perspectivas de Pelin Ay(@Pelinay)

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Pelin Ay

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Binance Fund Flow Ratio Shows Uncertainty Despite Increased Volatility The price is currently below the SMA (14, 30, 50) averages. This indicates that funds flowing into Binance are weak relative to the price. We can understand that the BTC entering the exchange is more for selling than buying. Demand is still weak. This structure will not generate upward momentum. All averages of the Fund Flow Ratio are horizontal and slightly downward sloping. Even if the price goes up, there isn't enough demand to reverse the main trend upwards. Since the price isn't rising, the amount of money entering the market isn't increasing. There are no new buyers; only existing liquidity is changing hands. Even if the price rises, this won't be sustainable. Therefore, as I've repeatedly stated, even if we experience a short-term upward wave, the main trend will continue downwards. Another noteworthy point in the chart is the sharp upward and downward wicks, but the average value isn't expanding. This means that intraday trading is intense, with only scalping and short-term trades. There's no positioning; investors are indecisive. Volatility exists, but it lacks the power to reverse the trend. There is a Price-Fund Flow Divergence. BTC is currently trading around $87K. While the price is falling, the Fund Flow Ratio isn't showing a strong accompanying increase. This indicates a lack of strong buying at support levels. Bitcoin hasn't yet reached a cheap price perception. Whales aren't taking risks yet. Based on this data, a major rally cannot be expected. Correctionary rallies, sideways and downward consolidation are possible, as the price encounters selling pressure with every rise. Without sustained Fund Flow Ratio above 0.02, rallies in BTC will act as selling opportunities. #Bitcoin

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Binance Trade Volume Shows Altcoin Season Ended Before It Even Began The chart shows that the market has been moving in an altcoin-centric mode for extended periods, rather than a BTC-centric one. During periods of increased BTC volume, the share of BTC expands upwards from the 10-15% range. Simultaneously, Others volume shrinks. ETH generally remains neutral or slightly retreating. This indicates that the market is reducing risk. During these periods, Altcoin/BTC pairs generally weaken as well. Volatility decreases. Periods of Increased ETH Volume (Orange Area Expanding): BTC volume remains stable or declines. Others have not yet peaked. ETH share expands towards the 25-35% range. In this case, the market is taking on a level of risk from BTC, but the altcoin season hasn't fully begun yet. The ETH price is outperforming BTC. ETH dominance is increasing. Large L1s are following ETH. During periods when other major altcoin volume peaks (the green area is dominant), Others volume reaches 60-75%. BTC and ETH volumes are squeezed together simultaneously. This increases the high risk appetite in the market. Capital flows to assets with the highest beta. Sharp increases are observed in altcoins, while BTC generally shows a sideways rise. This chart shows that volume doesn't follow the price; instead, it prepares the ground for the price's future direction. Currently, Others volume appears to have significantly decreased. ETH volume is stable upwards, while BTC volume is clearly showing a tendency to recover from its bottom. This proves that the broad-based rally mode in altcoins has ended. We can say that the market is either in an upward phase specifically for ETH or a gradual return to BTC. In this process, not random altcoins, but coins with high liquidity and a narrative will move. BTC will not experience a sudden dump, but its upward momentum will remain limited. ETH will remain more resilient than BTC. $BTC $ETH

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Bitcoin closed at $87K on Monday. As long as the price holds the $81,500 support, I think it will first rise ($102K-$110K) and then continue its main downward trend. This week's MR range for #bitcoin will be $87,800-$90,500. I don't think the entire #Altcoin market will follow this rise. Unfortunately, there isn't much inflow into altcoins, except for a few major projects. These projects are generally major coins that have received ETF approval. I'd also like to add that I still see people creating altcoin portfolios, which is a wrong approach. Let's see the bear bottom first, then creating portfolios will be easy. I think $BTC should drop to at least $72,000.

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Bitcoin dominansı yükselişini sürdürüyor. #Bitcoin yukarı mini bir yükseliş yapsa da çoğu #altcoin eşlik edecek gibi durmuyor. Muhtemelen $BTC yükselişi yine çoğu altcoini ezmeye devam edecek. Umarım spotunuzdaki coinler ayrışanlardan olur. Bitcoin için detaylı analizi yarın paylaşacağım ancak şunu söyleyebilirim. Ana yön aşağı, ama düşüşün düzeltmesi olarak kısa bir yükseliş dalgası göreceğiz. $BTCDOM

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CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) Data Shows a Mini Christmas Rally is Possible CDD measures long-term investor (LTH) behavior. In the chart, CDD bars have been irregular but not excessively high in recent weeks. Additionally, the CDD-SMA(30/50/100) short-term averages are not breaking upwards. This is very important because long-term coins are not flooding exchanges en masse. In other words, whales are not aggressively selling. When CDD rises sharply in the chart, the price is generally near the peak. Usually, a correction or volatile consolidation follows. According to the chart, if CDD is calm or the price is volatile, it indicates that selling pressure is coming from short-term traders. The current situation perfectly summarizes this. This pattern indicates that the price is open to surprise upward movements. For a Christmas rally, the following conditions are required: LTH will not sell off, CDD will not increase while the price falls, and liquidity will circulate through small investors. The chart clearly shows that the first two conditions are met. Therefore, the CDD (Credit Value Added) data isn't preventing a mini Christmas rally. However, this doesn't mean a Christmas rally is certain; it simply indicates that it's structurally possible. Previously, in situations similar to today's CDD data, rallies occurred when CDD data was low, while declines remained relatively small. This upcoming mini-rise can be interpreted as a correction to a previous decline. The key point to note is that if a sudden, high CDD data release occurs while the price is rising, we can conclude that this rise is a trap. Currently, there is no such signal. $BTC #bitcoin

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