin is considered:
✔️ Relatively undervalued

✔️ Attractive for long-term investors
But here’s the important warning:
⚠️ In 2022, when Bitcoin entered this zone, it still fell another 50% before bottoming.

Key Point:

Accumulation zone does NOT mean price can’t drop further.

It means smart investors are starting to pay attention.
🧠 What Does This Mean for Investors?

Here’s a simple breakdown:

The market lacks strong momentum.Long-term holders are still in profit.
True “panic selling” hasn’t happened yet.
Bitcoin looks closer to a buying opportunity — but not fully there.Historically, the biggest opportunities came when sentiment was extremely negative.⚖️ Overall Market Message
The indicators are not saying “buy now.”

They are saying:
The market is slowly moving toward conditions that often appear before major rebounds.More pessimism and less speculation may still be needed.Strong buying opportunities usually appear when nobody wants crypto.

📊 The data suggests we’re getting closer, but the “maximum opportunity” moment hasn’t arrived yet.

🔥 Final Takeaway

The biggest crypto gains historically happened when:
Sentiment was extremely negative
Investors felt hopelessLong-term holders were deeply underwater

We’re approaching that zone — but we’re not fully there yet.
$BTC
#Market_Update
#BTCNextMove