Feb 24 delivered a clear risk-off tape. Cross-asset sentiment deteriorated fast, pulling equities and Bitcoin lower as positioning shifted defensive. Gold — despite its strong structural trend — saw profit-taking off record highs, which is consistent with crowded positioning getting lightened when liquidity tightens. In risk-off, the first move is rarely “valuation,” it’s flow: reduce beta, raise cash, shorten duration.
Gold backing off highs is healthy in context; it’s not a trend break, it’s a reset. Silver holding up relatively better points to selective demand rather than a broad, indiscriminate haven bid. The bigger signal is psychological: markets are pricing fear, and fear typically widens ranges and punishes impatience.
Until volatility compresses and flows regain consistency, expect chop and failed follow-through. Historically, extreme-fear regimes can set up stabilization, but the confirmation tells are straightforward: lower realized vol + visible institutional re-risking.
