btcprice

Bitcoin (BTC) has once again captured the attention of the crypto market with its recent price movements, sparking debate about the enduring relevance of its historical four-year halving cycle. A recent report from Kaiko Research suggests that the latest sell-off, which saw Bitcoin fall from a cycle peak near $126,000 to the $60,000–$70,000 range in early February—a drawdown of approximately 52%—actually reinforces, rather than undermines, this long-standing pattern .
Kaiko's analysis indicates that this significant correction is consistent with previous post-halving bear markets, which have historically experienced 50-80% drawdowns following cycle peaks. The 2024 halving in April was followed by Bitcoin topping out roughly 12–18 months later, aligning closely with prior cycles where such peaks typically preceded extended bear markets lasting about a year before the next accumulation phase . This suggests a transition from the euphoric post-halving phase into an expected corrective period.
While some experts, like Arthur Hayes, have challenged the four-year cycle's continued relevance, pointing to global liquidity as a more dominant driver, and others propose a five-year cycle due to institutional participation and macroeconomic shifts, the current price action provides a compelling argument for the cycle's resilience .
From a technical perspective, current indicators for Bitcoin suggest a cautious outlook. As of February 10, 2026, the overall technical summary points to a Strong Sell based on various moving averages and other technical indicators .
•RSI (14-day): The Relative Strength Index for Bitcoin over the 14-day period is 40.447, indicating a 'Sell' signal . This suggests that the asset is not currently overbought, but also lacks strong buying momentum.
•Moving Averages: Both the 5-day (69213.6) and 50-day (70250.0) moving averages are signaling 'Sell', with a comprehensive analysis of moving averages from MA5 to MA200 showing 0 Buy signals and 12 Sell signals . This reinforces a bearish short-to-medium term outlook.
•MACD: While some sources indicate a 'Buy' signal for MACD, others show a 'Sell' signal, highlighting potential divergence or differing timeframes in analysis. For instance, one source indicates MACD(12,26) at -92.23, signaling 'Sell' , while another shows MACD(12,26) at 64, signaling 'Buy' . This discrepancy suggests the need for careful consideration of the timeframe and specific MACD settings.
The confluence of historical cycle patterns and current technical indicators suggests that Bitcoin may be in a corrective phase, consistent with post-halving dynamics. While the recent sell-off has been significant, it aligns with the expected drawdowns seen in previous cycles. The increasing institutional participation, as evidenced by spot Bitcoin ETF outflows during the sell-off, indicates that while the market is maturing, it is not immune to volatility in both directions .
Future movements will likely be influenced by the interplay of this four-year cycle, global liquidity conditions, and broader macroeconomic factors. A sustained period of accumulation could follow this corrective phase, potentially setting the stage for the next bull run in line with historical patterns.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's four-year cycle? Do you believe it will continue to dictate market movements, or are new factors at play? Share your insights and analysis in the comments below!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All investment decisions should be based on your own thorough research and risk assessment. Always do your own research (DYOR).
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