Woke up to some wild numbers today. After the data delays from the government shutdown, the reality is finally hitting the tape... and it’s a bit of a reality check. 😬
The U.S. reportedly lost 105k jobs in October, and while there was a 64k bounce back in November, the big headline is the 4.6% unemployment rate. That’s a 4-year high, fam.
🧱 The Labor Market is Cracking
But here’s the kicker: Jerome Powell recently admitted the situation might be worse than the official reports. He’s hinting that job gains might be overstated by about 60k a month.
Translation? If we subtract that overstatement from the reported numbers, we might actually be seeing a monthly contraction of around 20,000 jobs. The "soft landing" is looking a lot more like a bumpy one. 📉
🎢 What does this mean for your bags? 💰
The Fed just delivered its third straight 0.25% rate cut, taking the target range to 3.50% - 3.75%. Traditionally, rate cuts = "money printer go brrr" = bullish for $BTC and $ETH . But there's a catch this time.
The Bull Case: Weak jobs = More aggressive Fed cuts in 2026. Markets thrive on liquidity. As the USD weakens, capital tends to flee toward "hard assets" like Bitcoin and Gold.
The Bear Case: Rising unemployment hits consumer spending. If we get a "hard landing," even crypto might take a temporary hit as traders de-risk into cash during the initial panic.
🌊 My Pro Take
Watch the $BTC 1D chart closely. We're in a massive volatility zone. If the Fed keeps pivoting to support employment over fighting inflation, the liquidity floodgates are going to open wide once the dust settles.
I'm personally keeping some stables ready for a potential "recession dip" but staying long on the macro trend. The Fed is "steering through a storm" right now, and historically, this is where the biggest cycle moves are born.
What’s your move? Are you buying this dip or waiting for more clarity? Does 4.6% unemployment scare you, or are you just waiting for the next rate cut pump? Let’s talk below! 👇
#Bitcoin #Recession #JeromePowell #USJobsData #2025withBainace 