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【The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut drama is not over! January hits the pause button, but will there be three more rate cuts this year?】

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December is full of "gunpowder smell"! On one side, two regional Fed presidents firmly oppose the rate cut, while on the other side, there are board members demanding a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points. Although the final compromise was at 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 3.5%-3.75%, this internal disagreement has revealed the intense game of policy paths.

Chairman Powell's statement after the meeting seems "hawkish", emphasizing the need to "watch economic data", directly suggesting that the January meeting will likely remain unchanged. However, with the rotation of voting members, the hawkish voices may not necessarily maintain the upper hand—the key turning point may be in the spring.

Some institutions sharply point out: the true priority of the Federal Reserve is not inflation, but job preservation! As long as the labor market shows weakness, rate cuts will return to the agenda. Currently, it is predicted that March may likely take action again, initiating a "quarterly rate cut" rhythm, with a total of possibly three rate cuts for the year. This means that by June, the interest rate may drop to 3%-3.25%, which is more aggressive than the market's current expectation of two rate cuts!#加密市场观察

Why are we so certain? Besides employment data, the new chairman taking office in May may also bring a more dovish direction. Although inflation data fluctuates, the Fed's response mechanism is clear: stability is more important than aggressiveness.

In 2025, the Federal Reserve's rate cut path remains full of uncertainties, but one thing is certain: pausing does not mean stopping, the good drama is yet to come.

What do you think? Is it too optimistic to expect three rate cuts this year? Feel free to leave your predictions in the comments!