Ethereum ($ETH ) is entering the weekend stuck just beneath its key trend-channel resistance, and all current signals suggest a low-volatility, range-bound phase rather than a decisive breakout. Market structure, volume behavior, and historical patterns are aligning toward consolidation.
๐ Market Context โ Why a Quiet Weekend Is the Base Case
Crypto markets, including Ethereum, rarely deliver major channel breakouts on weekends, especially when several conditions stack together:
๐ Declining trading volume
๐ง Thin liquidity toward year-end
๐งฉ Lack of impulsive structure on lower timeframes
This exact setup is now visible on ETH charts, reinforcing expectations of sideways movement rather than a trend-defining move
๐ Trend Channel Status & Higher-Timeframe Bias
$ETH remains below the upper boundary of its broader trend channel, while still holding above the channelโs midpoint, currently near:
$2,800 โ $2,810
โ ๏ธ A clean break below this midline would materially increase the probability of a deeper downside continuation.
๐ฝ Downside Risk Zone (Wave 5 Scenario)
If bearish momentum confirms, the next logical target zone sits at:
$2,626 โ $2,258
At this point, a macro top is not confirmed, but early warning signs suggest the prior corrective structure may already be complete.
๐ Elliott Wave Outlook โ Two Scenarios in Play
๐ก Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Yellow Count)
Wave 4 likely ended at the November 21 low
ETH may now be entering a Wave 5 impulsive decline
Structure would unfold as a five-wave move lower
๐ Confirmation level: Below $2,800
๐ต Scenario 2: Bullish Diagonal Alternative
November 21 may already mark a meaningful bottom
A diagonal pattern could be developing
Structure is not ideal, but still valid if confirmed
๐ Confirmation level: Sustained break above $3,245
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โฑ Weekend Trading Range โ Key Levels to Watch
$ETH continues to respect a classic low-volume weekend range:
๐ข Support Zone:
$2,983 โ $3,068
Price has already reacted positively from this area
๐ด Resistance Zone:
$3,156 โ $3,245
Converges with the upper trend-channel boundary
Current price action is best interpreted as a corrective bounce (Wave 2) within a broader bearish structure โ not the start of a fresh impulsive rally.
๐ A volatility pickup is
possible late Sunday, but until then, range trading remains the higher-probability outcome.
