Most new tokens were in Infrastructure and AI,making up 60% of launches. They were also the worst performers.
Infrastructure
Sample Size: 46 projects
Median FDV Change: -72%
% in the Green: 9%
AI
Sample Size: 23 projects
Median FDV Change: -82%
% in the Green: 13%
DeFi
Sample Size: 19 projects
Median FDV Change: -52%
% in the Green: 32%
Note: The highest "hit rate," but more about survival than massive wins.
Perp DEX
Sample Size: 3 projects
Average FDV Change: +213%
Note: A tiny, standout category driven by major players like Hyperliquid.
🔮 The #1 Predictor of Failure: High Initial FDV
The data is clear:the higher a project's starting valuation, the worse it performed. This was the single clearest finding of the year.
Starting FDV Bucket & Performance
$25M - $200M FDV
Projects: 35
Median FDV Change: -26%
Survival Rate (% Green): 40%
$210M - $489M FDV
Projects: 24
Median FDV Change: -73%
Survival Rate (% Green): 13%
$500M - $940M FDV
Projects: 29
Median FDV Change: -82%
Survival Rate (% Green): 3%
$957M+ FDV (Incl. 28 projects ≥$1B)
Projects: 30
Median FDV Change: -83%
Survival Rate (% Green): 0%
💎 Key Takeaways for Your Strategy
TGEs Are Not "Early Access" Anymore: For most projects, the token launch was the price top, not a floor. Participating is now a bet on finding extreme outliers.
Valuation Matters Most: The single best filter for avoiding losses was a low initial FDV. Projects launching under $200M had a far greater chance of success.
Beware the Hype Cycle: The most hyped sectors (Infra, AI) and the most hyped projects (high FDV) delivered the worst median returns. In 2025, patience and skepticism paid off.
📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR). The crypto market is highly volatile and unpredictable.
Community Question: Did you participate in any 2025 TGEs? What was your experience with post-launch performance?