Dua Bank Sentral Sedang Memperketat Secara Bersamaan, Inilah Apa yang Secara Historis Terjadi pada Bitcoin

lishanhe10 · 2026-06-14T12:48:09.000Z

Bank Sentral AS dan Bank of Japan sama-sama memperketat kebijakan moneter di minggu yang sama. Terakhir kali ini terjadi, Bitcoin anjlok 30%. Bank of Japan menaikkan suku bunga acuan menjadi 1,0% dari 0,75% pada pertemuan 15–16 Juni. Bitcoin dan cryptocurrency lainnya kembali mendapat perhatian makro akibat hal ini. Bitcoin turun sekitar 3% setelah kenaikan suku bunga BOJ sebelumnya pada bulan Januari, menunjukkan sensitivitas crypto terhadap kebijakan moneter Jepang. Investing.com Secara bersamaan, Fed AS akan melakukan pertemuan pada 16–17 Juni. Meskipun tidak ada perubahan suku bunga yang diharapkan, plot titik bisa memberi sinyal kenaikan yang akan datang pada 2026. Polymarket mematok peluang 51% untuk setidaknya satu kenaikan suku bunga AS sebelum Desember.

The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are both tightening monetary policy in the same week. The last time something like this happened, Bitcoin dropped 30%.
The Bank of Japan is raising its benchmark rate to 1.0% from 0.75% at its June 15–16 meeting. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have come under renewed macro scrutiny as a result. Bitcoin fell about 3% after the BOJ's previous rate increase in January, highlighting crypto's sensitivity to Japanese monetary policy. Investing.com
Simultaneously, the US Fed is meeting June 16–17. While no rate change is expected, the dot plot could signal hikes coming later in 2026. Polymarket prices 51% odds of at least one US hike before December.
Two of the world's most powerful central banks tightening simultaneously creates a specific problem for Bitcoin.
Japan's long period of ultra-low rates fueled a massive yen carry trade, where investors borrowed cheaply in yen to fund higher-yielding investments worldwide — including cryptocurrencies and growth equities. A rate hike and resulting yen strengthening triggers an unwind of those positions. Investing.com
When the carry trade unwinds, investors sell risk assets to pay back yen-denominated loans. Bitcoin, as the most liquid risk asset available 24/7, gets hit first and hardest.
The January 2025 BOJ hike to 0.50% drove a 25–31% Bitcoin drop over 20 days. Each subsequent move has unwound yen carry trade positions and forced liquidations across leveraged crypto holdings. CryptoRank.io
The bullish escape valve? Oil prices falling on the Iran deal reduce the BOJ's inflation justification — potentially causing them to signal a pause after this hike. If the BOJ signals "one and done," the carry trade unwind stays contained.
This week has more moving parts than any single week in 2026. Two central banks. One peace deal. One dot plot. One potential Bitcoin bottom call from Standard Chartered.
Position accordingly. Breathe deeply. And keep some dry powder just in case.
DYOR. Not financial advice#BitcoinReboundsTo$64K #ZcashResumesOrchardTransactionsAfterAIAudit #IndiaFlagsUnreportedCryptoIncome #JPMorganCEOFightsCLARITYAct 