Brent crude plunged below $84 a barrel on Monday after former President Trump declared a US‑Iran peace deal “now complete” over the weekend, marking the lowest price since early March. The move extended a selloff that began Friday, when optimism about a deal sent Brent from roughly $93 to about $87.50 — and then another roughly 4% lower Monday in Asia‑Pacific trade. Markets are trading on headlines, not barrels. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said a memorandum of understanding “has never been closer,” and a senior Trump administration official put the odds of a signed deal at about 80%. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright added that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was “rising very meaningfully,” giving traders another reason to sell. Still, analysts caution that physical supply gains will take time to materialize: Iran confirmed a 60‑day negotiating window for a final agreement on nuclear issues and sanctions relief, so the risk to shipments through the Strait remains unresolved for now. On the ground, the recovery in flows looks limited. UBS analysts led by Henri Patricot said there is “little evidence” of a near‑term improvement in vessel traffic or energy flows and called Gulf crude loadings “extremely low.” IG analyst Tony Sycamore summed up market sentiment: “Hard to see crude falling much further from here in the near term.” In short: prices are being driven by optimism, not by a sudden return of physical barrels. The disruption has been large. The Strait of Hormuz shock removed roughly 14 million barrels per day (bpd) from global markets since early March — cutting exports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait all at once. Producers and partners patched some of that hole: about 5 million bpd was rerouted through alternative pipelines, the US military facilitated roughly 2 million bpd via covert tanker movements, and the International Energy Agency released emergency stocks at about 2.5 million bpd. Even so, inventories remain near multi‑year lows. Major banks and consultancies say the structural picture is unchanged and recovery will be gradual. Barclays kept its 2026 Brent forecast at $100/bbl and warned of upside risks, saying inventory trends point to a 6–8 million bpd deficit and that even a full reopening today would start from inventories about 20 million barrels below recent tight levels. JPMorgan likewise expects Brent to stay over $100 for the rest of 2026, citing time needed for restocking and infrastructure repairs. Rystad Energy estimated the crisis has removed roughly 1 billion barrels from the market so far. Even under an optimistic timeline — a June peace deal — Rystad sees a phased reopening only from mid‑July, with about 85% of lost volumes back by October and the remainder, largely from mature Iraqi and Kuwaiti fields, recovering into January 2027. Under that constructive scenario, cumulative supply losses could approach 2 billion barrels by year‑end. Bottom line for markets and crypto investors: headline relief has knocked oil prices down for now, but inventories, damaged infrastructure and phased restarts mean the supply-side squeeze isn’t fixed. That lingering energy risk can sustain inflationary pressures and volatility across risk assets — including crypto — and keep mining and energy‑sensitive projects on watch until physical flows actually recover. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news