The Chicago Business Barometer for February showed strong improvements across production, employment, new orders and deliveries, see chart below. Perhaps we are underestimating the positive effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which took effect on January 1. The CBO estimates that it will boost GDP growth by 0.9% in 2026, and the chart below suggests that nonfarm payrolls in February could be significantly stronger than the 58,000 currently expected by consensus.

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