When I say Bitcoin could crash, I don’t mean a one-day flash dump like October 10. That’s just a market glitch, not a real crash.
A true crash = multiple days of selling triggered by a Black Swan event, hitting all markets, not just crypto. ⚡
💡 History Lesson:
2022: $48K → $25K over 3 weeks (rate hikes + QT) ✅ Black Swan
Ukraine war: $42K → $34K, then bounced to $48K ❌ Not a true crash
Geopolitical headlines (like Iran) usually only cause temporary dips, likely $82K–$84K, not full-blown crashes.
Current Bitcoin Structure 📊
Bear flag: $80K–$97K
History’s mirror (2022): $32K–$48K
Potential path if history repeats:
Dip to $82K–$84K
Bounce to $92K–$93K
Possible deep drop below $74K
⚠️ Watch momentum:
Slow, lazy grind = corrective rally
Sharp V-shaped recovery = bottom already made
If price breaks $93K with strong momentum, the bearish scenario fails → reassess.
💥 Key takeaway:
Price action tells the story — not headlines, not speculation. Every level is a battle between bulls and bears, written in the charts.