war

The conflict started Feb 28, 2026 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran. It’s now been running ∼3 months.
Where things stand right now:
1. Fragile ceasefire in place since April 8, but it’s shaky. On Tuesday the US carried out strikes in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province targeting missile sites and boats laying mines. The US calls it “defensive”, Iran calls it a “gross violation” of the ceasefire.
2. Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed. It normally carries ∼20% of global oil/LNG. Reopening it is the main condition for the ceasefire holding. Talks are ongoing in Qatar/Islamabad, but no signed deal yet.
3. Casualties: Estimates vary. Iran reports 3,468 killed, 26,500 injured. US/Israel estimate 6,000+ Iranian military killed. US losses: 15 killed, 538 wounded.
4. Negotiations: Both sides say progress on a memo to halt war and restart shipping, with 60 days to tackle nuclear issues. Iran wants $24B in frozen assets released. Trump says deal “proceeding nicely” but ready for more strikes.
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Impact on international markets
The war has been the main driver of energy and risk markets since Feb:
1. Oil & Energy
- Brent spiked to ∼$100/barrel after the latest US strikes. It jumped 3.6-4% on Tuesday alone.
- WTI diverged: Fell to $93.89 as US markets caught up to Monday’s selloff.
- Supply shock: Closure of Hormuz has cut ∼9-11 million bpd of supply. Analysts now expect a 750k bpd deficit for 2026 vs a 1.63M bpd surplus forecast before the war.
- Outlook: Goldman now sees Brent averaging $85 for 2026. J.P. Morgan expects $100 in Q2 2026, falling to $80 by year-end. If Hormuz stays closed 4-6 weeks, Brent could hit $100+.
2. Equities
- US markets mixed: S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs Tuesday on AI optimism and hope for a deal. Dow was down.
- Europe slipped: STOXX 600 fell 0.6% on doubts about peace.
- Asia up: Nikkei jumped 1.8% to record levels. Gulf markets mostly advanced on peace hopes.
- Energy stocks volatile: Energy equities rallied with oil, but fell hard when ceasefire hopes rose. Exxon, Chevron down 6%+ on ceasefire news.
3. Broader macro effects
- Inflation pressure: Elevated oil is feeding into fuel, fertilizer, food costs. Analysts warn stagflation risk if Hormuz stays closed.
- Central banks: Fed, ECB, BOE rate paths are shifting as markets now price higher inflation risk. BOJ says Middle East will factor into rate-hike timing.
- Dollar: Gained as safe haven. Dollar index at 99.09.
- Demand impact: S&P Global cut 2026 oil demand growth forecast by 700k bpd to 400k bpd. About 40% of global refining capacity affected.
4. Market sentiment
Markets are pricing in “a lot of good news” on a deal. If a real agreement hits, analysts think markets are “ready to take off”. But every strike/flare-up causes oil spikes and equity jitters.
Bottom line:
You’re in a ceasefire-but-not-peace phase. Markets are volatile and hinged on 2 things: 1) Does Hormuz reopen, and 2) Do US-Iran talks produce a signed deal on nuclear/uranium issues. Until then expect oil near $95-100 and elevated geopolitical risk premium across equities and currencies.
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