bitcoincycleanalysis

$BTC | The 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap is the most under-rated long-horizon cycle indicator in continuous use. Originally popularised by Phillip Swift in 2019. The mechanic: colour-code each weekly close by its percentage distance from the 200-week moving average. Below 2x of the 200WMA historically marks cycle accumulation; above 6x historically marks cycle euphoria.

Why the 200WMA-distance ratio works. The 200WMA captures the long-term price floor that has held across every Bitcoin cycle since 2013. The ratio of spot to the 200WMA tells you how stretched current price is versus the structural baseline. Deep blue heatmap zones (close to 1x or below) cluster at cycle bottoms. Red heatmap zones (5x or above) cluster at cycle tops.

Historical pattern across documented BTC cycle inflections:
- 2013-12 cycle top: heatmap deep red, ratio approximately 5x of the 200WMA
- 2017-12 cycle top: heatmap red, ratio approximately 4.4x
- 2021-04 cycle top: heatmap orange, ratio approximately 3.2x (lower than prior cycles, consistent with the diminishing-amplitude thesis)
- 2015-01, 2018-12, 2022-11 cycle bottoms: all printed deep blue heatmap, ratio at or below 1.2x

For Australian residents the practical layer: 200WMA heatmap is the cleanest signal for "is this a cycle bottom" sizing-in decisions. When the heatmap goes deep blue, the long-horizon CGT-eligibility clock (12-month minimum hold for the 50 percent discount) starts at the buy date. Front-loading entries during deep-blue zones positions parcels for the next cycle distribution to fall AFTER the 12-month threshold, which is the single most-expensive timing mistake to avoid at the AU 47 percent top marginal rate.

https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-200-week-ma-heatmap/

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$BTC | Mayer Multiple reading right now: 1.18, down from 2.07 at the late-2025 cycle top.

Mayer = BTC price / 200-day moving average. Above 2.4 historically marks cycle euphoria zones - 2013-12 hit 3.4, 2017-12 hit 2.8, 2021-04 hit 2.7. Below 0.8 marks cycle accumulation - 2015-01 0.55, 2018-12 0.65, 2022-11 0.6.

Current 1.18 sits in the Neutral band. Six months ago we were tagging the euphoria threshold; six months from now, if the cycle template holds, Mayer is below 0.9 and the accumulation framework activates. On the desk we used to treat Mayer 0.8 as the "start sizing in" trigger, not the "buy everything" signal - the 2018 bear taught me Mayer can sit below 0.8 for 9 weeks before the actual capitulation print.

Honest limitation: Mayer Multiple by itself missed the 2021-11 echo top because price went sideways while the 200DMA caught up. That is why it is one of 48 signals in the SatoshiMacro Model, not the whole model.

https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-mayer-multiple/

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$BTC | Il Pi Cycle Top è scattato al picco più recente del ciclo. Circa sei mesi dopo il segnale, BTC si trova a US$150.220 mentre l'indicatore sta decisamente raffreddando.

Il Pi Cycle Top è il primitivo di ciclo superiore più semplice on-chain: la media mobile a 111 giorni incrocia sopra la media mobile a 350 giorni moltiplicata per 2. Ha attivato il segnale vicino alla maggior parte dei principali picchi ciclici di BTC dal 2013, inclusi aprile 2013, novembre 2013, dicembre 2017 e aprile 2021 (il picco di eco del 2021-11 non ha prodotto un nuovo segnale, una limitazione documentata).

Nel pannello dei segnali SMM a 48 segnali, ponderiamo il Pi Cycle Top come una conferma a singolo livello, non come un trigger autonomo.

Grafico completo, metodologia e ogni fuoco storico: https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-pi-cycle-top-indicator/

Lettura al 25 maggio 2026.

#BitcoinCycleAnalysis #OnChain #PiCycleTop #SatoshiMacro