fedratedecisions

Truflation is showing US inflation near 0.68% while layoffs, credit defaults, and bankruptcies are all rising, yet the Fed still says the economy is strong.

If you look at the economy right now and compare it with what the Fed is saying publicly, there is a very clear disconnect building.

The Fed keeps repeating that the job market is still strong. But real data coming out from layoffs, hiring slowdowns, and wage trends is telling a different story.

We are already seeing cracks forming beneath the surface. The labor market is not collapsing overnight, but it is clearly weakening faster than what official statements suggest.

The same disconnect shows up in inflation data.

The Fed continues to say inflation is still sticky and not fully under control. But real time inflation trackers like Truflation are now showing inflation running close to 0.68%.
$XRP
That level is not signaling overheating.

It is signaling that price pressures are cooling rapidly and the economy is moving closer toward disinflation and potentially deflation if the trend continues.

And deflation is a much bigger risk than inflation. Inflation slows spending but deflation stops spending. When consumers expect prices to fall, they delay purchases, businesses cut production, margins shrink, and layoffs accelerate.

That is when economic slowdowns turn into deeper recessions.

Another area flashing warning signs is credit stress. Credit card delinquencies are rising. Auto loan defaults are rising. Corporate credit stress is rising.

These are late cycle signals that usually appear when households and businesses are already struggling with higher rates.

Bankruptcies are also moving higher across sectors.

This shows that the cost of capital is starting to break weaker balance sheets. Small businesses and over-leveraged companies are feeling the pressure first but that pressure spreads if policy stays tight for too long.

So the bigger question becomes policy timing.

If inflation is already cooling…
If the labor market is already weakening…
If credit stress is already rising…

Then holding rates restrictive for too long can amplify the slowdown instead of stabilizing it.

Monetary policy works with a lag. Which means by the time the Fed reacts to confirmed weakness in lagging data, the damage is often already done.

That is the risk the market is starting to price in now. This is no longer just about inflation control.

It is about whether policy is now overtight relative to real-time economic conditions.

And if that is the case, then the next phase of the cycle will not be driven by inflation fears… It will be driven by growth fears and policy reversal expectations.

That is why the Is the Fed too late? question is starting to matter more for markets going into the next few months.

#WarshFedPolicyOutlook #FedRateDecisions #FedRateCut

Mengapa Penjualan Kemarin Tidak Acak — Itu Struktural

Dan Mengapa Pasar Tiba-Tiba Memikirkan Kembali Likuiditas

Penjualan tajam yang kami lihat kemarin tidak muncul begitu saja. Itu dimulai hampir seketika setelah pasar prediksi memperkirakan kemungkinan yang jauh lebih tinggi bahwa Kevin Warsh akan menjadi Ketua Federal Reserve berikutnya.

Reaksi itu bukan emosional. Itu struktural.

Para trader tidak panik karena Warsh tidak dikenal — mereka menjual karena mereka tahu rekam jejaknya dan apa artinya itu untuk likuiditas ke depan.

#FedRateDecisions #FedNews #WhoIsNextFedChair #FederalSecurityLaws #MarketCorrection
Dengan dilantiknya presiden baru Federal Reserve AS dan pengumuman kebijakan moneter yang lebih fleksibel, pasar keuangan memasuki tahap kewaspadaan. Mata uang digital, sebagai aset yang paling sensitif terhadap perubahan kebijakan moneter, kini menghadapi keputusan Federal Reserve yang dapat menggambar ulang peta investasi global.

🔥 Kejutan Pasar: Fed Pertahankan Suku Bunga – Apa Selanjutnya?⚠️ Fed Bekukan Suku Bunga,
Fed Tetap Hati-hati Sementara Inflasi Meningkat! 🚨 Keputusan Besar Fed: Tidak Ada Penurunan, Tapi Masalah di Depan?
Sebelum saya mulai...🔥Saya mungkin akan menjadikan👉 konten saya pribadi segera, dan konten saya hanya akan ditampilkan kepada pengikut saya. jadi pastikan untuk mengikuti saya di sini, agar kamu tidak ketinggalan ini dan konten saya di masa depan.
—Federal Reserve baru saja mengumumkan bahwa mereka akan mempertahankan suku bunga tidak berubah di 4.25-4.5% 📉, yang berarti biaya pinjaman tetap sama... untuk sekarang. Tapi inilah twist-nya – mereka menaikkan proyeksi inflasi sambil menurunkan ekspektasi pertumbuhan untuk 2025. 🤯