The most respected research firm in crypto just dropped a bomb — and the market hasn't fully priced it in yet.
Galaxy Research says Bitcoin may not have bottomed yet, with cycle data pointing to a $40,000–$46,000 base-case floor between now and Q4 2026. CoinDesk
That's another 30–37% drop from current levels. From a firm that gets these calls right more often than not.
Here's the case for why they might be correct.
Bitcoin's current bear market started from an all-time high of $126,200. Previous cycle drawdowns from ATH: 2018 saw -84%. 2022 saw -77%. If this cycle follows that pattern — even at the shallower end — a $40,000–$46,000 target is mathematically consistent.
Bitcoin ETF outflows topped $4.4 billion across 13 trading sessions. Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022. The SEC put digital assets at the heart of its 2026–2030 strategic plan. Ethereum slipped under $2,000. The confluence of catalysts driving this bear move is real. CoinGape
But here's the case for why Galaxy might be wrong.
The Iran peace deal is being signed. Fed rate hike cycle may be ending. Corporate treasuries are accumulating at sub-$65K. The 200-week MA has never failed to produce a recovery. And institutional OTC buying is accelerating — not stopping.
Two valid cases. Diametrically opposite outcomes. This is exactly what a market bottom feels like from the inside.
What you do with this information is your decision. But ignoring it entirely isn't a strategy.
DYOR. Not financial advice#USDraftMemoWouldUnfreeze$25BIranAssets #ZcashResumesOrchardTransactionsAfterAIAudit $BTC
