The Federal Reserve is in a policy wait-and-see period before the "Powell's curtain call".
Market Expectations: Holding steady is the general expectation that the interest rate cut cycle will restart after Powell steps down in May with the new chairman.
How Powell balances the recession risk of the "February non-farm payrolls surprise" with the secondary inflation concerns brought by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the interest rate center may collectively rise.
Geopolitical Qualitative: Powell's tolerance for soaring oil prices will determine whether the big cake can hold steady at the 74500 mark.
Technical Aspect: The daily line is blocked at 76000, forming a double top embryo. The 4-hour MACD shows signs of a dead cross, but the moving averages are still in a bullish arrangement. 73500 is the short-term lifeline, if it fails, then look at 72000. Breaking 76000 will open up new space.