In 2025 alone, the U.S. dollar lost roughly 13% of its value.
That’s not noise.
That’s a signal.
When a global reserve currency starts bleeding like this, everything else follows: government shutdowns, rising debt, repo market stress, and accelerating de-dollarization. These aren’t separate events — they’re connected.
Let’s break down what’s unfolding.
📉 Markets Are Flashing Warning Signs
Several indicators now look eerily similar to pre-2008 conditions:
The Fed’s emergency repo usage has spiked
Private lenders are tightening liquidity between themselves
The S&P 500 / Gold ratio just broke key support (classic risk-off behavior)
The Sahm Rule is back in the danger zone, hovering near recession levels
This is exactly how stress begins to surface in the financial system.
🏢 The $800B Commercial Real Estate Problem
Over $800 billion in commercial real estate debt matures this year.
Here’s the issue:
Interest rates are still high
Property values are significantly lower
Refinancing is becoming extremely difficult
Banks are already offloading this risk quietly, often at discounts. This pressure hasn’t fully hit headlines yet — but it’s building underneath.
👥 Consumers and Businesses Are Cracking
The strain is spreading across the economy:
Credit card delinquencies (90+ days) are rising toward 2011 levels
Auto loans and revolving credit are slipping deeper into serious delinquency
Total household debt is estimated around $18.5 trillion entering 2026
Business bankruptcies are up roughly 12% year over year
Middle-market companies face a refinancing wall they can’t clear at current rates
This isn’t isolated weakness. It’s systemic.
🌍 De-Dollarization Is Accelerating
The USD was once the undisputed reserve currency.
Now, large portions of trade between Russia, China, and India are settled outside the dollar.
At the same time, U.S. interest payments are approaching $1 trillion annually.
That leaves policymakers with only two real options:
Inflate the debt away
Or let parts of the system break
Neither path is painless.
In simple terms: there is no clean solution.
🧭 What This Means
This isn’t about fear — it’s about preparation.
Periods like this are when old systems strain and new opportunities emerge. Historically, these transitions create massive wealth transfers for those paying attention early.
Waiting for headlines usually means arriving late.
I’ve spent years studying macro cycles and market structure, and many of these signals tend to appear before major shifts.
Watch liquidity. Watch credit. Watch currency strength.
The next phase is approaching fast.
Stay sharp. Position wisely.
#macro #markets #bitcoin #crypto #economy
